The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears squared off in Week 1. That feels like an eternity ago.
Since then, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy missed five games with a high-ankle sprain. Meanwhile, an imperfect Bears team has managed six wins against a relatively easy schedule.
These matchups are never simple for either side. When he was with the Detroit Lions, Bears coach Ben Johnson mostly got the best of Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is also quite familiar with Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen.
What do we expect to happen in this NFC North bout at U.S. Bank Stadium? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: The number of Vikings rushing attempts. It’s time. If not now, when would O’Connell push to get the run game going? He possesses two premium tackles. He drafted a left guard in the first round. He paid a premium to right guard Will Fries. Minnesota’s running backs room is not cheap. It employs a veteran fullback. The Vikings also have a highly paid tight end room and receivers who almost dictate light boxes by themselves. Everything is in their favor, and the developmental situation at quarterback nearly mandates that Minnesota move the ball on the ground. When the Vikings have had the lead, they’ve run the ball more than in any other season since O’Connell came to town, but this phase of the team needs to go from an off-speed pitch to a fastball. The Bears have some beef with defensive tackles Andrew Billings and Gervon Dexter Sr., and edge rusher Montez Sweat is productive. However, this is not a top-tier run-stopping unit. Enough is enough. The Vikings must run the football.
Krawczynski: Justin Jefferson. We wrote about it after the last game. Something did not look right with No. 18 in the loss to the Ravens, when he had just four catches for 37 yards. He has plenty of reasons to be frustrated, if indeed he is frustrated. The Vikings rely on Jefferson being relentless and unyielding, and he was neither against the Ravens. Unsurprisingly, Jefferson seems to be aware that he fell short of his own expectations. He posted a highlight of his incredible catch against the Buffalo Bills three years ago and wrote that, “I need to get back to Year 3 Jets.” Everything about him as a person and player suggests that he will return to form quickly, and the Vikings sure could use it Sunday against the Bears.
3 years later & this @JJettas2 catch is still crazy 😳 pic.twitter.com/l9Mqj7tF66
— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2025
Biggest concerns
Lewis: Caleb Williams’ athleticism. Few quarterbacks have ever moved like Williams does. That’s not hyperbole. If you question that, go rewatch last week’s Bears victory over the Giants. He evades pass rushers like he’s being operated with a joystick. Sometimes he’s having to create because he skips over reads over the middle of the field. That would be a major concern if he were not able to make magic out of the pocket, but he can. He turns the corner with speed. He throws on the run with a velocity that is hard to comprehend. (There was a second-half throw to tight end Colston Loveland in the Giants matchup that was jaw-dropping.) The Vikings must do everything they can to contain him in the pocket. When he escapes, tackling will be crucial. Minnesota’s defensive backs will have to stick to receivers, too. The Bears’ receiving corps has not been exceptional of late, but Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Loveland can cause problems.
Krawczynski: Ben Johnson’s scheme. It hasn’t always been smooth or pretty. It certainly hasn’t been easy. Still, Johnson and the Bears appear to be getting more comfortable with each other with each passing week. Johnson had a lot of success against Flores’ defense while he was the offensive coordinator in Detroit. The marriage with Williams may not be perfect. The Bears’ receivers may not be Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, but they are finding ways to win. It may look like luck, but the Vikings know all about how a little bit of that can build momentum throughout a season. Johnson has already had one look at the Vikings defense this season, which means he will likely be even better prepared to attack it on Sunday. Flores and the defense are going to need to play one of their best games to emerge victorious.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Dennis Allen’s defensive plan vs. J.J. McCarthy. What is preventing Allen from heating up McCarthy like Flores would against a young quarterback? Allen, the Bears’ defensive coordinator, blitzed McCarthy sparingly in Week 1. The four-man rush was capable in that game because the Vikings were starting Justin Skule at left tackle. With Christian Darrisaw in the fold, and the Bears without edge rusher Dayo Odeyingbo, they’re likely to switch it up. Allen’s third-down pressure package is menacing. He’ll line up seven defenders like a punt block, and you don’t know who’s coming and who’s dropping. He could deploy that for much of the game against McCarthy. If Allen harasses the young quarterback, can McCarthy hang in? Can he take hits? Can he get the ball to Jefferson and Jordan Addison over the top? Chicago is susceptible to big plays. It’s on the quarterback to convert them.
Krawczynski: Jefferson vs. the Bears’ banged-up secondary. He has historically had a ton of success against Chicago, and the Bears are still without top cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Kyler Gordon has been out with a shoulder injury as well. The Bears signed veteran CJ Gardner-Johnson at the end of last month, and he has made a strong first impression. Safety Jaquon Brisker got into a trash-talking match with Jefferson in Week 1, and it’s safe to say that the star receiver has not forgotten. The Bears will no doubt load up on Jefferson and try to make the Vikings win in other ways. If Jefferson gets back to his old self, it may not matter.
Justin Jefferson just spoke to reporters. Really just made very, very clear more than anything that frustration on Sunday is tied to pursuit of winning. Said he just wants to win, above all.
— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) November 13, 2025
Most interesting overall storyline
Lewis: Can McCarthy show progress? This will be game No. 5. The sample size is still minuscule, but it would be promising to see improvements with the pre-snap operation, accuracy and sped-up decision-making. Throwing the ball on target is the most pivotal point. McCarthy has shown flashes of on-the-money passes, but then he’ll spike a ball into the ground. His performance has lived on the polar ends of a continuum. Inching toward the middle more often would inspire more faith for the duration of this season and beyond. Nothing about the Bears defense says it should be difficult to throw against. It doesn’t generate quick pressure. Its cornerbacks are not lockdown players. Chicago has allowed one of the highest explosive pass rates of any NFL defense. Opportunities should be there for McCarthy. Hitting them more frequently is the most important facet of this game and season.
Krawczynski: How good are the Bears, really? Chicago comes in at 6-3, having won six of its last seven games. Those wins have come against the Cowboys, Commanders, Giants, Saints, Bengals and Raiders. That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents. Most of those games have been nail-biters as well. The Vikings cannot be considered an upper-echelon opponent at this point, but a mid-November win on the road against a division opponent would be a nice statement for the Bears to make. On the flip side, a loss would revive some of the same old questions about the legitimacy of their early success under Johnson.
How these teams match up from a data standpoint
Here is where each team ranks in 2025 in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule:
Vikings
Bears
Off turnovers
30th
4th
Def turnovers
22nd
1st
Off explosiveness
9th
1st
Def explosiveness
22nd
26th
Off efficiency
18th
17th
Def efficiency
13th
30th
Strength of schedule
17th
31st
Predictions
Lewis: Bears 27, Vikings 21. The Bears defense doesn’t have much high-end talent, but McCarthy’s inconsistencies are too vast for me to pick the Vikings. Turnover margin and penalties will be fascinating statistics to review. Quarterbacks drive outcomes in this league, and that’s the reason for this pick.
Krawczynski: Vikings 23, Bears 21. I’m probably a fool for doubting the Bears, but I’m just not quite convinced yet that they’re ready for prime time. A motivated Jefferson, a focused McCarthy and a determined O’Connell, who faced criticism this week for his play calling, feel like a good recipe for a bounce-back win.
