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Sweden’s final bid to avoid World Cup elimination starts tonight: What are their chances

World Cup 2026 could miss two of the best strikers in the football clubs right now: Arsenal’s Viktor Gyokeres, recent Gerd Muller Trophy recipient as best striker last season, and Liverpool’s Alexander Isak, also two of the most expensive transfers last summer. With half of World Cup qualifying group stage underway, Sweden is at the bottom with only 1 point, earned from their 2-2 draw against Slovenia in September.

Sweden then lost 2-0 to Kosovo, and last Friday, another 2-0 loss to Switzerland, currently group B leader. That defeat left Sweden hanging on a tightrope if they want to qualify for next summer’s World Cup: they have almost no chances of being group leaders (Switzerland would need to loss all three upcoming matches), so now the fight will be against Kosovo and Slovenia for the second place on the group, which grants them access to the European play-offs.

Group B

  1. Switzerland: 9 points
  2. Kosovo: 4 points
  3. Slovenia: 2 points
  4. Sweden: 1 point

What needs to happen for Sweden to qualify for World Cup

Sweden’s fate is not in their hands, but if they win all their upcoming matches that would have good chances of reaching that second spot in the group. It all comes down to tonight’s match, though: they need to beat Kosovo to still have some chance to secure a second place spot. They play at home, on Monday, October 13 at 20:45 CET, but only one month ago, Kosovo beat them 2-0, despite their rank differences (Sweden is 32 in FIFA ranking, Kosovo is 91).

A victory by Switzerland against Slovenia would also help to leave them behind, as the chances of the Swiss losing all three remaining matches are very low.

In the case Sweden beats Kosovo tonight, they would tie at 4 points. But if Slovenia beats Switzerland tonight, things would much more complicated. The good news is that Sweden plays at home their final match of the group stage, against Slovenia on November 14, but they need to expect that Kosovo would stumble at least once…

However, even if they finish third or fourth, they have a lifeline: qualification for play-offs through the spots reserved to the best Nations League group winners that didn’t qualify through the top 2 places in group stage. Seeing how Norway, England, France, Spain, Portugal, and the Czech Republic are sure or unlikely to finish third of fourth, those spots could be taken by Sweden, Germany, Wales, and Romania.

Thomas Persson / Shutterstock

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