Is it Déjà vu in the City of Brotherly Love?
Four years ago, with questions swirling around a listless and lifeless club, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski pulled the plug, firing then-manager Joe Girardi after a 22–29 start. The Phillies proceeded to play a freer brand of baseball and won eight of their first nine games under interim manager Rob Thomson to launch a 14–2 stretch, then rode the momentum all the way to the World Series.
Four years later, the Phillies, a $281 million giant sleepwalking through the first month-and-a-half of the season, didn’t wait until June to make a change this time, firing Thomson on April 28 after a disastrous 9–19 beginning. The Phillies proceeded to win eight of their first nine games under interim manager Don Mattingly amid a 15-4 stretch, and have yet to lose a series under the watchful eye of Donnie Baseball.
The recent hot stretch was capped off by a Rivalry Weekend sweep of the upstart Pirates in the battle for Pennsylvania, otherwise known as the Wawa vs. Sheetz turf war, in which Philadelphia’s lineup chased Pirates ace Paul Skenes—who had allowed only four hits in his last two starts—from Sunday’s game after just five innings pitched. The Phillies are north of .500 for the first time since April 7.
“We feel good,” Phillies shortstop Trea Turner said after the 6-0 win. “This is what we’re capable of; we obviously didn’t want to start the way we did, but we feel good, we feel like we’re playing good baseball.”
Indeed. Philadelphia owns the best record in the sport since they dismissed one of the club’s most successful and beloved managers in Thomson. Just how the heck have they done it?
How Phillies have turned things around
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have done Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber things
Kyle Schwarber leads MLB with 20 home runs. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Up until Thomson’s dismissal, various faces of the Phillies’ lineup could have appeared on milk cartons around Philadelphia, as there were multiple missing person cases among a batting order of underachievers.
The Phillies had scored the third-fewest runs and posted an 85 wRC+, prompting boos at Citizens Bank Park.
Thanks to their superstars’ rising tide that has lifted the collective boat, that has changed. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have been on absolute heaters.
Since April 28, Harper has posted a 190 wRC+, a higher walk rate than strikeout rate and has belted five home runs. By any measure, he’s been hotter than the surface of the sun. Take that, Dave Dombrowski!
Somehow, he’s been outdone by his own teammate. Schwarber owns the highest wRC+ in all of baseball during that same span (227), and has gone on a home run binge that amazingly has preceded Wawa’s Hoagiefest. Schwarber traditionally has tended to heat up along with the weather, and that has been the case once again this year, as he’s swatted 11 long balls since April 28, including nine in his last 10 games.
It’s been more than just those two, though. Alec Bohm has begun to resemble the All-Star hitter he was two seasons ago. Brandon Marsh and rookie Justin Crawford are swinging hot bats. Collectively, the team is producing better with runners in scoring position than they were a month ago.
Sure, there are still underperformers—Bryson Stott and Trea Turner, we’re looking at you. But the combined efforts of Schwarber, Harper and company have resulted in this lineup scoring the third-most runs while posting a 108 wRC+ since April 28.
Were guys squeezing the bat too hard and now aren’t? Did they feel responsible for Thomson’s firing and it lit a fire under them? It’s hard to say, but the lineup’s production has been night and day under Mattingly.
A three-headed monster in the starting rotation
Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since returning from injury. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Arguably no starting pitching staff was worse than the Phillies’ in the first month-and-a-half. Few starting pitching staffs have been better than the Phillies’ as of late. Many expected a healthy Zack Wheeler, who on April 25 returned to the mound for the first time since last August after a long hiatus due to venous thoracic outlet syndrome, would help fix what ailed Philadelphia’s starters.
And unsurprisingly, it has definitely helped to have a Cy Young-caliber starter taking the ball every fifth day. Wheeler has been excellent in five starts, permitting just seven earned runs while posting a 24:4 strikeout to walk ratio and 1.99 ERA in 38 ⅔ innings.
But it hasn’t just been Wheeler.
Christopher Sanchez, who last year finished second in the National League Cy Young vote, has been even better than Wheeler. The lanky lefty owns a minuscule 0.59 ERA over his last four starts, a remarkable run that has lowered his season ERA to 1.82.
Fellow southpaw Jesus Luzardo, despite an inexplicable blow-up start vs. the Rockies on May 8, owns the ninth-largest differences between his strikeout and walk rates among qualified starters since April 28, and a 2.82 ERA during that span.
There are certainly question marks surrounding the rest of the rotation, particularly with veteran Aaron Nola and former top prospect Andrew Painter.
And yet, the Phillies’ rotation has rolled right along, thanks to its two aces and rock-solid No. 3 starter.
A lights-out bullpen with a little bit of everything
Chase Shugart has been one of the best strike-throwing relievers in baseball. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
All of a sudden, the Phillies’ bullpen is starting to come together—and they have a little bit of everything. There’s gas—this is one of the hardest throwing bullpens in the majors and employs the likes of Jhoan Duran, José Alvarado, Brad Keller, Orion Kerkering and the injured Zach Pop, each of whom rank in the 77th percentile or better in fastball velocity.
There’s swing-and-miss—the above trio all boast strikeout rates of 28% or better. There’s strike-throwing—Chase Shugart and Tim Mayza rank among the top 25 relievers in called-strike percentage.
There’s a ground ball specialist—Mayza owns the 16th-highest groundball rate in the big leagues. And there’s a master of weak contact—Kerkering has yielded the lowest average exit velocity among qualified relievers.
There’s a lot to like about Philadelphia’s ‘pen right now, which is also getting healthier. Duran returned from a strained left oblique on May 5 and Pop on Saturday began a rehab assignment.
Put it all together and the Phillies look like a completely different club than the one that slumped through March and much of April.
However, the good people of Philadelphia have seen this movie before. The question is, is this an Oscar-worthy flick or a bad remake?
The real test looms for the Phillies
Before I say what I’m about to say, just know that I’m not here to burst your bubble, Phillies fans. Feel free to party like it’s 2022 and don’t mind me.
That said, it’s difficult to ignore that Philadelphia has benefited from playing some less-than-stellar competition during its recent 14-4 stretch. Philadelphia won series against the Giants, Marlins, A’s, Rockies, Red Sox and Pirates.
The collective winning percentage of those teams this season? .446
Not exactly a murderer’s row. But taking a gander at Philadelphia’s upcoming schedule would prompt even the most optimistic Phillies fan to brace themselves.
Over the next seven series—essentially the next month of Phillies baseball—the Fightin’s will play just one opponent below .500. The likes of the Guardians, Padres and Dodgers loom.
The collective winning percentage of each of these opponents? .556.
While one could easily brush aside the upcoming schedule as an outlier of particularly difficult matchups, it’s not the only tough stretch in what amounts to the 11th-hardest schedule in MLB.
How about a July 20-26 stretch against the back-to-back defending champion Dodgers and the Yankees? Or seven games in 10 days against the NL East-leading Braves in September?
The Phillies have been the best team in baseball since Mattingly assumed the top stoop of the dugout. The Phillies are still minus-17 in run differential after all that winning. The question is, are the Phillies for real?
We’re about to find out.
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