The playoffs are around the corner, and the picture is starting to focus.
In the AFC, the Broncos and Patriots can both clinch postseason berths with victories. But neither will come easy, as both are home underdogs this week to the Packers and Bills, respectively. Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Rams can also get into the dance by winning at home, but they enter the game as a six-point favorite over the Lions.
Of the Week 15 schedule, those three games all make our preview, while two others squeezed their way in with the desperate Chiefs hosting the Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium, and the equally pressing Ravens taking on the Bengals in Cincinnati.
And we start in the Queen City, where the Bengals try to keep Baltimore from getting to the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
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Spread: Ravens -2.5
Key matchup: Baltimore’s run game vs. Cincinnati’s defense
Key stat: The Bengals rank 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.2).
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Ravens are going to find their way to the playoffs, they’ll need to run there.
Baltimore has struggled to find its passing attack, even with Lamar Jackson back over the last month from his hamstring injury. Baltimore ranks 26th in EPA per pass (-0.19) and 27th in passing yards per game (182.2). However, even with Jackson only pacing for 401 rushing yards, the Ravens can gash teams on the ground, tied for second with 5.0 yards per carry. Derrick Henry is leading the way with 1,025 yards and 10 touchdowns along with 4.6 YPC.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are an absolute sieve against the run. Cincinnati is permitting 5.2 yards per carry, second-worst in football to the Giants. The Bengals also rank last in rushing yards allowed (2,022), giving Henry and Jackson lanes for days.
In their first meeting this season, on Thanksgiving night, Cincinnati won 32–14 thanks to five takeaways. In that game, Baltimore largely played from behind and still rushed for 123 yards on 5.6 YPC, scoring two touchdowns. If the Ravens can protect the ball this time around and limit the Bengals’ explosive passing game featuring Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, they could position themselves well. Still, that’s not an easy feat.
Verdict: Cincinnati 30, Baltimore 26
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Key matchup: Kansas City’s pass rush vs. Los Angeles’s offensive line
Key stat: The Chiefs only hit Justin Herbert four times in Week 1.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs have been a confounding disaster. After starting 0–2, they got healthier with Rashee Rice returning from suspension and Xavier Worthy fighting through a torn labrum. Suddenly, Kansas City was 5–3 and poised to make a run. Since then, the Chiefs are 1–4 and on life support in the AFC playoff picture.
Conversely, the Chargers have fought through the losses of star tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to sport a 9–4 mark, and could essentially eliminate the Chiefs from playoff contention by completing a season sweep.
To do it, Los Angeles will need to protect Justin Herbert. Last week, Herbert was sacked seven times in an overtime victory over the Eagles, something that was aided by five takeaways. Since it’s unlikely Patrick Mahomes will turn the ball over five times, the Chargers have to keep Kansas City’s pass rush at bay.
The good news for the Bolts? The Chiefs haven’t rushed the passer well at all. They rank 25th with 25 sacks on the year. And while their pressure rate of 35.2% is good enough for 13th in the NFL, they also blitz third-most at 33.2% of dropbacks. In their Week 1 meeting, Kansas City only hit Herbert four times. If history repeats itself, the Chiefs will be finished by sundown.
Verdict: Los Angeles 23, Kansas City 20
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to keep their incredibly slim playoff chances alive against the Chargers. / Amy Kontras-Imagn Images
Spread: Bills -1.5
Key matchup: James Cook vs. New England’s front seven
Key stat: Cook is second in the NFL with 1,308 rushing yards.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If the Bills are going to split the season series and keep faint hope alive for an AFC East title, they’ll need James Cook to run wild.
In the first meeting between these two teams, the Bills lost 23–20 in Week 5 largely because they committed three turnovers and 11 penalties. On that night, Cook rushed for 49 yards and 3.3 yards per carry, kept in check by a swarming New England defense that ranks ninth-best in EPA per rush against (-0.08).
The Bills lead the league at 5.1 YPC with both Cook and reigning MVP Josh Allen being the best tandem in football. Allen has been excellent on the ground, rushing for 487 yards and 12 touchdowns, including 78 yards and a touchdown in last weekend’s win over the Bengals.
If Buffalo can run the ball, it’ll be in terrific shape. But if the Patriots, off their bye week, can bottle up Cook once more and limit Allen, they’ll be division champion.
Verdict: New England 27, Buffalo 22
Spread: Packers -2.5
Key matchup: Denver’s passing game vs. Green Bay’s secondary
Key stat: The Packers rank third-best in YAC allowed (1,192).
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Broncos don’t throw the ball downfield well. In fact, when they attempt it, it’s to the advantage of the defense.
Despite being 11–2 and in first place in the AFC, Denver’s passing attack has gone in fits and starts. Quarterback Bo Nix is the reason why, having completed just 16-of-51 attempts over 20 air yards. To make up for this, coach Sean Payton and Nix rely on a short passing game that provides yards after the catch. Through 13 games, the Broncos rank sixth in that category with 1,674 yards.
Against the Packers, the quick passing game will be key. Green Bay has Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary tearing off the edges with 20 sacks and 42 quarterback hits between them. For Nix, unloading the ball will be a consistent theme throughout. However, the Packers have been excellent at limiting yards after the catch, ranking third with 1,192 yards.
For the Broncos to beat the Packers and eventually beat some of the top contenders in the playoffs, they’ll need to dominate in this area or discover their deep ball.
Verdict: Green Bay 21, Denver 17
Spread: Rams -6
Key matchup: Rams’ receivers vs. Lions’ secondary
Key stat: Only the Eagles and Cowboys have a pair of receivers with more yards.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Entering Week 14, the Lions have a 39% chance of going to the playoffs. If they beat the Rams, those odds increase to 60%; if they lose, they drop to 30%.
For Detroit to find its way into the postseason, the Lions have to find a way to limit Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. Between Adams and Nacua, the combo has racked up 1,904 receiving yards. Only the Eagles and Cowboys have a duo more prolific. Against the Lions, they face a defense ranking 17th in EPA per pass against (-0.04).
Unfortunately for Detroit, it’s not only middling against the pass but now dealing with the season-ending loss of Pro Bowl defensive back Brian Branch with a torn Achilles. Without Branch and second-year corner Terrion Arnold also out for the year with a shoulder injury, the Lions must figure out how to contain one of the league’s most prolific attacks.
Verdict: Los Angeles 30, Detroit 27
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