Danny Howard
• Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 16, 2026 , 07:24 PM ET
• 4 min read
Mike Perry keeps this fight standing and beats Nate Diaz by decision.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Nate Diaz and Mike Perry face off in a welterweight bout tonight.
Nate Diaz and Mike Perry return to the octagon in one of our featured undercard attractions of tonight’s inaugural MVP MMA event.
My Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry predictions expect the younger Perry to use his refined striking to notch the biggest win of his MMA career, set to be streamed on Netflix.
Let’s dive into the latest Netflix MVP MMA odds plus my free betting picks for Saturday, May 16.
Diaz vs Perry fight prediction: Perry moneyline (-190)
Diaz vs Perry
May 16 • MVP MMA
Fight Prediction
Perry moneyline (-190)
Bet now at
In their MMA primes, Nate Diaz would have been favored as the more complete fighter, but the intangibles in this matchup heavily favor Mike Perry.
Perry reinvented himself through bare-knuckle boxing, becoming a BKFC champion while staying consistently active and sharpening his pressure-heavy striking style.
Diaz, meanwhile, is now 41 years old and has mostly remained active through novelty boxing appearances since leaving the UFC in 2022.
At this stage, it’s difficult to trust his pace and durability over a full fight against a fresher, more active opponent.
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Diaz vs Perry best bet: Perry by decision (+190)
Diaz vs Perry
May 16 • MVP MMA
Best bet
Perry by decision (+190)
Bet now at
The toughness and durability Diaz is known for isn’t something he can fall back on this late in his career against a sharper, mobile striker.
Perry’s pressure and speed will quickly make their mark on the plodding Diaz, who will be marked up in short order. Ironically, Diaz’s best chance to win is if Perry treats this as an MMA fight and tries to shoot for takedowns, which won’t be necessary.
COVERS INTEL: Perry’s last UFC appearance was a lopsided decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez in 2021. Diaz last fought in the UFC at UFC 279, defeating Tony Ferguson in 2022.
Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry odds
Method of Victory
Diaz
Perry
To win outright
+150
-200
To win by KO/TKO
+1100
+195
To win by decision
OTB
OTB
To win by submission
+425
+2700
Total rounds
Over 4.5
-115
Under 4.5
-105
Odds as of 5-16.
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Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry tale of the tape
Diaz
Perry
41
Age
34
6-foot-0
Height
5-foot-10
Welterweight
Weight Class
Welterweight
76 inches
Reach
71 inches
21-13
Record
14-8
5
Wins by KO
11
12
Wins by submission
0
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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After a decade of covering all things boxing, from recapping the sport’s biggest fights to sharing behind-the-scenes details of the sweet science, Danny found himself immersed in sports betting, focusing on the sports he knows best. As a boxing and MMA contributor with seasoned experience from growing up around each sport, he can uncover the nuances and intangibles that can make the difference between victory and defeat.
Danny’s work has been mentioned on ESPN and USA Today, and he was a featured guest on The Esportz Network podcast, where he shared his combat sports insights. He is also a published author, with his novel And Stay Down! Boxing’s Worst Comebacks available on Amazon.
Danny is always on the lookout for the best odds and props when it comes to fight night, with Draft Kings and BetMGM being his go-to sites. Danny’s approach to finding value in the theater of the unexpected hinges on the fighters’ recent form, especially when considering props.
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