For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 14 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Cowboys at Lions (-3): I can’t believe the Cowboys are three-point dogs. Both of these teams have gotten plenty of nationally televised exposure over the last month, and the Cowboys have looked way better. Plus, Vegas is usually eager to overrate the Cowboys on their point spreads whenever their hype starts to take off, because they know delusional Cowboys fans will bite anyway.
But also, from a pure matchup perspective, as we have pointed out in recent weeks, if you can stop the Lions’ rushing attack, their offense just isn’t the same, and the Cowboys’ new-look heavy defensive front has certainly been effective against the run.
I’ll take the Cowboys to win this game outright, and sure, give me the points, too.
Commanders at Vikings (-2.5): Jayden Daniels may or may not play in this game. Daniels aside, the Commanders are getting healthier, with guys like Terry McLaurin returning to the lineup and their offense beginning to look a little bit like what they imagined before the season began. The Commanders’ defense is still trash, but that shouldn’t matter against a Vikings offense led by the highly disappointing J.J. McCarthy.
Dolphins (-2.5) at Jets: The Dolphins and Jets are a pair of teams whose seasons are long since over, and who are both pretty clearly candidates to select quarterbacks in the 2026 draft. Both teams are also playing hard, and doing everything they can to wreck their draft positioning.
I don’t love taking the Dolphins in a cold weather game, but they have actually looked like something close to a playoff team over the last month.
Titans at Browns (-4): Props to Cleveland fans if they can fill the stadium even halfway for this matchup. Big draft implications though!
Steelers at Ravens (-5.5): AFC North point differentials:
• Ravens: -4
• Steelers: -8
• Browns: -76
• Bengals: -94
Ever since the Steelers signed Sandy Hook conspiracy theorist Aaron Rodgers, they always felt destined to have their first losing season in over 20 years.
Saints at Buccaneers (-8.5): NFC South point differentials:
• Buccaneers: -22
• Falcons: -33
• Panthers: -50
• Saints: -113
The Saints haven’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Tyler Shough took over the reins in Week 8, and they have averaged 11.4 points per game during that span.
Seahawks (-7) at Falcons: The Seahawks have (mostly) smashed the bad teams on their schedule this season. The Falcons punctuated their atrocious 2025 season last week with a loss to the Jets.
Colts (-2) at Jaguars: After starting the season 7-1, the Colts have dropped three of their last four. They’re starting to look like frauds. I kinda like the Jags and their nasty pass rush to win this game as well as the AFC South.
Bengals at Bills (-5.5): I feel like this line would be something like Bills (-13) if Joe Burrow were still out. Cincinnati did thoroughly whoop on the Ravens Week 13, I suppose. I’m just staying away.
Broncos (-7.5) at Raiders: I’ve been saying each week that the Titans are the worst team in the NFL, but I think it’s probably now the Raiders.
Bears at Packers (-7): This is a HUGE game in the NFC North, obviously, that could ultimately shape seeding in the NFC playoffs.
I love this Packers defense. They stop the run and then unleash Micah Parsons from an assortment of alignments and sick him on opposing quarterbacks. But also, their offense has begun to take off a bit, with Jordan Love throwing for 4 TDs against the Lions on Thanksgiving. They also had a mini-bye in advance of this matchup.
The Bears are a fun team that is feeling themselves a little bit at the moment, especially as the current 1 seed in the NFC. They’re due for a little dose of reality. (I’ll take the 7 points, though.)
Rams (-8) at Cardinals: Are the Rams a team that comes back after a bad loss and just obliterates their next crappy opponent? I guess we’ll see.
The 3-9 Cardinals were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention Week 13, and they continue to limp to the finish line with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Jonathan Gannon’s only chance of keeping his job is if his cheap owner doesn’t want to pay him the final two years of his contract to go be a defensive backs coach for some other team.
Texans at Chiefs (-3.5): The only real argument for picking the Chiefs lately is something to the effect of, “They not actually going to miss the playoffs, right?” And then they burn you. Sign me up for more of that, I guess.
Eagles (-3) at Chargers: Ugh. I hate myself for picking the Eagles here. The Chargers don’t have a very good run defense, but the Eagles can’t run it against anyone, and the Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. I have very little confidence that the Eagles’ staff figured much out during their mini-bye.
BUT… the Chargers’ offensive line has been an absolute mess ever since they lost Joe Alt for the season with an ankle injury Week 9. A quick review:
• First, they lost LT Rashawn Slater for the season during training camp with a torn patellar tendon. Alt moved from RT to LT, and Trey Pipkins filled in at RT.
• Alt went down Week 9, and Jamaree Salyer filled in.
• In Week 10 against the Steelers, the Chargers started Austin Deculus at LT. That went badly, and he got benched.
• In Week 11 against the Jaguars, they turned to Trevor Penning, who they had dealt for at the trade deadline. He stunk, and got benched.
• After their Week 12 bye, they went back to Salyer Week 13 against the Raiders. He has been the best of the three, so he’ll probably start Week 14 against the Eagles.
Meanwhile, on the interior, the Chargers have RG Mekhi Becton, who has had a bad season and even got benched during the second half of the Chargers’ Week 11 game against the Jaguars; C Bradley Bozeman, who (grain of salt) is PFF’s 37th ranked center out of 37 centers; and LG Zion Johnson, the best remaining starting offensive lineman on the team, who is just a guy.
Add in that Justin Herbert is almost certain to be affected by a broken hand, even if it’s his non-throwing hand, and I actually have less confidence in the Chargers’ offense than I do in the Eagles’.
The Eagles win the turnover battle and the coaching staff leaves L.A. happy, even though nothing is fixed.
BYE: Giants, 49ers, Panthers, Patri*ts.
Survivor pick ☠️
The Bucs feel like a pretty safe pick this week against a Saints team that is completely inept offensively. And certainly, the Bucs need this game to avoid falling into a first-place tie with the idle Panthers. (I believe this is the furthest I have ever advanced in a survivor pool. I’m usually knocked out in like Week 2.)
- Week 1: Eagles ✅
- Week 2: Ravens ✅
- Week 3: Bills ✅
- Week 4: Broncos ✅
- Week 5: Lions ✅
- Week 6: Packers ✅
- Week 7: Chiefs ✅
- Week 8: Colts ✅
- Week 9: Rams ✅
- Week 10: Seahawks ✅
- Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
- Week 12: 49ers ✅
- Week 13: Chargers ✅
- Week 14: Buccaneers
• Picks against the spread: Cowboys (+3), Commanders (+2.5), Dolphins (-2.5), Ravens (-5.5), Jaguars (+2), Bears (+6.5), Chargers (+3).
• Eagles picks: 8-4
• 2025 season, straight up: 128-65-1 (0.662)
• 2025 season, ATS: 30-42-1 (0.418) 🤮
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 479-418-23 (0.534)
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