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SEC tiebreaker scenarios: How Alabama, Ole Miss, others can reach title game

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Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect Texas A&M’s loss to Texas on Friday, Nov. 28.

Perhaps as expected when the college football season kicked off a little over two months ago, the two spots for the SEC championship game remain up for grabs as the conference heads into Week 14, commonly known as Rivalry Week.

So, who will make the trip to Atlanta?

Entering Saturday’s slate of Week 14 games, two teams remain in the mix for the conference championship game with No. 6 Ole Miss (No. 7 in College Football Playoff rankings) and No. 10 Alabama (No. 10 in CFP rankings). As a result of No. 3 Texas A&M’s loss (No. 3 in CFP rankings) to No. 16 Texas (No. 16 in CFP rankings), No. 4 Georgia (No. 4 in CFP rankings) secured its spot in the SEC championship game.

The Aggies had two paths to the SEC title game entering Week 14, with both being erased before the clock hit midnight on Saturday. Mike Elko’s squad needed either a win vs. Texas or an Alabama loss to Auburn and an Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State to make the title game for the first time in program history. That latter path of the two was wiped out with Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin winning the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State 38-19.

The likely team to join the Bulldogs in Atlanta is Alabama. Despite being on the bubble of the 12-team CFP bracket as a two-loss team, the Crimson Tide’s four consecutive wins over top-25-ranked opponents — Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee — in 21 days have Alabama one win away from returning to Atlanta for the second time in the last three years.

As for the Rebels, they could find themselves in the SEC championship game, which is set for Saturday, Dec. 6 at 4 p.m. ET inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, if they get some help from another SEC member on Nov. 29.

Here’s a look at each team’s path to an SEC championship game berth entering Week 14:

SEC championship tiebreakers

Alabama (9-2, 6-1 in SEC play)

  • Path to SEC championship game: Beat Auburn

Despite coughing up a chance to clinch its spot in the SEC championship game back in Week 12 with its home loss to Oklahoma, Alabama still has a straightforward path to Atlanta. The reason for this is that the Crimson Tide only needs a win in The Iron Bowl against Auburn to make its first trip to Atlanta under Kalen DeBoer.

A win over Auburn and an appearance in the SEC title game could also help Alabama’s College Football Playoff picture, as it was right on the bubble at the No. 10 seed in the fourth CFP top 25 unveiling on Tuesday.

Ole Miss (11-1, 6-1 in SEC play)

  • Path to SEC championship game: Beat Mississippi State AND Alabama loss to Auburn AND Texas A&M loss to Texas

It’s hard not to have a conversation about the postseason at this current moment without mentioning Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin. The Rebels are 11-1 on the season, hold a projected No. 7 seed in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket and are having one of their best seasons in recent program history.

Despite that, the Rebels’ path to Atlanta might be the most difficult one among the four teams in the mix, especially among the one-loss SEC teams. Ole Miss already defeated Mississippi State in The Egg Bowl and saw Texas upset Texas A&M on Nov. 29. All that is left for the Rebels to clinch an SEC championship game berth is an Alabama loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Georgia (11-1, 7-1 in SEC play)

  • Path to SEC championship game: Alabama loss to Auburn OR Texas A&M loss to Texas

Georgia has clinched a berth in the SEC title game following Texas A&M’s loss to Texas. The only question now is whether the Bulldogs will face Alabama or Ole Miss in Atlanta. If the Crimson Tide wins the Iron Bowl, it’ll be Georgia-Alabama. If Auburn wins, it’ll be Georgia-Ole Miss.

Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1 in SEC play)

  • Path to SEC championship game: Beat Texas

Texas A&M has been eliminated from SEC title game contention following its loss to rival Texas. Elko and Co. now turn their eyes to the CFP.

SEC tiebreaker rules

Here’s how the SEC’s tiebreaker rules work in order, according to the conference office:

  • A. Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
  • B. Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
  • C. Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
  • D. Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
  • E. Capped relative total scoring margin (see Appendix A) per SportSource Analytics versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams
  • F. Random draw of the tied teams

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