From unpredictable, to nearly unfathomable.
A sport that can kindly be characterized as “chaotic” was hit by a bombshell last weekend, with Penn State firing football coach James Franklin – and paying him close to $50 million on his way out the door.
But just as the Nittany Lions move on, so does the rest of college football. We’re already into Week 8, and getting deeper into conference play – which means moving forward, these games bear even more weight.
The playoff race is heating up, as is the Heisman conversation. And though we’re far from finished, we’re beginning to get some semblance of an idea about what we can expect come December – though it’s still best to proceed with caution.
Without further delay, five storylines for this weekend.
Miami’s defence is ready to feast on Louisville
Friday night games have a tendency to get a bit wacky, and Miami and Louisville set a high standard for the extraordinary in their meeting last season – a 52-45 Hurricanes win, in which the two teams combined for 986 yards of total offence.
This time around, scoring shouldn’t come as easy.
Louisville and Miami have the best two defences in the ACC in terms of yards allowed, and the Hurricanes have given up five fewer points per game (13.6) than any other team in the conference, despite having faced three Top 20 opponents.
Ruben Bain Jr. has emerged as one of the most disruptive edge rushers in college football, pairing with Canadian Akheem Mesidor to give Miami one of the most lethal one-two punches in college football — and that duo could have a field day against a Louisville offensive line that’s surrendered seven sacks over its past two games.
On offence, Carson Beck has benefitted from a capable surrounding cast, which is something he lacked last year for the better part of a mistake-ridden season at Georgia.
Sixth-year senior CJ Daniels and true freshman Malachi Toney each caught two touchdown passes in Week 6 against Florida State – a 28-22 win that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score might suggest. To this point, Beck has 11 touchdowns with just three interceptions, and leads all ACC passers in completion percentage (73.4) and QBR (168.5).
Moving forward, and including Louisville, Miami doesn’t have a remaining opponent that’s currently ranked. Mario Cristobal’s team has a clear path to the playoffs, but certainly will have its guard up – last season, the Hurricanes started 9-0 behind Cam Ward before being tripped and ultimately eliminated by Georgia Tech and Syracuse in the final three weeks.
It’s time to start taking Indiana seriously
We learned everything we needed to know about the Hoosiers last week, when they stormed into Eugene and handed Oregon its first in-season loss in nearly two years.
And all those whispers about beating up on soft opponents – and about being unable to win the big ones, after last year’s flops against Ohio State and Notre Dame – are looking like moot points these days.
At this stage, anyone still preying on an Indiana meltdown might have to wait until the Big Ten title game, because it’s looking more and more like Curt Cignetti’s team might just roll all the way there.
Last Saturday’s win might stand as the best in all of college football this year, and really, a defining moment for the losingest program in the history of the sport. Cignetti’s move from James Madison to Bloomington two winters ago barely created a ripple in the Big Ten, but the aftershock has been overwhelming.
In Week 4, Indiana had its biggest ever win over a Top 10 team – a 63-10 thrashing of then-ninth-ranked Illinois – and backed it with a precise, clinical 30-20 win over the Ducks. The Hoosiers outgained Oregon 326 to 286, and limited Heisman candidate Dante Moore to just 186 yards while picking him off twice.
Now, the Heisman spotlight shifts to Fernando Mendoza, who’s part of a current trio of frontrunners alongside Beck and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Mendoza saved his best for last against Oregon, hitting Elijah Sarratt for a fourth-quarter, go-ahead touchdown that gave the Hoosiers a lead they never relinquished. In six games, Mendoza has passed for 1,423 yards with 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Indiana is home to Michigan State this weekend, and its biggest remaining game still looks like a November visit to Penn State – though that feels considerably less challenging after the earthshaking collapse in State College over the last three weeks. In all, Indiana’s six remaining opponents are 3-15 in Big Ten play this season.
Barring a stumble, Indiana’s path to an undefeated season is currently clear. And the way things are shaping up, a rematch with Ohio State in early December is looking more than likely.
Can Ole Miss beat Georgia for the second straight season?
Kirby Smart hasn’t encountered a problem quite like Alabama in his 10 seasons in Athens, but might run head-on into a new narrative if Georgia suffers another slip up this weekend against Ole Miss.
Since 2021, only two SEC teams have beaten Georgia: The Crimson Tide – four times, including once in the conference title game – and Ole Miss, whose fans stormed the field in Oxford last October after a 28-10 win last November.
On Saturday, Smart will renew acquaintances with old friend Lane Kiffin, whose team is 6-0 with a resume-padding win over then-fourth-ranked LSU already on its record. Trinidad Chambliss has emerged as one of the best stories in the sport – transferring from Division II Ferris State, then replacing injured starter Austin Simmons – and continued his fairytale season with three touchdowns in a 24-21 win over Washington State last week.
Ole Miss isn’t the only team breathing a little lighter after nearly being upset. And to win this weekend, Georgia might need to overcome a bit of a concerning trend.
A week ago, Smart’s team needed to come back from 10 points down to win in Auburn, and that was after falling behind by two touchdowns in the first half against Tennessee and Alabama in September. In all, Georgia has trailed by double digits in the first half of seven of its past 10 games against Power Four opponents dating back to last season, and was behind at halftime in eight of those.
In a perfect world, Georgia asserts itself at home against Ole Miss, but its early-game struggles might just be another thing that’s indicative of the all-around balance in the SEC. And Saturday’s matchup might be one of the best on this year’s entire schedule.
Alabama tries to stay undefeated in the SEC
That season-opening loss to Florida State? It feels like ancient history. Alabama has won five straight games – all against teams that were undefeated coming in, including three in a row against ranked teams – and has reasserted itself as the favourite in the SEC approaching the midway point of the season.
On Saturday, the Crimson Tide hosts 13th-ranked Tennessee – a year-after-year tradition, the Third Saturday in October.
Alabama beat the Vols 15 straight times between 2007 and 2021, but have lost two of the last three – albeit, both times in Knoxville. A Tennessee win this weekend would be its first in Tuscaloosa in 22 years.
Ty Simpson has emerged as a possible first round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, and continued his ascent last week on the road against Missouri, passing for 200 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 win.
Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb have added a few interesting wrinkles to their offence over the past three games as well, creating touches for lumbering linemen Kadyn Proctor and Parker Brailsford – but second-year wide receiver Ryan Williams was notably absent last week, and held without a catch for the first time in his 17-game college career.
This weekend’s game pits the SEC’s best passing defence against its best air attack.
Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar leads the conference in passing yards (1,680 – two more than Simpson), but has thrown five interceptions over the past four games – a trend that could be a red flag after he threw an FBS-high 14 a year ago at Appalachian State. And in his two-plus years as a starting college quarterback, he’s never encountered a secondary quite like what he’ll face against Alabama.
Notre Dame could cement its playoff bid against USC
Five weeks ago, it was looking like a lost season for Notre Dame, which fell to Miami and Texas A&M in its first two games. Now, a playoff berth isn’t just feeling like a genuine possibility – it’s beginning to look like a probability.
Since starting 0-2, the Irish have rattled off four straight wins, scoring a combined 176 points behind redshirt freshman CJ Carr and a running back duo that’s reasserted itself as arguably the best in all of college football. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined to rush for 952 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, while averaging a shade under six yards per carry.
On Saturday, USC visits South Bend for what is likely Notre Dame’s only remaining challenge between now and December. The Trojans come in ranked 20th in the nation and fresh off a win over Michigan, and lost their only game of the season three weeks ago on a walk-off field goal in Illinois.
And if you like points, strap yourself in.
For all the scoring Marcus Freeman’s team has been doing, there have been concerns on the other side of the ball – particularly the 41 points and 488 yards allowed to the Aggies in Week 3 – and it’ll be put to the test against a USC offence that ranks second amongst all FBS teams in yards per game (552.3).
Jayden Maiava leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,852), and hasn’t suffered any slippage against ranked opponents, combining for 629 and four touchdowns against Illinois and Michigan.
This weekend’s game is also the latest installment in one of the sport’s great annual rivalries – albeit, one that’s been one-sided since 2017, with the Irish having won six of the past seven meetings.
