Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the government shutdown that ended earlier this month will not create a recession risk for the broader U.S. economy and American families would see “substantial refunds” next year.
In an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Bessent said that while portions of the U.S. economy such as housing were in a recession due to elevated interest rates, he did not expect the broader U.S. economy to plunge into a recession in the coming months.
“I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, non-inflationary growth economy,” the secretary said.
Bessent then cited provisions under the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed earlier this year that he said would spur economic growth.
“So under the One Big Beautiful Bill, especially for working Americans, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, auto deductibility on loans for American cars, that’s all kicking in,” he said.
“Americans have not changed their withholdings. So we are going to see substantial, substantial refunds to working families in the first quarter of 2026. Americans will change their withholding. And they will get an increase in real income.”
A rash of trade deals would also help boost the economy, Bessent added, predicting new plant openings across the country.
“The trade deals that we’ve done, I was just at [my] home town, Charleston, South Carolina. Boeing is expanding their Dreamliner plant, 1,000 new jobs,” Bessent said.
President Donald Trump earlier this month signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, extending funding through Jan. 30, and setting the stage for another potential showdown between Democrats and Republicans next year. Democrats had wanted a stopgap measure to end the shutdown to include an extension on health care subsidies that are due to expire at the end of the year.
The Trump administration also plans an announcement this week aimed at lowering health care costs, Bessent said, echoing similar remarks from a senior White House official last week, but giving no details.
Also on Sunday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he expected 2026 to be “an absolute blockbuster year,” although there would be a “hiccup” in the fourth quarter of this year because of the country’s longest government shutdown.
The comments from Bessent and Hassett come as Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said in an interview on Saturday that she’s still leaning against the central bank cutting its benchmark interest rates. The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, and the Fed cut rates by a quarter of a point at its most recent meeting in late October.
“My own view is that policy is currently in the kind of mildly restrictive range after the 50-basis-point easing that we did in September and October, and that’s appropriate” due to the current state of the U.S. economy, Collins told reporters at a news conference.
Members of the Trump administration, including Bessent, have wanted the Fed to lower interest rates as they have said that inflation has leveled off.
Reuters contributed to this report.
