MLB held its fourth annual draft lottery at the winter meetings in Orlando on Tuesday, and the Chicago White Sox landed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB draft.
It’s still very early in the draft process, but it’s a perfect time for a quick five-pick mini-mock draft to see how things could play out in July. Four of the five players in last winter’s edition of this exercise landed in the top 11 picks on draft day, so it’s fair to think we have a reasonable idea of how the top picks will play out even though a lot can change in the seven months ahead.
Here is my early prediction for the first five picks in the 2026 MLB draft, after consulting with industry sources combined with my own scouting.
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Cholowsky was a big name in the 2023 draft, ranking 32nd on my final board as a standout defender with solid tools, but questions on his overall offensive upside along with a big asking price. His bonus price wasn’t met and he was solid as a freshman at UCLA, then took a huge jump forward as a sophomore, hitting 23 home runs last season.
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He is still a standout defender but now both his (above-average) hit and (plus) power tools have developed, allowing evaluators to go back over the past decade and find comps at the tops of previous drafts, such as Dansby Swanson or Troy Tulowitzki. Cholowsky has a pretty solid lead on the pack for the top pick right now, but it isn’t insurmountable due to the solid group of up-the-middle, high-upside talents in this class.
The lottery couldn’t have gone better for the White Sox after a 102-loss season, landing the top pick in a year in which there is a clear preseason favorite to be the top pick. Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery are solid shortstop options in the big leagues with Caleb Bonemer and Billy Carlson as top-100 types in the low minors, but Cholowsky would give the White Sox a great problem: too many good players at the most important position on the field.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (Texas) HS, Texas commit
Emerson has been touted as the top prep prospect in the 2026 class for years and has held that title through the summer showcase season and fall workouts. He’s a 6-foot-2, left-handed hitting shortstop who projects as above average to plus at almost everything on the field. He might not be truly plus-plus at anything right now, but he’s still only 17 years old, so that could develop.
2026 MLB Draft Order
The White Sox won the MLB draft lottery Tuesday, and they will pick first in next year’s draft:
Pick, Team1. Chicago White Sox2. Tampa Bay Rays3. Minnesota Twins4. San Francisco Giants5. Pittsburgh Pirates6. Kansas City Royals7. Baltimore Orioles8. Athletics9. Atlanta Braves10. Colorado Rockies11. Washington Nationals12. Los Angeles Angels13. St. Louis Cardinals14. Miami Marlins15. Arizona Diamondbacks16. Texas Rangers17. Houston Astros18. Cincinnati Reds
Given his long track record of being an elite prospect and being in the most desirable player demographic in the draft, he’s a consensus talent in this pick area, even for teams that don’t normally take high school players at the top. The Rays are not that team, taking a prep shortstop in the top two rounds in each of the past three drafts; Tampa Bay also loves left-handed hitters. Emerson is the rare prep prospect who is a safer pick than the vast majority of college players but also comes with more upside.
3. Minnesota Twins: Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
Lebron was scouted as part of the loaded 2023 prep class alongside prep teammate Antonio Jimenez, who was a third-round pick of the Mets out of UCF in 2025. Lebron’s offense and athleticism each jumped a tick right when he got to Tuscaloosa and the 6-foot-2 shortstop is now a plus runner, thrower and defender with above-average raw power. His pitch selection is fine with the only question being about his bat-to-ball ability due to worse-than-average miss rates last season, fueled somewhat by an uphill, power-driven approach. If Lebron can find a happy medium between his swing plane, contact and power, he could challenge Cholowsky as the top pick.
The Twins haven’t been scared of a little swing-and-miss if it comes with big upside in recent drafts, such as Billy Amick, Brandon Winokur and Quentin Young the past three years, but also love taking college shortstops such as Kaelen Culpepper, Marek Houston and Kyle DeBarge. Lebron threads the needle of certainty given his tools and positional profile but also untapped upside because of his contact/power balance being a little off-kilter at the moment.
4. San Francisco Giants: Drew Burress, CF, Georgia Tech
Burress was a pick to click of mine in the 2023 draft, ranking No. 40 on my board (among the highest ranks among media and teams), but ultimately proving unsignable to the teams that also had him in that range. He stands only 5-foot-8, so impact power wasn’t expected at that point, but he had more power than you might think given his size, along with a long track record of hitting for average, plus speed and center-field defense.
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Burress stepped forward at Georgia Tech, particularly when it came to power — hitting 25 homers as a freshman then 19 in his sophomore year — fueled by what is now above-average raw power. He grades as above average or plus in all five tools, but his approach/swing is more power-oriented than in high school, so balancing his abilities at the plate in pro ball could be key to reaching his ceiling. The Giants have picked college position players with their top three picks each of the past two years and probably will be staring at a best available player from that same demographic in 2026.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia
Gracia had almost no national scouting profile coming out of a New Jersey high school as a two-way player in 2023 before heading to Duke. He immediately showed scouts he should’ve been considered a true pro prospect out of high school, hitting .305 with 14 homers as a freshman, then following it up with more walks, fewer strikeouts and 15 homers as a sophomore. Gracia transferred to Virginia after the season, following much of the Duke coaching staff.
He is a 6-foot-3 center/right field tweener for now who is above average at almost everything in the batter’s box, especially his ability to lift/pull the ball in games, though his swing can get too uphill at times.
The Pirates seem to be turning the corner with Konnor Griffin and Bubba Chandler joining Paul Skenes & Co. while they’re also looking to spend money in free agency, so I see them leaning into the college position-player group that is a strength in this class.
