The Chicago Bears sit in first place both in the NFC North and the NFC as a whole, yet the Green Bay Packers top our playoff odds in the division. There’s a sense that the Bears have gotten to 9-3 by playing an easy schedule, and that’s certainly not wrong – they have had the second-easiest schedule in the league so far by DVOA. That’s about to change, and two games in three weeks against the Packers will likely decide the shape of both the North and the NFC as a whole.
It’s a big game this week, that’s what we’re saying. The winner is essentially already in the playoffs, with the Bears’ playoff odds dropping to 63% if they lose and the Packers falling to 75% with a loss. It’s not an absolute must win for either team, but the loser very much gets thrown down into the churn with the 49ers and Lions to try to secure one of those playoff spots. One top contender is going to be left out of the NFC playoffs, and the loser of this game might end up being it.
That makes this the most important Bears-Packers game in roughly a generation. They’ve never had a game this late in the season with both teams five games over .500 in the NFC North – you have to go back to 2001 and the NFC Central race, when Brett Favre and Ahman Green got the glory at Lambeau but Brian Urlacher and company still took down the division in the end. You don’t get many relevant games in the league’s oldest rivalry. There’s been only two seasons since realignment where both the Bears and Packers have finished with winning records; you have to go back to the 1960s to find the last time both teams were good at the same time for an extended period. So enjoy a couple key late-season matchups between these two; they don’t come around every day.
The Bears are, rightfully, the underdogs here, but they’ve just come off their second-best game of the year by DVOA and have been, generally, trending upwards. They’re not going to win this one on the road on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field if they have to get into a shootout between Caleb Williams and Jordan Love. Per StatsHub, Love is fourth in deep passing DVOA at 105.5%, while Williams has the second-most prayer yards (uncatchable air yards) with 1,709; the air game is not where Chicago can win this one. Instead, befitting the old-school nature of this rivalry, the Bears are going to have to repeat what they did to the Eagles and slam the ball down Green Bay’s throat on the ground.
CHICAGO, IL – NOVEMBER 24: Chicago Bears running back D’Andre Swift (4) reacts after a play during a regular season game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears on November 24, 2024, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire)
On Black Friday, the Bears had 281 rushing yards, over 100 more than any other team against Philly this season. And it was the inside zone what killed ‘em – 44.7% of Chicago’s runs against Philly were inside zone, to the tune of 7.2 yards per carry and a 54.8% DVOA. It’s not a one-game thing, either. Kyle Monangai is sixth in the league this year with 66 DYAR on inside zone carries and D’Andre Swift is seventh with 54. Chicago, as a whole, is fourth with a 9.1% DVOA on inside zone rushes, and only Buffalo has more yards than they do. To stop Chicago’s offense, you better be prepared to stop these interior rushes; otherwise, you’ll be chasing them all day long.
The worst team in the league at defending inside zone? The Green Bay Packers! While a few teams have allowed more yards or more yards per carry than Green Bay, their opponent-adjusted numbers are terrible. Their 31.1% DVOA against inside zone is the worst by leaps and bounds, and a recurring theme in their losses has been running backs attacking the interior of that run defense. Rico Dowdle had 17 inside zone carries for 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Carolina’s 16-13 win a few weeks ago, and Quinshon Judkins had 51 yards and 10.2 yards per carry in the Browns’ Week 3 upset. Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary of the Giants gave them fits as well, even if that ended up with a Packers win. It really is one of the few spots where this is a Bears strength going directly against a Packers weakness.
That’s odd, too, because Green Bay is broadly acceptable at defending the run, with a -10.1% DVOA. But that falls to 23rd at -5.1% at runs marked as guard or center and rises to seventh at -17.2% on runs marked as off-tackle or end. It’s when teams can succeed at running right at Devonte Wyatt and Colby Wooden that they have success against Green Bay; they rank just 22nd in power success despite being fifth in adjusted line yards – and Wyatt was a DNP at practice with an ankle injury, making things even more worrisome. Green Bay is not likely to give up as many huge explosive runs as the Eagles did against Chicago on Friday but stopping them from picking up needed runs in short yardage is going to be a real challenge.
CHICAGO, IL – JANUARY 03: Green Bay Packers linebacker Rashan Gary (52) points down field after a play in action during a game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers on January 03, 2021 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)
The way to avoid that, of course, is to flip the gamescript so Chicago has to abandon the run and get into that aforementioned shootout. Caleb Williams has gotten much better at avoiding sacks in Year 2, but he still completes just 39% of his passes under pressure. Get into a situation where Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary can just tee off, and it’s hard to come up with a way Chicago wins this.
But so long as things remain close, Chicago may not only have a chance but may well be favored. Chicago has been the third-best rushing team in the fourth quarter this season, and the best team in football at rushing when they have a lead with a 21.1% DVOA, averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. When they’ve got a lead, they shorten games and limit their chances to make mistakes; that’s a large part of how a team with a negative overall DVOA and a bad defense has managed to climb to 9-3. If you don’t jump them, Chicago can throttle you with that interior run game until the clock hits zeroes. If they can keep things to that sort of game, Chicago may well still be the top seed in the NFC by the time Sunday is over.
