With their 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, the Detroit Lions gave their playoff hopes a boost while delivering a crushing blow to the Cowboys.
Both teams entered Week 14 just outside of the playoff picture, knowing they could ill-afford another loss — especially against a fellow wild-card contender.
Here’s a deeper look at how The Athletic’s NFL playoff simulator views the Lions, the Cowboys and the NFC playoff picture in light of Thursday night’s result.
Lions’ chances soar
Before Thursday’s game, the simulator had Detroit’s chances at making the playoffs at 30 percent. A loss would’ve dropped those odds to just 12 percent. Instead, the Lions improved to 8-5 and their postseason chances are now at about 45 percent.
The Lions still need help, as they sit at No. 8 in the NFC standings — one back of the final wild-card spot occupied by the San Francisco 49ers (9-4), who have a bye this week.
Although the win moves the Lions one game back of the 49ers in the win-loss column, they will likely need to have a better record than the 49ers to overtake them in the standings. The two teams don’t have a head-to-head matchup in the regular season, so in the case of identical records, the next tiebreaker of conference record would apply.
The 49ers have an 8-2 record in the conference while the Lions are 5-4. San Francisco plays against NFC opponents in just two of its last four games, against the Seattle Seahawks and the Chicago Bears, with both games at home. Detroit has three NFC games remaining, against the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings and Bears, all on the road. Should they end up with the same conference record, the next tiebreaker is record in common games.
The Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) and Seahawks (9-3) are the two wild-card teams currently ahead of the 49ers in the wild-card race.
Detroit’s only realistic chance at the postseason is through a wild-card berth. The Lions had a 5 percent chance at topping the Bears or Packers for the NFC North crown coming into Thursday night, and the win improved them only to 8 percent. The Lions lost both of their games to the Packers. They beat the Bears once and play them again in the regular-season finale.
Cowboys’ chances take a significant hit
The simulator had Dallas’ chances at making the playoffs at 23 percent before Thursday night. With the loss, the Cowboys’ playoff chances dipped to about 9 percent and their chances of winning the NFC East fell to 4 percent.
At this point, the Philadelphia Eagles have the division all but wrapped up with 96 percent odds. That’s despite two straight losses to fall to 8-4 and Thursday’s news that star defensive tackle Jalen Carter is being shelved with a shoulder injury. The Eagles have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the league. They play the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, and then face the Washington Commanders twice, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Buffalo Bills.
So, for the Cowboys, any slim hopes are likely as part of the wild-card conversation. The Cowboys won’t likely have to consider any tiebreaker scenarios because of their early-season tie against the Packers, unless, of course, they are tied with the Packers. But Thursday’s loss has the Cowboys three back of the 49ers in the win column and in 10th place in the NFC.
While Dallas is mathematically alive, even if the Cowboys ran the table, their odds would only be 41 percent to make the playoffs and 17 percent to win the division. They will need significant help. The Cowboys have home games against the Chargers and Vikings, and road games against the Commanders and the New York Giants.
Rest of the conference
Although Thursday night’s game was between the two teams on the edge of the NFC playoff picture, it didn’t have a significant impact on teams throughout the conference. The Eagles’ postseason chances went up by 2 percent and their chances to win the division went from 90 percent to 96 percent.
The Bears’ playoff chances and division chances each went down 2 percent with the Lions’ win, to 75 and 34 percent, respectively.
