After going 0-3 on my bold predictions in Week 13 and bringing my season ledger to an ugly 11-28 (.282), I bounced back in Week 14. I nearly swept the three picks, but Colston Loveland finished as the TE9 in half-PPR formats after I declared he’d finish as the TE8 or better.
Nevertheless, Patrick Mahomes finished outside of the top 12 quarterbacks, and John Metchie outscored Adonai Mitchell in half-PPR leagues, giving me two hits on last week’s bold predictions. I’m now 13-29 (.310) on bold predictions this season and ready to build on last week’s rock-solid showing.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
Medium
Terry McLaurin Will Finish as a Top-12 WR in Half-PPR
Terry McLaurin has played quite well in Marcus Mariota‘s starts, despite limited playing time. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Washington’s No. 1 wideout has put up the following stats in three games in Mariota’s starts:
- 52.2% route participation rate
- 14.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 39.9% air yards share
- 21.8% target share
- 0.37 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 24.7% first-read rate
- 7.3 targets per game
- 4.3 receptions per game
- 74.7 receiving yards per game
- 3.80 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 2 touchdown receptions
- 5 end-zone targets
- 13.6 half-PPR points per game
- 16.4 expected half-PPR points per game
McLaurin is the WR17 in half-PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR). However, he should perform as a top-12 receiver in a juicy matchup. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most half-PPR points per game (30.6) to wide receivers this year. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most half-PPR points per game (31.3) to wideouts since Week 10.
Hot
RJ Harvey Will Score at Least 15 Half-PPR points
Our projection tool projects RJ Harvey to score 12 half-PPR points against the Packers this week, but I’m more bullish and believe he’ll score at least 15 points. J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury in Week 10, and in three subsequent contests, Harvey has rattled off snap shares of 61%, 47% and a season-high 68% in Week 14.
In those three games, Harvey has handled 41 of Denver’s backfield’s 64 rush attempts (64.1%), 80% of the team’s rush attempts inside the 5-yard line and paced the backfield in route participation rate (34.8%). Furthermore, Harvey’s route participation rate was 48.8% last week, versus 9.3% for Tyler Badie and 4.7% for Jaleel McLaughlin.
Harvey getting the high-value touches inside the 5-yard line and leading the way in route participation in the backfield is ideal for his fantasy-scoring potential. In those three contests, Harvey has averaged 46.7 rushing yards per game, fiur receptions per game and 24 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns, resulting in 15.1 half-PPR points per game and 16.2 expected half-PPR points per game.
A matchup against the Packers shouldn’t diminish fantasy gamers’ optimism. Green Bay has allowed the 16th-most half-PPR points per game (20.2) to running backs since Week 10. As a result, I expect Harvey to reach at least 15 half-PPR points for the third consecutive week.
Atomic
Zach Charbonnet Will Outscore Kenneth Walker in Half-PPR
Kenneth Walker is the RB21 in ECR, and Zach Charbonnet is the RB40. Yet, Charbonnet has outscored Walker in the previous two weeks, three out of five games since Seattle’s Week 8 bye and in four of Seattle’s last seven contests.
Since Week 10, Walker has recorded 64 carries, 58 rushing yards per game, 4.53 yards per carry, 50% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line, one rushing touchdown, a 45.3% success rate and a 50% stuff rate.
Comparatively, Charbonnet has recorded 52 carries, 50.6 rushing yards per game, 4.87 yards per carry, 50% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line, three rushing touchdowns, a 51.9% success rate and 42.3% stuff rate.
Charbonnet has been a more efficient and effective runner than Walker. Charbonnet’s superiority at splashing paydirt is the most significant factor for why he’ll outscore Walker this week. The Colts have allowed 108.8 rushing yards per game and 3.82 yards per carry to running backs in their last four games, but they’ve also surrendered six rushing touchdowns.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
