The bye week is a time for self-reflection, and the Los Angeles Chargers had plenty of reflecting to do after a blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.
The Chargers are a flawed team. That fact was made abundantly evident in Jacksonville. Some of the flaws have been out of their control, such as losing starting tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to season-ending injuries. Some of the flaws, however, have been within their control. Those can be traced back to roster decisions, player performance and coaching.
Despite the flaws, the Chargers are in position for a playoff run. They are 7-4 and entered Week 12 as the sixth seed in the AFC. To get to the postseason, the Chargers must emerge from this bye with a clear idea of the team’s weaknesses and a clear vision of how to fix them.
“In every phase, there’s no player coming out of this game that is going to feel good about the game they played, or a coach,” Jim Harbaugh said last week. “We were out-strategized. I don’t feel good about it. Now, we look at the issue, and we go about fixing it.”
Harbaugh spent the week identifying problems and formulating solutions. We did the same. The Chargers have played 11 games, which is a big sample by NFL standards. The statistics paint a picture of these 2025 Chargers — what they do well, and what they do not do well.
This is your bye week scouting report, a deep dive into the current DNA of the Chargers and the necessary improvements they must make over the final six games of the regular season.
All statistics courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise noted.
Offense
Through Week 11, the Chargers offense ranked 21st in expected points added per play and 10th in success rate. The discrepancy between EPA per play and success rate is rooted in two primary issues. One, the Chargers have committed far too many turnovers. Two, the Chargers are not an explosive offense.
The Chargers have turned it over 12 times on offense this season, including nine interceptions from quarterback Justin Herbert. There is some flukiness in Herbert’s interception total. Four of his interceptions have been on batted balls at the line of scrimmage. One was the result of his intended receiver falling over. But Herbert has not been as sharp in his decision-making this season. He had three interceptions in 17 games last regular season. Herbert has been putting the ball in harm’s way more often. This regression can at least partly be attributed to the Chargers’ poor pass protection. Through 11 weeks, they ranked 29th in pressure rate allowed.
The result is a massive shift in the Chargers’ turnover margin. They have turned the ball over 13 times, including one special teams turnover. They have forced 12 turnovers, including a special teams turnover. That is a -1 differential.
The Chargers are on pace to force 19 turnovers this season. They forced 21 last season. The difference has been in giveaways. The Chargers had nine turnovers in 17 games last season. Their turnover margin last season was +12.
Last season, the Chargers produced +62.66 expected points on turnovers. In other words, they added about nine touchdowns’ worth of value when factoring in takeaways and giveaways. This season, the Chargers have produced -22.44 expected points on turnovers. So they have given up about three touchdowns in value when factoring in takeaways and giveaways.
That is a 12-touchdown swing in value. Herbert is 31st among qualified quarterbacks in EPA lost on turnovers.
Down to down, the Chargers offense has not been a disaster, as evidenced by the top-10 ranking in success rate. However, the turnovers have affected their value output. And they have not been able to offset that with the holy grail of offensive football, the explosive play. The Chargers are 22nd in explosive play rate. We are defining an explosive play as any completion of more than 15 yards and any rush of more than 11 yards. The Chargers are 27th in explosive pass rate. They are 25th in explosive rush rate on designed rushing calls. Herbert has nine explosive scrambles this season, which was the second-most through Week 11. That has been a saving grace in their explosive rate.
The Chargers struggle to protect, and that has affected their ability to push the ball downfield. They lost rookie running back Omarion Hampton after Week 5 to an ankle injury, and that has affected their big-play capabilities in the ground game. The Chargers have only eight explosive designed rushes since Hampton went on injured reserve.
The best part of this Chargers offense is the performance on third down. Through 11 weeks, the Chargers ranked second in third-down conversion rate at 45.8 percent and led the NFL in rushing success rate on third down, converting over 75 percent of their third-and-short rushing attempts.
The Chargers have also been elite at converting on third-and-mediums, with 4 to 6 yards to gain. They’ve converted 53.8 percent of those downs, tied for the third-highest rate in the league. Even with poor pass protection, Herbert has been able to lean into quick game concepts in these scenarios, taking advantage of his improved receiving group. Of the 21 conversions for the Chargers in third-and-medium, 11 have come on completions to receiver Keenan Allen.
The Chargers have been good situationally on third down. They have not been as good situationally in the red zone, where they rank 26th in touchdown conversion rate. This ranking is skewed by failures in the first five weeks of the season related to pass protection, penalties and play calling. The Chargers have been closer to league average in the red zone since Week 6.
The big issue the Chargers must address is the pass protection. Herbert has been pressured on 182 dropbacks this season. Through 11 weeks, no quarterback had been pressured on more than 157 dropbacks. The Chargers miss Slater and Alt. And there is no foolproof fix on the roster. They traded for Trevor Penning, who struggled in pass protection in his first start for the Chargers against the Jaguars.
The first possible fix: starting Jamaree Salyer at left tackle. Salyer has played the most consistent football of his career at left tackle. The Chargers will lose some athleticism in the run game. But they have to find a player who can hold up more often in pass protection. Salyer is their best option in that regard.
The second possible fix: lean into heavier personnel. In particular, use more tight ends in the formation.
Through 11 weeks, the Chargers led the league in offensive success rate when using multiple tight ends, at 50.3 percent. However, they only used these packages on 19 percent of offensive plays, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. When the Chargers used multiple tight ends, they allowed pressure on 32.2 percent of dropbacks, which ranked 13th through 11 weeks. When they have been in 11 personnel — three receivers, one tight end — that pressure rate jumps to 42.7 percent.
Protect the ball better. Lean into heavier personnel. Start Salyer at left tackle. Get some juice back in the running game with the return of Hampton, who has a chance to practice this week ahead of a home matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Defense
With the state of the Chargers’ offensive line, the defense is going to have to carry the team through this final stretch. It appeared as though coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit was turning into that type of unit from Weeks 8 to 10, but the loss to the Jaguars was a giant leap backward.
The Chargers are still a top-10 defense by EPA per play and success rate. But they have one glaring weakness: the run defense.
The Chargers are 23rd in defensive EPA per rush and 27th in defensive rushing success rate. The Jaguars overwhelmed the Chargers’ front with physicality. This is the most inconsistent aspect of Minter’s unit and the problem that must be fixed over the final six weeks.
The primary issue is how the Chargers are defending the run when they have fewer resources allocated to the line of scrimmage. Minter likes to live in two-high-safety shells. He likes to live in sub-packages with defensive backs on the field in place of interior defensive linemen and inside linebackers. That often means fewer players in the box. Opposing offenses have been consistently moving the ball against the Chargers in these looks, and this is the most pressing difference between the 2024 defense and the 2025 defense.
The Chargers aren’t doing a good enough job of stopping the run. (Rich Storry / Getty Images)
When the Chargers have been in nickel packages this season, meaning five defensive backs, they rank 26th in defensive EPA per rush. Last season, the Chargers ranked first in defensive EPA per rush when in nickel.
When the Chargers have aligned six or fewer defenders in the box this season, they rank 23rd in defensive EPA per rush. Last season, the Chargers ranked third.
The Chargers have played 58.3 percent of their defensive snaps with six or fewer defenders in the box this season, the second-highest rate in the league through 11 weeks. This is the structure of the defensive system. But the Chargers cannot continue to play this way. They do not have the interior defenders to stop the run in light boxes. They let Poona Ford walk in free agency, and they are paying the price for it.
When the Chargers have been in their base defense this year — four defensive backs and three interior defensive linemen — they rank fifth in defensive EPA per rush. However, they have only played their base package on 20.7 percent of snaps. The Chargers have to allocate more resources to the line of scrimmage to stop the bleeding in run defense. Otherwise, teams are going to follow the Jaguars’ lead and run the ball down the Chargers’ throats. The most effective part of Minter’s scheme is his coverage disguises on the back end. Opposing offenses do not even have to tempt those coverages if they can just run the ball at will.
Heavier boxes. More resources to the line of scrimmage. Fix the run defense, fix the defense overall.
Special teams
The Chargers’ special teams have taken a step back this season. They ranked 14th in special teams EPA in 2024. This season, they ranked 23rd through 11 weeks. They produced positive EPA on special teams last season. This season, they have produced a negative EPA.
The primary fall-off has happened in the return game. The coverage units have been uneven at times, but they are on pace to finish with a similar total EPA for this season as compared to last season.
The punt return and kickoff return units, meanwhile, have cratered.
Returner Derius Davis missed three games earlier this season, and he has not looked like himself since returning from the knee injury in Week 7. The Chargers ranked 30th in total return EPA through 11 weeks. They are one of four teams in the league with fewer than 10 expected points produced on returns. The Chargers have produced 8.33 EPA on returns. The San Francisco 49ers led the league in return EPA at over 43 through 11 weeks.
The return game must improve. Davis has to rediscover his form, and perhaps the week off will aid his health. The blocking in front of him has not been great. Tight end Tyler Conklin, in particular, has struggled on kickoff blocking. The Chargers are giving away too much value with the poor punt and kickoff returns.
