Well, the 2026-2027 Major League Baseball offseason is already shaping up to be a disaster.
The collective bargaining agreement between the MLB Player’s Association and the league expires in December 2026, and negotiations between the two sides were already expected to be contentious. But then the Los Angeles Dodgers, coming off back-to-back World Series wins, signed Kyle Tucker. And all hell broke loose.
Tucker’s deal, for 4-years and $240 million, though with that figure diminished by deferrals, is one that only a handful of teams can match. And for the Dodgers to add arguably the top available free agent, without taking on the risk of a long-term contract, has added yet another rallying cry for fans who want a salary cap.
A new report from The Athletic this week has suggested that owners and the league intend to take full advantage of the anger coming from fans and push for a salary cap in negotiations with players. And they’re willing to go far enough to potentially cancel games in the 2027 regular season to do so.
Former Chicago Cub Kyle Tucker. (Photo by Griffin Quinn/Getty Images)
Dodgers Willingness To Spend Provides Perfect Excuse For Ownership
The report from Evan Drellich quotes a source “briefed on ownership conversations,” who said that the other owners are “raging” in the aftermath of Tucker’s deal with the Dodgers. This contract also makes it “a 100 percent certainty” that the league will demand a salary cap. But most concerning is that Drellich’s source also said, “These guys are going to go for a cap no matter what it takes.”
Well, “no matter what it takes” is almost certainly canceled games. Because the MLBPA and prominent players have been adamant that they will never accept a salary cap. And for good reason.
Salary caps do not benefit players, because it limits the ability of star level talent to get market value for their services. It also does not lead to improved competitive balance. And it would be particularly ineffective in Major League Baseball. Why? Because even with a cap, and some level of floor, the smarter, bigger market teams will still have gigantic advantages.
Consider a hypothetical $250 million salary cap, with a $125 million salary floor. There were six teams that spent more on payroll than $250 million last year, and five teams that spent less than $125 million. The teams that spent under $125 million, the Athletics, White Sox, Marlins, Pirates, and Rays, will spend $125 million on salary. That’s it. We have decades of evidence now that teams like these will never spend more than the bare minimum.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays and Padres all spent more than $250 million. All those teams, except for maybe the Padres, will spend $250 million under this hypothetical cap system. That is still a gigantic disparity that provides immense advantages in acquiring top talent for the big market teams. Or in the Padres case, a small market team willing to spend money.
So, what is accomplished here? Well, top free agent talent will still go to the big market teams, it’s just that the top talent will be paid less. Will that make fans happy, that rich ownership groups are able to pocket more in profits? Apparently, yes. Will it make the Marlins or Athletics roster look more competitive relative to the Dodgers or Yankees? No, not really. Will it impact postseason results? Not even a little, because talent is one of just ten factors that impact outcomes in the small sample size of a playoff series.
Let’s say the Pirates are forced to spend $125 million on salary. Will they suddenly become bidders for Kyle Tucker or Tarik Skubal? No, of course not, because they still won’t be able to match offers from the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers. And if offers for stars are similar between teams, players will pick wherever they can earn the most in off-field revenue. Which would be big markets like LA or New York.
And it bears repeating, yet again, that money does not fix all problems. Let’s look at total payrolls from 2022-2025 for some big and small market organizations.
- #10 Boston Red Sox – $824 million
- #12 LA Angels – $705 million
- #13 San Francisco Giants – $698 million
- #14 St. Louis Cardinals – $688 million
- #15 Colorado Rockies – $591 million
- #19 Arizona Diamondbacks – $527 million
- #20 Milwaukee Brewers – $453 million
- #24 Cleveland Guardians – $356 million
- #26 Cincinnati Reds – $337 million
The Angels have made zero postseason appearances in that time frame, despite having Shohei Ohtani for two of those years. The Giants have made zero postseason appearances. The Cardinals made the wild card series in 2022, and got swept. They haven’t been back to the playoffs since. The Rockies just had one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball in 2025, and have a collective .356 winning percentage since 2022. The Diamondbacks, though, went to the World Series in 2023. The Brewers had the best record in baseball in 2025, and have made the postseason three straight seasons. In 2022, they were 86-76 and finished in second place. The Guardians have reached the playoffs in three of the last four seasons, advancing to the ALCS in 2024. The Reds made the playoffs in 2025, advancing past the New York Mets and their $350 million payroll.
The big market teams on this list, the Red Sox, Angels and Giants, have no postseason success to point to since 2022. Small market teams do. Big spending small market teams, like St. Louis and Colorado, have done little with their money. The point being that the salary cap won’t fix the problems with bad front offices. And it won’t stop the Dodgers from being smarter than others. Canceling games to get a cap would achieve nothing other than ruining the momentum the sport has built and potentially costing Major League Baseball a generation of fans.
Were owners to accept a $250 million cap and $225 million floor, that’d be one thing. But they won’t. Instead, we could increase penalties for big spending teams, redistribute those “luxury taxes” to the smaller market teams, and actually enforce existing rules that say those small market teams spend that revenue on payroll. It’ll never happen, because nobody cares if teams don’t spend. They care when they do.
