The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
Today’s search for the Regression Reaper starts with a look at how teams are operating inside the ten yard line (the green zone), particularly teams that are establishing the run near pay dirt. Below is a quick and dirty look at NFL offenses with the lowest pass rate over expected (PROE) through Week 13 and what that might mean for the teams’ fantasy-relevant players.
Bucky Irving returned in Week 13 and immediately looked like a weekly RB1. Coming off a goose egg in Week 12, Jameson Williams also rebounded in his latest outing. With Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up, Williams could be a WR1 to close the fantasy football regular season.
Run Heavy Green Zone Offenses
- Browns (-17 percent PROE)
- Bears (-15 percent)
- Saints (-14 percent)
- Eagles (-14 percent)
- Seahawks (-12 percent)
- Commanders (-12 percent)
- Colts (-11 percent)
- Bills (-10 percent)
- Falcons (-10 percent)
- Giants (-10 percent)
- Chicago’s running backs aren’t going to combine for 45 carries and 255 yards the way they did last week against the Eagles. Maybe you knew that. But the Bears have consistently been (massively) run-first inside the ten-yard line, which should open up weekly chances for both Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift to punch it into the end zone from short range. Conversely, Chicago pass catchers have (almost) no touchdown prospects when the Bears are in close. Caleb Williams has a mere 16 pass attempts inside the ten-yard line over 11 games this season. For context: Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 48 green zone throws.
- If Chris Rodriguez — a Regression Files bro in Week 13 — really is the Commanders’ lead back for the remainder of the season, he could have sneaky touchdown-based upside in a Washington offense that establishes it inside the ten. Rodriguez over the team’s past two games leads the Commanders in green zone rushing attempts (and rushes overall). On the season C-Rod leads Washington with six inside-the-five rushes. It’s a nice role in an offense that rarely passes near the end zone.
- Quinshon Judkins has weekly touchdown equity in part because he’s dominating carries in the Browns backfield and because Cleveland hardly ever throws the ball inside the ten. In Week 12 against the Raiders, the Browns were 38 percent below their expected pass rate in the green zone. They were -24 percent PROE in Week 11. You get the idea.
- Things are bleak for Buffalo pass catchers (more on that below) in no small part because the Bills pretty much stop throwing the football when they breach the red zone. The Bills as a team has nine receptions inside the ten yard line in 2025. Relatedly, James Cook and Josh Allen have combined for 33 inside-the-ten rushes through Week 13 — 17 for Allen, 16 for Cook.
Is Bryce Young Good Or Bad? It Depends
One more thing before we get into this week’s official regression candidates. I wanted to come up with some rationale as to why Bryce Young alternates between looking like an XFL backup and a top-half NFL starter, sometimes in back-to-back weeks. The guy was dreadful against the 49ers and their bottom-five defense in Week 12 before tearing up a respectable Rams secondary in the most run-heavy game plan of the 2025 NFL season in Week 13. It’s maddening for fantasy managers trying to pick their spots with streaming Young or playing him in superflex formats.
It all comes down to Young’s discrepancies between zone coverage matchups and man coverage matchups. Against man-heavy secondaries, Young in 2025 has been downright miserable, as he was in 2024. He ranks 31st out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in accuracy against man coverage looks and 22nd in adjusted yards per attempt. Young is 26th in fantasy points per dropback when facing man coverage looks this season. You might say that’s because he lacks man coverage beaters outside of (maybe) Tetairoa McMillan. That’s fair. Sort of.
Young against zone looks is another story. He’s the league’s ninth-most accurate QB against zone through Week 13, though his adjusted yards per attempt is similar to his AYA against man coverage. Young’s deep throw rate spikes against zone coverage too. Maybe it won’t come as a shock to you that the Rams play zone at a 77 percent clip, one of the NFL’s highest rates. Bryce had a good time against that coverage on Sunday.
When the Panthers return from their bye in Week 15, they’ll take on a Saints defense that plays zone on 75 percent of their defensive snaps and allow the sixth-highest rate of fantasy points per drop back when playing zone. It would seem to be a fine spot for Young. Just don’t look at his box score the last time the Panthers faced New Orleans (124 scoreless yards and one pick).
Eric Samulski breaks down his fantasy football defense rankings for Week 14 of the NFL season
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Caleb Williams (CHI)
Bears faithful have kindly asked me in recent weeks to say nice things about Caleb, to whom I may have been unfair early in the 2025 season as he adjusted to Ben Johnson’s offense. I complied and offered one compliment for Caleb — he’s fast — but I have another one for the collection.
Williams has been unlucky this season, more so than any other quarterback depending on which metrics you examine. I’ll do air yards, since it’s my favorite: The Bears in 2025 lead the NFL by a wide margin in air yards lost due to dropped passes. As I’ve mentioned (almost) every week in Regression Files, there are quite a few air yards to go around in this balanced Ben Johnson offense. That precious few of those air yards are being converted into edible, real-life yards isn’t Williams’ fault entirely (even if his completion rate over expected remains dismally low).
Probably you were starting Williams in 12-team formats before you heard about his poor luck. Now you can feel slightly better about the whole thing knowing variance might eventually break in favor of Caleb and the Bears’ pass catchers.
John Metchie (NYJ)
Metchie ran pretty cold in Week 13 against Atlanta, managing just four catches for 19 yards on eight targets while leading the Jets in routes and seeing a target on a halfway decent 20 percent of his routes.
The Jets’ target distribution has become rather concentrated in a decidedly fantasy friendly way of late. Metchie and Adonai Mitchell have accounted for 56 percent of the team’s targets and 79 percent of the team’s air yards over the past two games with Tyrod Taylor under center.
Mitchell’s air yards domination means he’s the weekly ceiling option in the New York passing offense. Mitchell over the past two games has taken in 64 percent of the Jets’ air yards; his 359 air yards over that span comfortably leads all NFL pass catchers. Combine that with a hearty 31 percent targets per route run and Mitchell is an absurdly appealing fantasy option who has as much upside as any non-elite receiver in the game. Your favorite regression knower may have told you this seven days ago.
Metchie remains interesting as a more floor-based play. He’s running all the routes and averaging a nice and safe 6.2 air yards per target. With the Jets entering Week 14 as heavy underdogs against the Dolphins, Metchie could be a fine volume-based play in 12-team leagues. He appears locked in for 8-10 targets unless game script goes haywire, which isn’t exactly outside the range of outcomes when it comes to the Jets.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
McLaurin appears healthy on Sunday night for the first time since September. The Commanders had given him time off to heal from a serious quad injury and McLaurin returned looking more like the 2024 version of himself — the one that helped lead folks to fantasy championships.
McLaurin against an elite Broncos secondary led the Commanders with 14 targets, catching seven balls for 96 yards and a touchdown. It’s even better than it seems though: McLaurin ran a route on just 59 percent of Washington’s drop backs against Denver and saw a target on 44 percent of those routes, a rate that might be described as Beyond Elite. He logged 180 air yards (37 percent share), the second highest air yards total of any receiver in Week 13. It was more than double his season average of 78 air yards per game.
This is where I pour the bucket of cold water and throw it in your face. The Commanders, chasing points for much of the second half and having little success on the ground, had 50 pass attempts against Denver on Sunday night. Going into Week 13, Washington had averaged 28 passes per game.
There’s more bad news from the Regression Reaper. The Commanders had averaged 222 air yards per contest before their matchup with Denver; on Sunday they led the NFL with an eye-popping 499 air yards. It was enough pass/air yards volume to support both McLaurin and Zach Ertz as top-end fantasy producers at their respective positions.
McLaurin appeared explosive and fully back from his injury. That’s good. Washington pass catchers aren’t going to have 500 air yards on which to feast in Week 14 against Minnesota. In fact, they’ll probably have less than half of that. The Reaper looms.
Devaughn Vele (NO)
Is this me doubling down on my anti-Vele take from last week’s Rotoworld Football Show? Maybe. But I’m right. You’ll see.
I pointed out last week that Vele, who emerged as a Saints starter after the team shipped Rashid Shaheed to Seattle, was not going to be a Thing in fantasy. He had run close to all the routes in the New Orleans offense over his two games headed into Week 13, and had totaled three catches for 37 yards, drawing a target on a mere 14 percent of his pass routes. Vele’s yard per route run was well below one. That’s bad.
In Week 13 against the Dolphins, Vele went Goblin Mode, catching all eight of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Maybe he’s a Rotoworld Football Show listener and took my take personally. Who knows.
Against Miami, Vele saw a target on 21 percent of his routes, hardly a fantastic rate. He was, however, tied with Chris Olave with five first-read targets from Tyler Shough. That’s an important data point. That the Saints weren’t particularly pass-heavy in Week 13 — in other words, his production wasn’t the product of inflated pass attempts — might mean Vele can retain some WR3 value in PPR leagues.
A Week 14 matchup against the pass-funnel Tampa defense could certainly create the sort of drop back volume Vele might need to get there for fantasy purposes unless he’s going to start commanding targets at a (much) higher clip.
Isaiah Likely (BAL)
Likely was the latest in a long line of tight ends to put up (relatively) gaudy numbers against a Bengals coverage unit almost custom made to be exploited by capable tight ends. Likely in Week 13 against Cincy had five catches for 95 yards on six targets.
Likely ran a route on 52 percent of Lamar Jackson’s drop backs while Mark Andrews had a route rate of 66 percent, normal usage for the Baltimore tight ends. Likely was targeted on 30 percent of his routes, more than double his season-long target per route run of 14 percent. He averaged 8.8 yards after the catch per reception on Thanksgiving night, double his season-long mark. It’s the kind of thing that happens when a tight end faces the Bengals.
The low-volume Baltimore passing attack had a season-high 32 attempts against the Bengals. It’s something to consider when thinking about Likely as a Week 14 option against the Steelers (who allow 8.2 tight end targets per game, the sixth highest rate in the league).
Keon Coleman (BUF)
Have a little shame if you started Coleman in Week 13 against the Steelers. Feel badly about getting away with eight PPR points.
In a game that saw Josh Allen average 1.7 air yards per attempt and Dawson Knox lead the Bills with 17 air yards, Coleman caught a touchdown on his three targets. Whatever. I’m not mad.
This goes beyond Coleman though. None of the Buffalo wideouts are reliable options thanks to a spread-out target distribution and route participation rate. None of the Bills receivers are running more than 70 percent of the routes in a given week. Against the Steelers in Week 13, Khalil Shakir — the team’s presumed WR1 — ran a route on half of Allen’s drop backs and had one grab on four targets. Shakir’s 73 targets on the season ranks 40th in the NFL and leads the Bills. It’s an ugly scene.
Anyway, Coleman isn’t fantasy viable until further notice. Maybe you knew that though.
