The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams face off in yet another critical NFC matchup. The Rams are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the conference, while Detroit is scrambling to just get into the postseason.
While the Lions need this game more, the Rams have been playing better football recently. But is the matchup as lopsided as it may seem? Let’s take a statistical look at the matchup in our Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams “On Paper” preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (8th in DVOA) vs. Rams pass defense (3rd)
The Detroit Lions passing attack remains one of the best in the league, and they’re trending in the right direction, too. Jared Goff has put together back-to-back strong performances against a good Packers’ defense and a Cowboys team that was showing improvement on that side of the ball.
The fact remains that by most statistical measures, this is a top-10 passing attack that is bordering on top-five:
- Third in passer rating (110.2)
- Third in yards per attempt (8.8)
- Eighth in dropback EPA (0.178)
- Ninth in dropback success rate (49.8%)
Protection remains the biggest issue with this unit. Jared Goff has already been sacked 27 times (t-11th most), which is just eight off from his career high (35 in 2021). Detroit ranks just 22nd in pass-blocking PFF grade, 19th in pressure rate allowed, 30th in pass-block win rate, and are allowing the quickest time to pressure in the league.
Still, they managed to handle that pretty well over the last two weeks, despite dealing with an injured interior offensive line and a couple of strong pass rushes. Part of the way they counteract that is by getting rid of the ball faster than everyone but two teams (2.70 time to throw), and relying on their playmakers to create yardage with the ball in their hands (first in YAC).
This is one of the more impressive pass defenses in football. They’ve allowed just four teams to reach a passer rating of 85 or above all season. Just about every metric shows this pass defense as a top-10 unit in football.
- Seventh in passer rating (83.3)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (6.5)
- Second in dropback EPA (-0.088)
- 11th in dropback success rate (44.3%)
I’m always intrigued when a team has a lower success rate than the rest of their stats suggest. Typically that means they are good at avoiding big plays and creating a lot of turnovers/sacks, but could be dinked and dunked to death.
That’s exactly the case for the Rams. LA ranks t-sixth in sacks (36), sixth in interceptions (13), and have given up the third-fewest passing plays of 20+ yards (29). By comparison, the Lions’ defense (31st) has allowed 47 passing plays of 20+ yards.
The way to beat this Rams’ defense is with the short passing game. On passes under 10 air yards, the Rams rank 23rd in yards allowed per game, 11th in EPA/pass, and 14th in yards after the catch over expected allowed. That does play nicely into the Lions’ strengths.
There are also some questions about their secondary, particularly without lynchpin safety Quentin Lake—a do-it-all player akin to Brian Branch. Emmanuel Forbes appears to be their weak link. In the past two weeks alone, Forbes has allowed nine receptions on 10 targets for 160 yards and three touchdowns, per PFF.
But they make up for it with a tenacious pass rush that manages to get pressure (36.2%, 10th) despite the fourth-lowest blitz rate (20.8%).
Player to watch: Kobie Turner. The Rams have plenty of pass rushing options (Byron Young, 11, and Jared Verse, 6, lead the team in sacks), but I’m most concerned about the interior pressure Turner provides. Turner ranks eighth among interior defenders in PFF pass rush grade (80.3) and his 41 pressures is tied for 10th. Against a Lions’ interior offensive line that could be rotating in a Day-3 rookie in his second game of NFL action, that is a bit concerning.
Advantage: Draw. While I think the Lions’ style of play could actually match up pretty well against the Rams, it’s the pass rush that ultimately concerns me. This year, Detroit has not fared particularly well against teams who can generate pressure with a four-man rush. So any optimism I have about the Lions’ receivers vs. this secondary is offset by the battle in the trenches.
Lions run offense (4th) vs. Rams run defense (3rd)
I’m still not fully convinced the Lions have a great rushing attack despite ranking fourth in DVOA and sixth in rush EPA. The explosive runs (14 of 20+ yards, first in NFL) are doing some heavy lifting here, but because of how often the Lions are doing it, it can’t just be ignored.
At the same time, the Lions have seven rushes of 40+ yards, which is not only first in the NFL, but 21 teams in the league don’t even have three runs like that. And the week-to-week inconsistencies, plus the relatively low success rate (41.5%, 17th), gives me continued skepticism of this unit.
- Third in yards per carry (5.0)
- Sixth in rush EPA (-0.001)
- 17th in success rate (41.5%)
Another concerning metric is Detroit’s short-yardage success, or lack thereof. Per FTN Fantasy, the Lions rank 27th in power success rate—a metric they ranked ninth in last year. The step back along the offensive line is clear as day, but, again, there has been a lot more good than bad in the past five weeks. Here’s where they rank since just Week 10 (Commanders):
- First in yards per carry (6.1)
- Third in rush EPA (0.087)
- Seventh in success rate (45.6%)
So what does this mean? Well, they’re probably not as good as their overall rankings suggest, but they are trending in a positive direction. I would probably call this a borderline top-10 rushing attack with the most explosive potential in football.
I’m not so sure the Rams run defense is as good as the DVOA suggests. Their chart paints the picture of a more average run defense that has just been “okay” lately. Granted, they have held opponents below 90 rushing yards in half of their games, but they’ve also allowed over 120 three times in their past four games. For the season, they rank:
- Sixth in yards per carry (3.9)
- Third in rush EPA (-0.135%)
- Sixth in success rate (37.7%)
Much like their pass defense, the key is not allowing explosive plays on the ground. They’ve only allowed 29 rushes of 10+ yards (t-sixth) and they’re the only team in football who has not allowed a rush of 30+ yards. The longest run they’ve allowed from a running backs is 25 yards.
But, again, you can beat this run defense with the “death by 100 paper cuts” strategy. Despite ranking first in PFF run defense grade and second in run-stop win rate, their defensive line ranks 19th in adjusted line yards (4.38)—suggesting backs are getting to the second level often, but just not getting beyond that. In other words, this could be a game to lean on David Montgomery.
Offering a tad more optimism is recent trends. Over the last four weeks (without Lake in three of those games), the Rams run defense just ranks:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.0)
- 15th in rush EPA (-0.091%)
- 10th in success rate (37.3%)
Player to watch: Poona Ford. The Rams’ nose tackle has been huge in transforming that unit. Ford ranks third among all interior defenders in overall PFF grade (85.3), second in run defense grade (87.0), and third in run stop percentage (13.8).
Advantage: Rams +1. This could be the most important matchup in the game, and I unfortunately have to give the edge to Los Angeles. Detroit’s run game has lived and died by the big play, and the Rams just don’t give up those explosives on the ground. If Detroit showed any sort of between-the-tackles consistency with Montgomery this year, this would be the week to exploit that, but the Lions haven’t had Montgomery control the pace of the game in quite some time.
Rams pass offense (1st) vs. Lions pass defense (6th)
Hoo boy. This Rams pass offense is ROLLING. They’ve only been held below the defense’s passer rating a single time—and just barely—in their outlier loss to the Panthers two weeks ago. By just about every metric, this is a well-oiled machine and a top-five unit in the NFL. The Rams’ pass offense ranks:
- First in passer rating (112.9)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (7.7)
- Fourth in dropback EPA (0.231)
- First in success rate (54.4%)
Most concerning when it comes to this matchup is the Rams’ ability to push the ball downfield—something the Lions have really struggled to defend. On passes of at least 20 air yards, the Rams rank third in yards per game, third in EPA/pass, second in touchdowns, and they are tied for third with the most passing plays of 30+ yards.
Pass protection has been great, as well. They’re tied for the fewest sacks allowed this season (17), and have the second-lowest pressure percentage allowed (26.3%). They also rank seventh in ESPN’s pass block win rate, but oddly 24th in PFF pass blocking grade.
It’s worth noting, though, that if you can get pressure on Matthew Stafford, it will be disruptive. LA ranks just 15th in EPA/pass when under pressure. Stafford is not escaping pressure much this year (-10 rushing yards on the season), and would much rather just turf the ball than take a sack. But don’t necessarily take that as an invitation to blitz. The Rams rank fifth in EPA/pass against the blitz because they’re only allowing a 31.7% pressure rate against the blitz (third).
Both the chart and the eye test do not match the Lions’ top-10 DVOA rating in pass defense. They’ve had a struggle all year to marry their pass rush with their coverage. Both units have faltered at times—with pressure being far too inconsistent and coverage giving up far too many big plays. For the season, the Lions’ pass defense ranks:
- 19th in passer rating (93.3)
- 26th in yards per attempt (7.3)
- 17th in dropback EPA (0.063)
- Eighth in success rate (44.0%)
We don’t need to go over it a million times, but just as a quick reminder, the reason for high success rate but low everything else is because of Detroit’s terribly-high rate of explosive plays allowed. They have allowed five more 30+ yard passing plays (26) than any other team in football. The league average is about half of that.
Despite a promising showing last week, and a defense that somehow ranks fifth in sacks (37) and seventh in sack rate (7.5%), pass rush has ultimately been the biggest problem. Detroit’s 2.88 average seconds until pressure is the second-longest time in football, and that leaves the Lions’ man-heavy secondary out to dry.
Player to watch: Puka Nacua. For my own mental health, I avoided talking about the Rams’ incredible receiving duo. Nacua is arguably the best receiver in football. He’s second in yards, but what sets him above his peers is his ability to make tight-window catches. His 11.9% catch rate over expected is second in the league (min. 50 targets) and his 79.3% contested catch rate is otherworldly.
Advantage: Rams +3. I don’t see a way in which the Lions can stop this passing attack. The pass protection is too good, their receivers are too talented—even with Detroit’s relatively sticky coverage—and the one thing that could swing this matchup in Detroit’s favor, turnovers (Lions t-10th in INTs), is something Stafford has avoided nearly all year. Good luck, Kelvin Sheppard.
Rams run offense (1st) vs. Lions run defense (8th)
The Rams’ rushing attack got off to a slow start, but it’s been the best unit in football out of their bye in Week 8. Let’s compare their season-long stats to just their past six games out of the bye:
- Ninth in yards per carry (4.7)
- Second in rush EPA (0.038)
- First in success rate (51.4%)
- Fourth in yards per carry (5.2)
- First in rush EPA (0.200)
- First in success rate (55.8%)
While their tandem backfield of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum deserve some credit, the offensive line is doing some heavy lifting here. Every single member of that front seven ranks top-10 in PFF run blocking compared to their position.
Their team run blocking grade of 89.4 is nearly 10 points better than any other team, they rank first in adjusted line yards, and fourth in ESPN’s run block win rate.
The Lions’ run defense remains quite stout, and last week’s performance may have been one of their best. Despite devoting more resources to their pass rush, they were still able to hold the Cowboys well below their rushing averages. While they may be giving up more yards than an elite defense, the yards per carry allowed column suggests their efficiency remains top-10. For the season, the Lions rank:
- Seventh in yards per carry (3.9)
- 11th in rush EPA (-0.106)
- Ninth in success rate (38.8%)
And as we’ve talked about a couple times on the website this week, the Lions may be uniquely structured to battle the Rams’ rushing attack. Out of the bye week, the Rams have featured a ton of 13 personnel sets, hoping to get their opponents into base defense—something most teams are uncomfortable with doing. However, the Lions live in base more than any other team, and should be prepared to stop both the pass and run from that formation.
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. Your Jack Campbell stats of the week: Among linebackers, he ranks first in PFF run defense grade (93.0), first in run stops (34), and first in run stop percentage (11.0%).
Advantage: Rams +1. I think the edge here is very small, but we’re talking about arguably the No. 1 rushing attack in football vs. a top-10 run defense.
On Paper took yet another L last week, and one of the worst ones of the year. It appears I severely overestimated the Cowboys’ defensive turnaround—something I openly grappled with in the column. That said, the confidence in Detroit’s offensive line has taken a rise after that performance. Same could be said for the defensive front—which, with a little more emphasis, was able to generate a difference-making amount of pressure. To be able to do that while also maintaining a strong run defense warrants a little more faith in the defensive philosophy, although this week is an even bigger test. And to be fair to myself, I did not expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to play in that game.
In the comment section AlwaysAround’s positivity led him to the promised land with a 44-24 Lions prediction—just six points away from the actual score. Here’s something to wear for this Sunday’s game. I always wondered why the reverse was never made:
The Rams come out with a significant +5 advantage, mostly generated by their impressive offense. Quite frankly, I don’t have a lot of faith in Detroit slowing the Rams’ attack, so it will be on the Lions’ offense to keep pace. Unfortunately, I don’t love either matchup when the Lions have the ball. Detroit has really struggled against teams that can pressure with their front four, and the fact that the Rams don’t allow explosive plays on the ground is extremely troubling in this matchup. And if the Lions get behind in this game, the Rams are the kind of team that closes the door quickly.
Detroit’s best hope is to somehow generate pressure and force Stafford into some unlikely turnovers. Without that, I’m not sure I see a realistic path to victory for the Lions. Rams 34, Lions 21.
