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Detroit Lions have exceeded expectations, so here’s a new prediction for the second half

Detroit Lions DT Alim McNeill on his role upon returning from injury

Detroit Lions DT Alim McNeill said he’s just focused on his own job after the Lions’ win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday, Oct. 20, 2025.

  • The Detroit Lions have exceeded expectations with a 5-2 record heading into their bye week.
  • The team is expected to get healthier, with several key defensive players slated to return soon.
  • While the NFC is considered wide open, potential future injuries to key offensive players remain a concern.

As the Detroit Lions prepare to come off their bye, it’s a great time to size them up and try to figure out what their potential is for the rest of the regular season, and possibly beyond.

So let’s start with where they are and what they’ve done.

To put it bluntly, they’ve exceeded my expectations – though not by much. Before the season, I thought they’d be 4-3 before the bye, with road losses at Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City.

Instead, they’re 5-2, just a tick behind 4-1-1 Green Bay for the NFC North lead, and have the best overall point differential in the conference. (Thanks, Bears!)

This sums up where they are and what they’ve done. Now, let’s look to what lies ahead for the Lions.

The good news

There’s no “super team” out there. The Chiefs’ dynasty looks like it’s over, and the NFC is wide open. Beyond that, so are the playoffs – and potentially even a Super Bowl with a favorable matchup.

Sure, there are good teams. There are always good teams. But there’s no clear Goliath. And even if there were, the Lions would be in contention for that title based on their record and history of sustained excellence since that 8-2 finish to the 2023 season.

More good news

The Lions are good and should be getting even better because they’re expected to get healthier.

“The good news is that we are going to start to get a lot of players back,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said Monday, Oct. 20, after the Lions’ win over Tampa Bay. “You are going to see players start to come back over the next month, so that is encouraging. While we are only getting better and better, we are going to start getting some of our players back, too.”

Most of the crucial missing players are on defense, and that’s where the Lions should get the most help. Safety Brian Branch will return from his one-game suspension. He’ll soon be joined by All-Pro safety Kerby Joseph, cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed.

Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez is expected to start practicing, and defensive end Marcus Davenport might return before Thanksgiving.

That’s a lot of help for a defense that’s holding its own with stellar play from replacements.

The bad news

Let’s stay with health. It would be nice to think in the most positive terms about players coming back. But NFL gods giveth as much as they taketh. The Lions are likely to suffer other injuries and significant ones at that. Let’s not forget that they’ve been pretty lucky to avoid significant injuries on offense.

So as encouraging as it is to think they’ll only be adding players, it’s reasonable to assume they’ll lose some key players to balance out the scales of health luck. If they were to lose a crucial player such as Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Penei Sewell, all bets are off.

It won’t be easy

When they come back from the bye, the Lions begin a 10-game sprint that starts at home against Minnesota, followed by challenging road games against Washington and Philadelphia in Weeks 10 and 11. The Commanders game will largely hinge on whether quarterback Jayden Daniels returns from a hamstring injury.

The Eagles game will be tough, but they have their own problems: The Lions are the second opponent in a five-game stretch for Philly that includes the Packers, a game in Dallas (where the Cowboys are undefeated), plus the surging Bears and the Chargers.

After playing Philly, the Lions get three straight home games: Week 12 against the New York Giants, then a Thanksgiving payback game against the Packers, followed by the Cowboys in Week 14.

The only loss I see in this six-game stretch is against Philly or Washington, which puts the Lions at 10-3 heading into their last four games: at the LA Rams (hey, Matthew Stafford!), home against the Steelers and on the road against Minnesota and Chicago.

I only see a loss to the Rams in these four games. That means the Lions finish 13-4. They’ll win the NFC North and either get the second or third seed.

“There’s a lot of good teams right now that are sitting kind of where we’re at,” Campbell said Tuesday. “But I love it, because November shakes everything out. That’s where you begin to get the big separation. You’ll begin to see it.

“Some will start dropping and some will continue to move up. This is where you can really set yourself up in December is with November.”

And we all know a good December can set up the Lions for January – and a chance at redemption after last season’s early playoff exit.

Contact Carlos Monarrez at [email protected] and follow him on X @cmonarrez.

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