Falcons’ Playoff Scenarios: Can Atlanta Challenge the Buccaneers and Panthers in NFC South After Week 12 Win?
The Atlanta Falcons entered Week 12 on the ropes, after losing starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to a season-ending knee injury and losing five straight games. Heading into an NFC South tilt against the New Orleans Saints with a 3-7 record, Atlanta had little room for error. Raheem Morris’ squad rose to the occasion, winning 24-10 to improve to 4-7 on the year.
Still, at 3 games below .500, the Falcons have plenty of work to do if they even want to sniff the playoffs this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are ahead of them in the division, but Atlanta isn’t out of it yet.
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Can the Atlanta Falcons Still Make the Playoffs?
Every game the rest of the way feels like a must-win scenario for the Falcons. They entered the 2025-26 with high hopes, but they’ve failed to live up to expectations. Still, their backs were against the wall in Week 12, and they took care of business against a lowly but spirited Saints team.
With Penix gone for the season, Atlanta has turned back to veteran Kirk Cousins, who appeared to be on the outs heading into the year. Now, the team must rely on Cousins to help steer them back into playoff contention. Cousins threw for two touchdowns, while Bijan Robinson racked up 107 scrimmage yards.
It was a massive win for Atlanta, which was also playing without star wide receiver Drake London. Still, this team is facing an uphill battle to reach the postseason. That five-game losing streak, which included losses to San Francisco, Miami, New England, Indianapolis, and Carolina, could come back to bite them.
The Falcons are sitting in third place in the NFC South, behind the Buccaneers (6-4) and the Panthers (6-5). They played Tampa Bay close in Week 1, losing 23-20. However, Carolina swept the season series against Atlanta, including a 30-0 blowout in Week 3.
Atlanta’s final six-game stretch is a mixed bag. It includes three games against teams firmly in the playoff picture, including the Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. On the flip side, it features some winnable games against the Saints, New York Jets, and Arizona Cardinals.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, the Falcons’ chances to make the playoffs improved slightly with the win against the Saints. They now have a 1.8% chance to make the playoffs, and 1.1% chance to win the division.
However, it still seems like a long shot for the Falcons to reach the postseason, but you can never say never in this league. If Atlanta can get healthy and hot at the right time and pull off a few upsets, the team could find itself right back in the thick of things and sneak into the dance.
