Video analysis of the Packers’ win over Bears for first in NFC North
Dominique Yates is joined by Pete Dougherty to recap the Green Bay Packers’ 28-21 win over the Chicago Bears.
The Green Bay Packers have taken control of the NFC North and, for the moment, have the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs with four games to play. Is their playoff spot safe? The New York Times playoff simulator projects that … well, yes, it seems pretty safe. Here’s how it looks.
What are the odds the Packers make the playoffs?
The New York Times puts those odds at 95%.
If Green Bay loses a difficult road test to the Broncos next week, the percentage chance drops, but only to 92% in a vacuum (without any other outcomes factored in). A victory would put odds at near-certainty level, greater than 99%.
Could the Packers actually clinch a playoff spot next week?
Not quite yet. A win would put the Packers at 10-3-1 and, even if the Seahawks, 49ers, Bears, Cowboys and Lions (facing the Rams) all lost next week, there remains a scenario where the Packers would miss out on a playoff berth.
The Packers could still finish 10-6-1. One of the Buccaneers and Panthers would have to pick up a seventh loss because of head-to-head meetings, meaning one would win the South (with a minimum of six losses) and one would be behind the Packers, so those teams wouldn’t matter in the wild-card pursuit if the Packers beat the Broncos.
The Lions could finish 3-0 to end up at 11-6; the Bears would lose once to the Lions in that case but still finish 11-6, as well, meaning one would get the division and one would get a wild-card berth. That leaves two wild-card spots for the Packers to attain.
The Rams would improve to 11-3 after a win next week over the Lions and then could finish no worse than 11-6. The Seahawks could beat the Rams head-to-head in Week 16 and finish no worse than 11-6. Even with a baked-in loss to the Bears in Week 17, the 49ers could beat Indianapolis in Week 16 and Seattle in Week 18 to finish 11-6. That’s enough teams finishing ahead of Green Bay to keep the Packers out.
The Cowboys wouldn’t be able to catch Green Bay with a Packers win and Cowboys loss next week.
What are the Packers chances of winning the No. 1 seed?
The Packers are squarely in the hunt for the top overall seed in the NFC.
The New York Times currently gives Green Bay a 10% chance of snagging that spot and the first-round bye that comes with it. Part of the problem is that the Rams and Seahawks face off once more, so one of those teams is guaranteed to have another win (or a tie) by season’s end, and the Packers need both to lose at least once.
If the Packers beat Denver, their chances of getting the No. 1 seed improve to 18%.
If the Seahawks and Rams both lose next week to the Colts and Lions, respectively, the Packers move into the No. 1 spot but their chances of keeping it are just 38%.
Do the Packers have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL?
For the past few weeks, the Packers have ranked at or near the top of toughest remaining NFL schedule (by opponent winning percentage), but now that the Packers are cleared of the 9-win Bears, it’s a little bit friendlier.
The Packers are still tied for second with the Lions (.596) for the toughest remaining schedule in the NFC, behind Seattle (second overall, .654). The Colts (.692) have the toughest overall in the NFL.
Chicago (.567) is right behind the Lions and Packers. San Francisco (.558) is 12th. The Rams, current holders of the top spot in the NFC, are 19th (.481), with seemingly easy games ahead against the Falcons and Cardinals.
The Seahawks and 49ers both face the Colts, but that team has lost three straight games and just lost quarterback Daniel Jones to serious injury.
What is the Packers remaining schedule?
The Packers play at Denver (11-2), at Chicago (9-4), vs. Baltimore (6-7) and at Minnesota (5-8).
What is the Bears remaining schedule?
Chicago finishes with three home games out of four contests closing the year vs. Cleveland (3-10), vs. Green Bay (9-3-1), at San Francisco (9-4) and vs. Detroit (8-5).
What is the Lions remaining schedule?
Like the Packers, the Lions have only one home game remaining. They finish at Los Angeles (10-3), vs. Pittsburgh (7-6), at Minnesota (5-8) and at Chicago (9-4).
What are the remaining schedules for the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers?
- Los Angeles: vs. Detroit (8-5), at Seattle (10-3), at Atlanta (4-9), vs. Arizona (3-10)
- Seattle: vs. Indianapolis (8-5), vs. Los Angeles (10-3), at Carolina (7-6), at San Francisco (9-4)
- San Francisco: vs. Tennessee (2-11), at Indianapolis (8-5), vs. Chicago (9-4), vs. Seattle (10-3)
Are the Packers cheering for the Rams or the Lions next week?
If Detroit wins, it gives the Packers a slight bump in their pursuit of the No. 1 seed. If the Rams win, it increases the chances slightly that the Packers will make the playoffs at all. If you’re comfortable in the latter, then you probably want the former. If you’d rather just see the Packers get into the dance and worry about seeds another time, then you probably want the Rams to win.
What happens if the Packers lose to the Broncos next week?
Green Bay has a tall order going on the road to face the top team in the AFC. With a loss, the New York Times predicts the Packers’ chances of getting the No. 1 overall seed fall to 2%, but they’d still have a 92% chance of making the playoffs.
Even if everything goes wrong next week: Green Bay loses, Chicago wins, the Seahawks win, the 49ers win and Detroit beats the Rams, even the Cowboys win … the Packers chance of making the playoffs is still roughly 82% heading into Week 16, and still 2% of getting the No. 1 seed. If the Rams beat the Lions with everything else happening as mentioned, the No. 1 seed is probably gone, but the chance of making the playoffs remains at 93%.
