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Here’s the 49ers’ formula moving forward after a blowout loss to the Rams

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The 49ers’ defense failed Sunday, and it failed miserably.

That was clear on the scoreboard, which showed a 42-26 whipping in favor of the Los Angeles Rams. It was clear on the stat sheet, where Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford delivered 0.61 expected points every single time he dropped back to pass — a 97th percentile performance.

And it was clear in the locker room afterward, where 49ers linebacker Fred Warner — wheeling his fractured ankle around in a knee scooter — conversed somberly with left tackle Trent Williams at his fellow star’s stall.

It was quiet the contrast from when the 49ers last played the Rams and notched a shocking victory. That was just over a month ago, when Warner was still healthy. And he’d been boisterous in that victorious locker room, shouting about how the 49ers had stepped up defensively after the Rams thought they could “big-boy” them out of the building on the decisive fourth down.

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Playing not just without Warner this time, but also without rookie stalwart defensive linemen Mykel Williams and Alfred Collins (and, of course, Nick Bosa), the Rams finally did successfully big-boy the 49ers.

First, they stampeded defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s defense — the 49ers ranked No. 6 in run defense entering this game — on the ground. Without Williams and Collins, it looked like 2024 again for the 49ers’ run defense (that’s a recipe for disaster, because they ranked No. 29 last season). The Rams finished with 126 rushing yards.

Then, Stafford eviscerated the 49ers’ back seven.

A flurry of missed tackles, broken coverages, and straight-up one-on-one losses later, 49ers tight end George Kittle took the postgame lectern to articulately state the obvious: With players such as Bosa and Warner merely headlining the defense’s staggeringly long injury list, it’s primarily up to the 49ers’ offense to give this team a fighting chance.

“We started the game off with a punt, a fumble, a fourth-down turnover, a touchdown, and a punt,” Kittle said. “Our team is going to have to rely on our really good veteran offense to score a lot of points and not turn the ball over. And we didn’t really do that today.”

49ers tight end George Kittle believes the offense needs to carry the team over its final seven games. | Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard

The 49ers actually didn’t do too poorly in the final points tally — they ended with 26 against a Rams defense that had allowed a grand total of only 20 points over its three games since losing to San Francisco in Week 5. Although that’s not a bad output against the NFL’s No. 1 defense, the 49ers’ failures came in the giveaway department — and they were crushing given the tightrope the team needed to walk to have a chance at victory in this game.

Receiver Jauan Jennings fumbled away a reception in the first half. Then, the Rams swarmed 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey on a fourth-down stuff that kept even more likely points off the board for the home team. Call it revenge for the 49ers’ dramatic overtime stop of Rams running back Kyren Williams, the punctuating play of that October upset win.

With the 49ers scrapping to stay alive in the second half, quarterback Mac Jones — who otherwise played a fantastic game (he was 33-of-39 for 319 yards) — got caught flat-footed before he forced a fourth-down interception that landed in the hands of Rams defensive back Emmanuel Forbes Jr.

Perfection was needed from the 49ers’ offense on this afternoon and when it wasn’t attained, the Rams wiped the floor with the 49ers. Such is San Francisco’s setup against top-tier opponents.

“Our offense has to play at a high level — efficient, not turn the ball over, score points, score in the red zone — and then we’ll win a lot of games,” Kittle said. “But if we’re not going to do that, that’s going to happen.”

The good news for the 49ers is that they won’t play an opponent of the Rams’ caliber for quite some time. The Indianapolis Colts are very good, but they aren’t on the schedule until Dec. 22. The Seattle Seahawks are the NFL’s No. 1 team by EPA, but the 49ers’ rematch with them isn’t until the final week of the regular season.

Robert Saleh’s young defense has been hit by a wave of significant injuries to stars. | Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard

Before then, the 49ers — who are now 6-4 but haven’t won consecutive games since opening 3-0 — should clearly have the opportunity to stack some wins against worse competition.

That starts with next week’s trip to face the Arizona Cardinals, who fell 44-22 to Seattle on Sunday.

Coach Kyle Shanahan said there’s a chance starting quarterback Brock Purdy is back for that game in his home state. Although Purdy was healthy enough to be in uniform as a backup Sunday, Shanahan said he decided to hold him as a precaution. Knowing that they need top-shelf offensive consistency, the 49ers are desperate to avoid a relapse of what happened earlier this season: Purdy returned from his toe injury against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sept. 28 only to aggravate the issue.

“Our dilemma — or what we’re trying not to do — is put him out in the situation we did against Jacksonville,” Shanahan said. “I do believe he’s closer and further along than he was at that time.”

There’s also an implicit recognition that Purdy, if he’s to elevate the 49ers’ offense, will have to bring his signature mobility to the field. That’s what Jones lacks in comparison, but it’s also what might be most compromised by Purdy’s toe injury — and what might be most needed for a 49ers’ offense that seems destined to play in frequent shootouts from here on out.

Still, the 49ers must stay the course, because these are the cards they’ve been dealt. And it’s clear that, regardless of how the QB health situation shakes out, they can use at least a little more help from a defense that was hopelessly roasted for most of Sunday.

Defensive lineman Jordan Elliott is part of a unit that’s missing three of its top players right now. | Source: Amber Pietz/The Standard

“I thoroughly believe that we can score a ton of points and I do also believe our defense will get just a little better every single week,” Kittle said. “I truthfully believe that. They’ve just been taking haymakers year round with all those injuries. But Saleh’s such a good coach; he’s going to bump those guys up. They’re going to get some stops.”

That may sound like wishful thinking in the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s bloodbath. But perhaps the Rams themselves, whom the 49ers emulated with their 2025 offseason roster reset, provide some hope. Los Angeles also fielded a young defense last season and ranked No. 29 in EPA on that side of the ball through three months (entering Sunday, the 49ers ranked No. 26 in EPA since Bosa’s Week 3 injury). The Rams then surged over the final month and playoffs, suddenly ranking No. 5 on defense over that closing stretch.

The limping 49ers’ defense almost certainly doesn’t have that big of a jump in the tank, but some improvement must be possible.

In fact, it’s probably mandatory to keep this team in a 2025 playoff hunt. Because even though Kittle is confident that his team can deliver cleaner offense moving forward, it failed to deliver against a Herculean challenge on Sunday.

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