Week 7 of the NFL Season has arrived, and we are back with another set of Best Bets from our TSN Betting team.
If you’re looking for more plays, check out Domenic Padula’s Week 6 Playbook for all of TSN’s lead sports betting analysts’ plays for the day.
Let’s get to the action. Here are our team’s best bets.
Domenic Padula: Bijan Robinson over 75.5 rushing yards
The Falcons continue to lean heavily on two key players on offence. Drake London at wide receiver. NFL scrimmage yards leader Bijan Robinson at running back. On the road against the Niners, I expect them to run the football and try to keep the football out of Michael Penix’s hands as much as possible. I’ll go with the Robinson rushing yards over as a best bet this week.
Connor Ford: Travis Kelce 4+ Receptions + Chiefs To Win (-110 YourWay SGP)
All eyes will be on Rashee Rice this week as he’s set to make his return against the Raiders following a 6-game suspension. However, don’t forget about the other weapons in this Chiefs offence. Travis Kelce may not be as dominant as he once was, but his connection with Patrick Mahomes is still alive and well.
We all know Andy Reid loves to throw the football. It’s no surprise that the Chiefs rank 1st in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+9.7) this season. As for Kelce, he’s run the second most routes among tight ends this season. Even as a big favourite – you can bank on the Chiefs attacking through the air, especially with a non-existent run game.
Kelce’s target share numbers have steadily declined, but he’s still recorded at least four receptions in five straight games. He’s also historically dominated the Raiders, hitting this number in 16 of the last 17 meetings. 4+ receptions should be a safe floor in a plus matchup. I’ll add Chiefs ML to get rid of some of the juice. Let’s bounce back with a winner in Week 7!
Luke Bellus: Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers Under 48.5
Zig when others zag, that’s the key to NFL betting.
For my best bet this week, I’m targeting a game that initially seemed like the highest-scoring matchup on the board: Colts versus Chargers.
With both offences led by quarterbacks ranked in the top 10 for MVP odds on FanDuel, it’s easy to see why this game screams shootout.
Factor in defensive injuries for both teams and questionable weather across the country, and it’s no surprise this game is priced at +550 to have the most total points scored.
But I’m going the opposite way.
The Colts’ offence has been a standout story through the first six weeks of the 2025 season.
However, this will be only their third road game, having scored 41 points in Tennessee and 20 in Week 4 against the Rams. Now, as they head to Los Angeles to face one of the AFC’s top teams, I’m betting on Daniel Jones and the Colts being held in check.
On the Chargers’ side, Joe Alt remains sidelined with an ankle injury, and as long as he’s out, I’m fading their offence.
Since being drafted, Alt has played 20 games for the Chargers, who averaged 24 points per game with him in the lineup.
In the three games he’s missed, they’ve scored more than 10 points just once, averaging 16.3 points per game.
I’m no expert on offensive linemen, but since Alt was drafted, he’s been hailed as a future Hall of Famer—and the numbers back it up.
They say life’s too short to bet the under. I say life’s too long to bet the over.
Plug your nose and take the under.
