284 NFL regular season and playoff games in the books.
Yet somehow, it still feels like the best is yet to come with the potential for fireworks in Super Bowl 60.
Perhaps it’s just the hardcore football fan in me.
Prior to the start of the NFL playoffs, I was challenged.
The NFL postseason features the sharpest lines in sports.
There’s no way a nobody like me would beat the books.
Then something strange happened.
Three straight winning weeks with my FanDuel Best Bets for TSN.ca in the Wild Card Round, Divisional Round, and on Championship Sunday.
Now we’ve reached the final stop on an electric ride.
Transparently, I felt like my postseason mission was accomplished by the time the final seconds ticked down on Championship Sunday.
We had already banked a playoff profit.
I had no intention of making more than a handful of FanDuel Best Bet recommendations for Super Bowl 60.
Then, FanDuel hit us with 500+ props for the big game.
The Super Bowl is truly a spectacle unlike any other, and it didn’t take me long to get to work with a handful of early plays that I loved in my Morning Coffee column.
With 14 days between Championship Sunday and Super Bowl 60, I’m sure a couple of you missed a play or two along the way.
Unfortunately, some of my favourite early numbers have already moved substantially since they opened.
Morning Coffee is never a bad idea.
Then again, there are still a handful of numbers available that you might want to consider for your Super Bowl 60 bet card at FanDuel after the Flip of Destiny is done.
While the majority of TSN voters are on tails, the FanDuel traders told us this morning that 55 per cent of their bets are on heads for the Super Bowl coin toss.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks remain a popular bet.
However, some money has come in on the New England Patriots to cover the spread in recent days.
Per the FanDuel traders, nearly 67 per cent of the bets and stakes are on Seattle to cover the spread.
That’s down from upwards of 70 per cent last week.
In case you missed it, I’m in the minority as somebody who made Patriots +4.5 a FanDuel Best Bet.
At this point, you’ve seen countless stats and trends pointing in every direction for Super Bowl 60.
I’m here to offer some additional perspective.
The Super Bowl underdogs have gone 3-0 straight up over the previous three years.
The underdog has also covered the spread in five straight Super Bowls.
Since 2007, there have been seven Super Bowls where the spread is larger than a field goal.
In those seven Super Bowls, favourites of more than a field goal have gone a combined 2-5 straight up and 0-7 against the spread.
Yes, Super Bowl underdogs of four or more points are a combined 7-0 ATS dating back to 2007, when the New York Giants beat the Patriots outright as a 12.5-point underdog.
More importantly, much of what I’ve heard leading up to Super Bowl 60 is based on a small sample size of team stats that don’t tell the full story.
For example, we’ve acknowledged that New England has had the easier overall schedule of these two teams.
However, it’s a leap to argue that Seattle will win this contest by at least five points because of it.
After all, you could always bet Seahawks -5.5, -6.5, -7.5, or -10.5 at a much better price if you think the NFC champion will win in a blowout.
We should at least mention the Seahawks haven’t played an elite defence since Week 6.
Or that in that span, their two wins over the Los Angeles Rams were their only two wins over an opponent that was a top 10 choice to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs.
Yes, since Week 7, Seattle has faced one team that ranked among the top 10 choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel at the start of the playoffs.
The Patriots have faced four different top 10 choices in that same span.
Meanwhile, the Rams defence is the toughest unit the Seahawks have faced since Week 7, but they struggled mightily throughout the second half of the season.
On the flip side, New England has faced three of the top 10 scoring defences on the road to the Super Bowl, including arguably the NFL’s best defence in Houston.
The Seahawks could blow out the Patriots tonight.
It won’t be because New England had an easy schedule.
The single-most important matchup features the Patriots’ interior defensive line against Seattle’s offensive line.
The Seahawks offence has had success this season based on their ability to run the football and hit big plays off play-action.
On the flip side, New England’s run defence has been elite this postseason, and their ability to get pressure on the interior could disrupt the timing of Seattle’s offence.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks offence was one of the league’s worst on third down, while the Patriots defence was one of the league’s best.
Milton Williams might be the most underrated player in Super Bowl 60.
His presence makes Christian Barmore that much more dangerous as the bash brothers in the middle of the Patriots’ defensive line.
The Seahawks struggled mightily with pressure up the middle, but didn’t face it as often in the second half.
Seattle’s ability to counter that interior pressure will be the key to how this game plays out.
So, how will Sam Darnold perform with pressure in his face?
What can we expect from Drake Maye against another elite defence?
As I wrote about in Friday’s Morning Coffee column, I’m comfortable with Patriots +4.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.
However, we could see this line climb to +5 by game time.
We likely won’t see that number fall any lower, so there’s no reason to rush playing New England if you want to wait until closer game time.
Here are my recommended player props for Super Bowl 60:
Domenic Padula’s Super Bowl 60 Player Prop Card
Rhamondre Stevenson over 20.5 receiving
Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions
TreVeyon Henderson over 1.5 receiving
TreVeyon Henderson 1+ reception
TreVeyon Henderson over 16.5 rushing
Drake Maye over 33.5 rushing
Kenneth Walker III over 20.5 receiving
Kenneth Walker III over 2.5 receptions
George Holani over 7.5 receiving
Stefon Diggs over 4.5 receptions +102
Stefon Diggs Fastest Ball Carrier Speed Under 18.5 Miles Per Hour -160
