On Saturday, the BYU football team will look to bounce back against TCU. The Cougars, who came in at no. 12 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, still maintain control of their own destiny to the Big 12 championship game. To keep control of their own destiny, however, the Cougars have to take care of business against the Horned Frogs on Saturday night.
BYU is favored by 4.5 points heading into this game. Depending on the model, advanced analytics either agree or disagree with oddsmakers. Some are more bullish on BYU’s chances than others.
BCFToys gives BYU a 72.1% chance to beat TCU with a projected final score of 30.2-21.6 in favor of the Cougars. BCFToys ranks BYU as the 18th team nationally with an opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of no. 18 nationally and an offensive ranking of 22nd nationally.
TCU ranks ranks 31st nationally with an offensive ranking of 32nd and a defensive rating of 32nd as well.
SP+, a predictive metric invented by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, predicted BYU-TCU.
SP+ gives BYU a 69% chance to win with an expected final score of 30-23. BYU ranks 22nd in SP+, headlined by the defense and special teams which ranks 19th and 22nd nationally, respectively. The BYU offense had been climbing the ranks before the Texas Tech game – the BYU offense dropped from 25th nationally to 39th after struggling against the Red Raiders.
TCU ranks 39th in SP+. The Horned Frogs are ranked 35th on offense, 47th on defense, and 120th on special teams. If there is one area where BYU has a clear advantage according to SP+, it would be in the third phase of the game: special teams.
FPI is slightly more bullish on BYU’s chances. FPI gives BYU a 73.8% chance to win.
CFB Graphs gives BYU a 59.8% chance to beat TCU with a projected final score of 27-22.
There are a few key areas where BYU should have an advantage in this game:
1. Moving the football on offense
Despite dropping nearly 20 spots after the Texas Tech game, BYU still ranks 29th in quality drive rate. The Horned Frogs allow a quality drive rate of 46.2% which ranks 96th nationally. The data suggests BYU will be able to move the ball in this game.
BYU has also climbed up to 63rd in points per quality drive after spending the first month of the season in the 90’s in that metric.
2. Success on early downs on defense
BYU has been relatively good at putting offenses behind the chains this season. BYU ranks 34th in early down defensive success rate. TCU has struggled to stay ahead of the chains on offense, ranking 83rd in early down success rate.
In other words, BYU should have chances to get off the field on third down.
At that point, it will come down to strength-on-strength: BYU’s third down defense against TCU’s third down offense. BYU ranks 15th in third down success rate defense and TCU ranks 15th in third down success rate on offense. Josh Hoover is capable of making really high-level throws on third down, so the BYU defense will be tested.
