The Toronto Blue Jays gave $210 million to free agent pitcher Dylan Cease, a guy with a 4.18 ERA the past three seasons, worse than mid-rotation starters such as Bailey Ober, Jameson Taillon and Dean Kremer. Hold on. Once you get over the sticker price, you realize it’s a smart deal. Why?
1. It’s not really $210 million. With deferrals, it’s more like $182 million over seven years ($26 million per year), which puts him in line with one of his best comps, Carlos Rodón of the Yankees ($27 million per year), another high upside “stuff” guy plagued at times by inconsistency and a high walk rate.
2. He’s durable. Cease has made 32 or 33 starts five years running.
3. The Blue Jays made it known they are serious about consolidating the momentum they built on their World Series run and are not done yet, needing a bullpen arm and a bat.
4. Toronto could use more swing-and-miss in the rotation (16th in K rate last season). With Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer coming off the books and with a full season of Trey Yesavage and Cease, now they’ve got it.
5. Cease is a big-time swing-and-miss pitcher (95th percentile in whiff rate) who throws 97 mph and spins the ball more than any starter in MLB (53%). When teams look to make investments in free agent pitchers, ERA hardly matters. What matters are a) do you miss bats? and b) do your mechanics and injury history mitigate risk? Cease checks those boxes.
6. Cease is one adjustment away from getting closer to the ceiling he hasn’t hit yet. That’s where Toronto pitching coach Pete Walker comes in.
Cease has a great arm, but he needs to adopt the Tampa Bay approach: start every hitter with the catcher in the middle of the plate and pound the zone. It’s The 94% Solution: if you throw a first pitch in the strike zone, the outcome is positive 94% of the time (called strike, foul, out). Then you expand out.
Last season Cease led the league in strikeout rate and yet posted a 4.55 ERA. How in the world is that possible? It was the second-worst ERA by any qualified pitcher with 11.5 strikeouts per nine—and the worst ever in that group by a league leader:
Highest ERA with 11.5 K/9 (Qualified)
Year
K/9
ERA
1. Matthew Boyd
2019
11.6
4.56
2. Dylan Cease
2025
11.5 (led league)
4.55
3. Robbie Ray
2019
12.1
4.34
4. Yu Darvish
2019
11.5
3.98
5. Dylan Cease
2021
12.3 (led league
3.91
Why isn’t Cease better? Why don’t his results match his stuff? Don’t tell me about “luck.” He gets hurt by falling behind:
Highest OPS Allowed with 0 Strikes, MLB 2025 (Min. 20 GS)
Player
OPS
1. Bailey Ober (Twins)
1.243
2. JP Sears (Padres)
1.239
3. Dylan Cease (Padres)
1.238
Cease does not attack the strike zone enough. By throwing too many breaking pitches, Cease is below average at the fundamentals of pitching: a) throwing first-pitch strikes, b) filling the zone and c) living on the edge of the strike zone:
2025 Percentages
Cease
MLB Average
Spin Percentage
52.6%
31.0%
1st Pitch Strikes
60.0%
61.8%
In Zone
46.5%
48.9%
Edge
42.2%
42.7%
Walker and the Jays must focus Cease on pounding the zone early and then working outwar—and it should involve more fastballs. That kind of transition can be done. We’ve seen it before.
Remember the guy with the highest ERA with a K rate of at least 11.5? That’s Matthew Boyd, and he is the best comp to fix Cease so that his ERA gets closer to the quality of his stuff. Boyd adjusted by pounding the zone, throwing more fastballs and becoming a better pitcher, not just a strikeout rate guy.
Matthew Boyd Progression
Year
Breaking %
In Zone %
ERA
2019
39.9%
50.0%
4.56
2025
26.2%
54.5%
3.21
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