United States President Donald Trump says he has decided to pause an attack on Iran at the behest of Gulf leaders after Tehran sent a new peace proposal to Washington through Pakistan.
On Monday, Trump said there is now a “very good chance” the US could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
An initial, temporary ceasefire commenced on April 8, six weeks into the war. Since then, armed hostilities have largely subsided, but a durable peace agreement remains elusive, with both the US and Iran dissatisfied with each other’s proposed terms.
Saudi Arabia said on Monday it had intercepted three drones, a day after a drone attack hit the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in the United Arab Emirates. This has raised more concerns about the potential for renewed military escalation in the Gulf as peace negotiations drag on.
What has Trump said about a new attack on Iran?
Following the reported drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Later on Monday, in another post, he said he had been asked by the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hold off on a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday since “serious negotiations are now taking place”.
Trump added that he had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and the US military not to carry out the scheduled attack. However, he said, he “further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”.
What do we know about the latest peace plan from Iran?
Iran has submitted a revised 14-point peace plan to end the war, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday.
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a news briefing on Monday that Tehran’s response to the previous US proposal had been “conveyed to the American side through mediator Pakistan”, according to Tasnim.
Washington and Tehran have exchanged multiple proposals in recent weeks amid a ceasefire that has mostly halted six weeks of fighting. However, the initial direct talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad in April stalled, and Trump said last week the ceasefire is “on life support”.
While the specific proposals in the latest plan from Iran have not been made public, Baghaei said the demands include the release of its assets frozen abroad and the lifting of sanctions.
“The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.
Iran has also previously demanded compensation for damage inflicted by US-Israeli attacks, an end to the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue daily attacks and have mounted a ground invasion in the south of the country.
Washington has urged Tehran to dismantle its nuclear programme and lift a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the war, carried one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply.
“There is a degree of optimism on both sides, given the movement that was achieved yesterday. But there is no final deal yet, and as a result, things can still break down,” Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute, told Al Jazeera.
What are the main sticking points between Iran and the US?
A major point of contention is Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. During negotiations, Washington has urged Tehran to give away its enriched uranium, a demand Tehran has resisted.
Iran is believed to have about 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent. A 90 percent threshold of enriched uranium is needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran has never officially declared an intention to build nuclear weapons. The US wants this stock to be handed over to it, but Iran is reportedly willing to consider handing it only to a third party – if at all.
Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers from BRICS nations in New Delhi last week that Iran and the US have reached a “deadlock” on the question of Iran’s “enriched material”.
As a result, he said, the topic is being “postponed” until later stages in the talks. “For the time being, it is not under discussion, it’s not under negotiation, but we will come to that subject in later stages.”
Araghchi confirmed he had spoken to Russian officials about an offer from Moscow to store Iran’s enriched uranium. He said Iran may consider Russia’s proposal at an “appropriate time” and that he appreciates Moscow’s efforts.
“When we come to that stage, obviously, we will have more consultations with Russia and see if the Russian offer can help or not,” he said.
Washington and Tehran are also arguing about whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium at all. Under the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed with several countries in 2015, Iran was able to continue enriching to 3.87 percent – enough for the development of a nuclear power programme. Trump withdrew the US from that agreement in 2018, despite consistent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran had stuck to its terms. Now, the US wants a moratorium on all uranium enrichment for up to 20 years, it says.
“There is room for compromise on many of the issues, including enrichment and the stockpile. The question is if there is political will for a compromise and confidence that the two sides can sell the compromise at home,” Parsi said.
Another sticking point between the two countries is the Strait of Hormuz.
Since early March, Iran has restricted shipping through the strait, a narrow waterway linking oil producers in the Gulf to the open ocean and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped during peacetime. Iran has allowed passage of vessels from select countries, but they are required to negotiate transit with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
In its previous proposals to end the war, Iran has mentioned charging fees or tolls for vessels seeking to pass through the strait. Washington has repeatedly rejected the prospect. In April, the US announced a naval blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, further adding to the disruption of global oil and gas supplies.
“Since the ceasefire came into effect, both Washington and Tehran appear to be operating under the illusion that time is on their side,” Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
“Each seems to believe that the blockade and counter-blockade in the Strait of Hormuz impose greater costs on the other, while offering a breathing space to regroup for a possible resumption of hostilities.”
Iran’s state media, citing the Foreign Ministry, reported that technical teams from Iran and Oman met in Muscat to negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.
A third likely major point of friction – although one which may also be kicked into later discussions – is Iran’s support for a network of “proxy” armed groups around the Middle East which it calls its “axis of resistance”. These include the Houthis in Yemen, who have also caused disruption by launching attacks on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea in the past, Hezbollah in Lebanon and multiple groups based in Iraq and Syria.
“For Iran, the economic damage is real and cumulative, deepening the strain on an already battered economy, but not yet to the point of compelling Tehran to accept terms it views as tantamount to capitulation,” Vaez said.
“For the US, the belief that it retains room to escalate militarily, tighten sanctions, and intensify naval pressure has reduced the incentive to accommodate Iranian proposals on both the sequencing and substance of a potential agreement.”
