‘Tis the season for prognosticating who will win NFL superlatives. Hot takes are everywhere, so we’ll try to avoid being prisoners of the moment and instead focus on what the film has shown over the first 13 weeks and drill down into the stats. Here’s how I think the award races shake out as Week 14 gets underway.
MVP
This is a quarterback’s award. There is no position more valuable to its team’s success in any sport.
1. Drake Maye, QB, Patriots
The Patriots are currently the No. 1 seed in the AFC and they do only one thing at an elite level: make big plays in the passing game. The defense is much improved, but has had injury issues and is far from an elite unit, ranking 26th in defensive DVOA. The running game has been inconsistent, ranking 27th in rushing success rate and 18th in explosive rush rate.
Maye ranks first in expected points added (EPA) per drop back and passer rating (111.9), third in adjusted completion rate (79.5 percent), second in yards per attempt (8.8), second in scramble yardage (321 yards) and has the seventh-best turnover-worthy play rate (2.6 percent). In just his second season, he’s already established himself as one of the quarterbacks that defensive coordinators have to be very selective of when to blitz because he’s been lights out against it. He ranks second in passer rating when blitzed.
Where Maye has really excelled is with deep passing. On throws of over 20 air yards, Maye ranks first in EPA per drop back by a wide margin despite not having elite weapons. Though Stefon Diggs is having a fine bounce-back season, he’s no longer the field-tilting force he once was.
Maye is, without question, the best player and driving force on what could be the AFC’s top seed.
2. Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams
It’s crazy to think that Stafford was nearly dealt in the offseason. Thankfully for fans of really cool trick-shot throws, Stafford remained a Ram. Sure, he could have made plays elsewhere, but he’s a perfect fit for the Rams and they would not be playing like the best team in the league with someone else behind center.
Stafford, 37, isn’t as nimble as he used to be, but he’s mastered playing from the pocket, capable of making every throw from any arm angle, sometimes without even looking at his target. He’s also the best quarterback in the league before the snap, using his cadence to unravel defenses and making deft checks at the line. His ability to hunt and create big plays from the pocket is elite.
3. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers
I can feel you rolling your eyes at me, but the Chargers are 8-4, and the offense ranks 10th in points per drive (2.29) and 13th in offensive DVOA. They are doing this with a bottom-three offensive line. Do you understand how hard it is to operate an offense with a bottom-tier offensive line?
Herbert is under constant pressure, but he continues to make plays. Despite their pass-blocking issues, offensive coordinator Greg Roman has abandoned his run-heavy ways to put the ball in Herbert’s hands. The Chargers are second in Cook rate, which measures how often teams pass in neutral situations.
Herbert has scrambled more than he ever has in his career (7 percent of drop-backs) and ranks sixth in EPA per scramble. His playmaking ability has been crucial for the Chargers. He’s thrown 10 interceptions, but he has the third-best turnover-worthy play rate (1.8 percent), meaning he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way often, but defenses have capitalized on the rare instances that he has.
Honorable mentions: Sam Darnold, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen
Offensive Player of the Year
This was the most difficult category to choose from with so many deserving candidates.
1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
Somehow, it looks like Taylor is moving faster than he ever has. He’s created explosive runs at crucial times for the Colts. Through 13 weeks, he leads the league in total rushing yards (1,282) and total touchdowns (17). Taylor isn’t on pace to break 2,000 yards like last year’s OPOY, Saquon Barkley, but he’s having one of the most efficient/valuable seasons of all time and is tied with Marshall Faulk’s 2000 season in EPA per rush (0.18). To put that in perspective, only two quarterbacks this season have a higher EPA per drop-back.
YOU CAN’T STOP JONATHAN TAYLOR. 83-YARD TD.
ATLvsIND on @NFLNetwork
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— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
In a golden age of receiver play, Smith-Njigba is standing head and shoulders above the rest. Despite playing in the most run-heavy offense in the league and for a team that has built big leads by the fourth quarter, Smith-Njigba leads the league in receiving yards (1,336). He leads the league in yards per route run by a wide margin (4.17). Some thought Smith-Njigba was a slot-only player coming out of college, but he’s dispelled that notion, dominating from everywhere. His ability to win on “go” routes against press coverage stands out. His game reminds me of prime Antonio Brown.
3. Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Nacua was on a historic pace before injuring his ankle against the Ravens in Week 6, which caused him to miss a game. Since that time, the Rams have used more three-tight end sets with Davante Adams being the lone receiver, especially in the red zone. My guess is that part of the reason for doing this is to take some of the load off of Nacua.
His numbers have dropped off some, but he’s still been incredibly efficient, ranking second in the league in average yards per route run (3.36). However, the numbers don’t accurately reflect how valuable Nacua is to one of the league’s best offenses. He blocks like a tight end and coach Sean McVay utilizes that in their outside zone scheme. His ability to both run routes and block makes him an enigma for defenses.
Honorable mentions: Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, George Pickens
Defensive Player of the Year
This one was the easiest to choose from all the award categories.
1. Myles Garrett, DE, Browns
Garrett is the best player on a Cleveland defense that ranks third in DVOA. He will likely break the single-season sack record shared by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt, only needing four in the last five games to do it. He has 19 sacks through 12 games.
The Browns have certainly helped him by drafting defensive tackle Mason Graham and signing Maliek Collins, but Garrett is still getting chipped on almost every play and it just hasn’t mattered. He’s probably heavier than his listed weight of 272 pounds, but he moves with the quickness and burst of someone 40 pounds lighter. His most recent sack, going against future Hall of Famer Trent Williams, looked like an AI edit with how he avoided the chip and teleported inside.
Myles Garrett beats Trent Williams to get his 19th sack of the season 💪
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— NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025
2. Kyle Hamilton, S, Ravens
It is incredibly difficult for a safety to win this award unless he forces an abnormal number of turnovers. Hamilton’s effect on the game isn’t seen in individual stats, but it’s profound. Last season, when the Ravens struggled to defend deep passes, they moved Hamilton from the box to deep safety and they immediately became one of the best secondaries at stopping explosive passes. Early this season, they struggled to defend the run, so they moved Hamilton to the box, where he played everywhere along the front, including edge linebacker. They immediately became one of the best run defenses in the league. From Weeks 1-5, the Ravens ranked 21st in defensive rushing success rate. Since moving Hamilton to the box in Week 6, they rank fourth in the same category.
3. Will Anderson Jr., DE, Texans
Anderson leads all edge rushers in pressure rate and is tied with Micah Parsons for second in pass rush win rate. The Texans defense is terrifying and plays with its hair on fire. The system is built on the front four’s ability to create havoc, and Anderson leads the charge.
Honorable mentions: Leonard Williams, Micah Parsons, Patrick Surtain II
Protector of the Year
1. Trent Williams, OT, 49ers
Williams’ game is beginning to show signs of decline, but he’s still elite. Though he gave up a sack against Garrett, it took an unreal move from Garrett to get it and Williams had one of the best overall performances against the Browns’ star this season. This is the first year for this award, and giving it to Williams unfairly takes into consideration his career, but it’s just too fitting to give it to one of the best blockers I have ever watched.
2. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Buccaneers
Wirfs is your favorite offensive lineman’s favorite offensive lineman. He’s an unreal athlete and technician who will take the mantle from Williams when he retires. Truth is, he’s probably more deserving than Williams for the award this year, but he’ll likely win it more than once with a long career ahead of him.
The @BuffaloBills O-Line is in complete awe of @TristanWirfs78 😂@insidetheNFL Week 11 Mic’d Up on X pic.twitter.com/TZurGHqAp6
— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2025
3. Creed Humphrey, C, Chiefs
There is no bigger divide between one player and the rest of their position group. Humphrey is the unquestioned king of all centers. He leads the league in pass rush win rate among centers and he’s allowed only one sack going back to last season. He’s a joy to watch run block and a demon hunting down secondary players when he pulls or releases on screens.
Honorable mention: Penei Sewell, Lane Johnson, Quenton Nelson
Comeback player of the year
The AP has recently clarified that this award should go to a player who “demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
McCaffrey missed 13 games last season and gave fans a bit of a scare in Week 1. However, not only has he played in every game this season, but also he’s been tasked with handling the heaviest load of any player with 322 touches through 13 games. The 49ers have struggled to run block, which is why McCaffrey is only averaging 3.6 yards per rush, so he just casually turned himself into one of the league’s most productive slot receivers. He ranks fourth among all players (receivers and tight ends included) in catches (85) and 10th in receiving yards (805).
Christian McCaffrey has been a workhorse for the 49ers this season. (Kelley L. Cox / Imagn Images)
2. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Prescott missed nine games last season because of a hamstring injury. This season, he’s in the midst of a career year, throwing to one of the best receiving duos in the league.
3. Daniel Jones, QB, Colts
Does playing poorly and getting cut count as “other circumstances that led him to miss playing time”? If it does, Jones saving his career with the Colts deserves recognition. His play has fallen off in recent weeks, but his comeback from possibly becoming a career backup to a viable starter is noteworthy.
Coach of the Year
1. Mike Macdonald, Seahawks
In just his second season, he’s transformed Seattle’s defense into the best in the league and the team into a title contender. His decision to quickly move on from former offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to Klint Kubiak was crucial.
2. Ben Johnson, Bears
Johnson has been everything the Bears hoped for and more. His play-calling prowess has translated in Chicago and the offense went from 28th in explosive play rate in 2024 to third-best this year. More importantly, he has Caleb Williams on track to live up to his potential.
3. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
Not many coaches can keep their team afloat with their starting quarterback missing eight games or their All-Pro pass rusher (Nick Bosa) and middle linebacker (Fred Warner) out for the season. Shanahan and his staff have found ways to adapt and win despite all of the hardships.
Assistant Coach of the Year
1. Chris Shula, DC, Rams
The Rams are fourth in defensive DVOA and held the explosive Seahawks offense to its worst offensive outing of the season. He’ll be one of the hottest head coach candidates this offseason.
2. Klint Kubiak, OC, Seahawks
The Seahawks rank seventh in explosive play rate despite seven games this season in which they had double-digit leads in the fourth quarter and got into their four-minute offense early. Kubiak knows this system inside and out, and it shows up in the detail-oriented approach with which his offense plays.
3. Jeff Hafley, DC, Packers
It certainly helps acquiring Micah Parsons before the season, but Hafley does a great job of disguising, and his week-to-week game plans and this defense were already trending up when he was hired last season.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
1. Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants
Dart didn’t start until Week 4 and missed two games with a concussion. If he misses more time, some voters could use that against him. Dart’s impact on the Giants offense is undeniable. He sparked a lifeless offense and will make the Giants one of the most sought-after coaching jobs this offseason. His legs are obviously an asset, but he’s quickly developing as a pocket passer and has high-level accuracy.
2. Tyler Warren, TE, Colts
Tight end is one of the hardest positions to excel at as a rookie, but Warren has quickly established himself as one of the best in the league. Coach Shane Steichen asks a lot of him mentally, lining him up everywhere and running a wide variety of routes. He catches everything thrown his way, he’s been a surprisingly good blocker and is even an effective short-yardage back.
3. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers
McMillan is an excellent route runner at 6-5, 212 pounds. He leads all rookies in receptions (57), yards (826), and is tied with Tampa Bay’s Emeka Egbuka in touchdown catches (6). He was a bona fide No. 1 receiver as soon as he landed in Carolina.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
1. Carson Schwesinger, LB, Browns
Schwesinger wears the green dot for one of the NFL’s best defenses. He’s seventh among off-ball linebackers in run stuffs and tackles for losses, has two interceptions, 1.5 sacks and six quarterback hits. He’s already arguably a top-10 inside linebacker.
Carson Schwesinger has wasted no time becoming a main cog in the Browns defense. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
2. Nick Emmanwori, S, Seahawks
Seattle drafted him with the thought that he could play the Kyle Hamilton role in Mike Macdonald’s defense. His versatility has been key to the Seahawks’ ability to stay in sub personnel and defend the run. He’s had some lapses in coverage, but also some elite-looking reps.
3. Will Johnson, CB, Cardinals
Johnson has played in only seven games, but he’s been excellent in the Cardinals’ zone-heavy scheme, knocking down six passes and forcing a fumble.
