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Can Memphis basketball steady itself and get a win over San Francisco? Our prediction

A once-promising outlook − as depicted by Memphis basketball coach Penny Hardaway − has recently become engulfed by a shroud of gloom.

That’s how the start of the 2025-26 season sets up, and the Tigers will be tested immediately. San Francisco (1-0) visits FedExForum, where it will meet Memphis on Nov. 8 (2 p.m., ESPN+).

Throughout much of the offseason, Hardaway was upbeat and optimistic. In September, he said his new 15-man roster was among the most talented he’s had at Memphis, second only to the 2021-22 team, which featured Jalen Duren, DeAndre Williams, Lester Quinones, Emoni Bates, Josh Minott and more.

After losing both exhibition games − to Arkansas and Auburn − in a 72-hour span by a combined 53 points, Hardaway’s tone shifted.

“I did come into this week way more excited,” he said after the Auburn game on Oct. 30. “I’ve been seeing some really good things (in practice). Right now, I don’t say I’m worried, because I understand what’s what now. I’m going to find a group of seven that’s going to give me everything they have.

“I think we’ll be OK, it’s just a matter of, ‘When is it going to click?’ “

Here are three things we’re thinking about ahead of tip-off.

Who is Memphis basketball?

If there is anything weighing heaviest on the Tigers, it’s what they will look like − both personnel-wise and from an identity standpoint.

As recently as Nov. 5, Hardaway still wasn’t sure who will start in the opener. Dug McDaniel and Ashton Hardaway are the only players who started both exhibition games. Others who started one or the other include Aaron Bradshaw, Sincere Parker, Curtis Givens III, Zach Davis, Julius Thedford and Thierno Sylla.

Hardaway has also praised the depth on his roster through much of the offseason. But now he is indicating he will trim his rotation to just seven or eight, because that’s the number of players he trusts to play the way he wants them to play. He has not revealed who is part of that group.

Beyond that, it’s even uncertain what the offense and defense will look like. Hardaway said he stuck with a more conceptual-based approach on offense in the exhibition games, electing instead to install plays and packages during game week.

Memphis basketball injury, progress report

Another part of Hardaway’s overall consternation stems from where things stand with forward Hasan Abdul Hakim and center Tariq Ingraham.

Both are still expected to be prominent factors in the Tigers’ overall plans this season. But neither is able or ready to fully contribute yet.

“Hasan is still laboring on a quad,” Hardaway said. “We think we have it about 75-80%. That’s a guy I’m really relying on this season. When he’s healthy, he’s pretty good. He’s frustrated because of the injury. He’s definitely not been himself at all.”

Ingraham was a late addition because the NCAA did not approve his waiver request for a seventh season of competition until September. Because of that, according to Hardaway, the 6-foot-9 big man is playing catch-up.

“When he first got here, he just wasn’t ready to play,” said Hardaway. “We brought him in to be a force, and we’re going to need him to be a force.”

Unless and until Abdul Hakim and Ingraham get where they need to be, it likely means more minutes for Ashton Hardaway, Sylla and Simon Majok.

San Francisco basketball scouting report

Memphis scored a narrow win over the Dons in San Francisco in 2024-25, but neither teams’ roster closely resembles those from last season.

Chris Gerlufsen’s team shot 53% from the field in a Nov. 3 win over Division III UC Santa Cruz, knocking down 11 3-pointers (on 28 attempts). True freshman Legend Smiley (18 points), Oregon transfer Mookie Cook (12) and holdover Veniamin Abosi (11) all came off the bench to lead the Dons in scoring.

Hardaway expects an organized, disciplined opponent in San Francisco.

“They’re going to move the ball, they’re going to move bodies. They’re going to try to expose your pick-and-roll defense, expose your switching, expose the energy we put into the ball,” he said. “Then, defensively, they’re going to get into the gaps and try to make life hard on us especially after watching the Auburn game.”

Memphis basketball score prediction vs. San Francisco

Memphis 81, San Francisco 77: The Tigers are a long way from polished. But it’s a long trip for the Dons, and Memphis’ dismal display against Auburn in its second exhibition game will turn out to be some semblance of a wake-up call.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at [email protected], follow him @munzly on X.

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