Betting ‘Thursday Night Football’: Buccaneers poised to bounce back; Bijan a popular pick in DFS

Dec 11, 2025, 10:30 AM ET

Week 15 of the NFL season gets underway with a matchup of NFC South rivals, as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Thursday Night Football.”

After a 3-2 start, the Falcons have dropped seven of their last eight and have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Buccaneers’ grip on a playoff spot is slipping as well following losses in four of their last five. Tampa Bay is 7-6, now tied with the Carolina Panthers atop the division.

The Buccaneers are 4.5-point favorites at home Thursday against the Falcons.

Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop bets, DFS plays and analysis to help you bet the game.

Note: Odds provided by DraftKings and subject to change.

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Picks | Props | DFS tips | Trends

Game picks

Notable player props, bets

Baker Mayfield UNDER 218.5 passing yards (-112)

Maldonado: Even if the Bucs get bodies back on offense, that doesn’t change the core problem. Mayfield has seven straight weeks of sub-6.0 YPA, bottom-tier accuracy, and zero explosive rhythm. If OT Tristan Wirfs or WR Mike Evans return, you’re adding names to an offense that still hasn’t shown functional passing efficiency. Atlanta blitzes at the second-highest rate, and Mayfield has been ineffective against pressure all season. Until his efficiency returns, every passing yard is a fight.

Passing props

Bucky Irving OVER 62.5 rushing yards (-114)

Bowen: Irving has at least 15 carries in back-to-back games since returning from injury in Week 13. Let’s trust that volume versus an Atlanta defense giving up 131 rushing yards per game.

Rushing props

Kyle Pitts Sr. OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-114)

Moody: The Falcons have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, and Drake London is dealing with a knee injury and has been ruled out, which means Atlanta should lean heavily on Pitts. He has seen eight or more targets and cleared this line in two consecutive games with Kirk Cousins under center.

Darnell Mooney 70+ receiving yards (+460)

Walder: Mooney has struggled with his hands this season. We can see that in his high 7.1% drop rate, and particularly so in his catch score of 22, an ESPN player-tracking metric that measures a receiver’s ability to make the catch relative to expectations about his play. His score this season, well below the average of roughly 50, is abnormal for him. From 2022-24, his catch scores were 54, 41 and 69, respectively, while his open score (55) is identical to last season and typical for him. Catch score is much more variant than open score, so I’d expect Mooney to convert more of his targets into receptions than he has thus far this season. And with London out again, I suspect Mooney should have a fair number of balls thrown his way.

Receiving props

Daily fantasy tips for DraftKings Captain Showdown

Bijan Robinson is the most reliable part of Atlanta’s offense, and his dual-threat ability should be on full display Thursday. Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire

Bowen’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Bijan Robinson ($16,000) has at least 22 touches in three of his past four games, plus one or more touchdowns in two of them. We can lean on his dual-threat ability and big-play juice.

Also in my lineup: Bucky Irving ($10,200). Baker Mayfield has thrown for under 200 yards in four straight games, and the potential return of Mike Evans clouds the outlook for the Bucs’ wide receivers. So, let’s go with Irving and the run game. Irving had 81 total yards and a touchdown last week versus the New Orleans Saints.

Maldonado’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Bijan Robinson ($16,000) is the only stable engine in this game. His rushing work is consistent, but his receiving role is the real edge against a defense ranked near the bottom allowing RB targets. With Atlanta’s WR room in shambles, every script feeds Robinson volume.

Also in my lineup: Kyle Pitts Sr. ($6,400) is functioning as Atlanta’s WR1 without Drake London. Tampa allows touchdowns to tight ends and is stretched in coverage. Pitts offers the only reliable receiving volume on either side that gives you a ceiling without volatility.

Moody’s recommendation

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Baker Mayfield ($15,000) has struggled lately, but there’s room for optimism. He is averaging 225.7 passing yards and 3.0 passing touchdowns over his last three meetings with Atlanta. The Falcons just gave up 249 yards and three touchdowns to Sam Darnold and rank ninth in run stop win rate over the last four games. Tampa Bay might need to rely on Mayfield’s arm, and an Evans return would boost his ceiling.

Walder’s recommendations

Captain (scores 1.5x fantasy points): Darnell Mooney ($9,900). For all the reasons stated in my bet above. Mooney’s production has suffered from his catching ability this season, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect that to continue. And by selecting a cheaper captain, we can fit in more expensive players into our lineup.

Also in my lineup: Kirk Cousins ($8,800). If I’m making Mooney my captain, I want a correlation play with the quarterback. It’s as simple as that.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their past five games, their longest ATS losing streak since 2022 (6).

• The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS at home this season. The Falcons have covered the last three meetings in Tampa Bay.

• Overs are 6-1 in the Falcons’ past seven games.

• The Falcons are 3-3 outright and 4-2 ATS as underdogs this season.