The NFC West is still on top of the league in the DVOA ratings after huge wins by both Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams. In particular, the Rams’ 45-17 win over Arizona brought them closer to the Seahawks. In regular DVOA, the two teams are separated by less than 1.0%. In weighted DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games, the Rams are now on top and the two teams are also separated by less than 1.0%.
Both the Seahawks and the Rams have risen above 40% which puts them in rare company among the best teams in DVOA history. It’s very strange — this is the third straight year we’ve had teams in the regular season challenging the best teams that DVOA has ever measured. It didn’t happen for years before 2023, and then suddenly it is happening each year. Here’s the table showing where the Seahawks and Rams rank among teams with 13 games played since 1978.
Best Total DVOA Through 13 Games, 1978-2025
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
2007
NE
13-0
59.2%
1991
WAS
12-1
50.5%
1985
CHI
12-1
47.1%
1998
DEN
13-0
46.0%
2023
SF
10-3
45.3%
2012
NE
10-3
42.7%
1995
DAL
10-3
42.3%
2025
SEA
10-3
42.0%
1995
SF
9-4
41.6%
2025
LAR
10-3
41.3%
2004
NE
12-1
40.6%
1987
SF*
10-2
40.5%
2024
DET
12-1
40.0%
*12 games, not including strikebreaker games
Will the Rams or Seahawks do better in the playoffs than the Ravens of the past two seasons, or the 2023 49ers or 2024 Lions? That remains to be seen.
The Detroit Lions move back into third place with their 44-30 win over Dallas last Thursday night. The Indianapolis Colts are down to fourth and of course they’re now in big trouble at the quarterback position, stuck either with rookie sixth-round pick Riley Leonard or a 44-year-old Philip Rivers. Green Bay stays fifth with Kansas City and Houston now essentially tied for sixth. Denver is down a spot to eighth, Jacksonville up three spots to ninth, and the Bills down a spot to 10th.
We’re starting to see some more significant differences between regular DVOA and weighted DVOA as the first month of the season moves more into the rearview mirror. The New England Patriots, for example, go from 0.4% (14th) to 4.1% (13th) in weighted DVOA. The Chicago Bears go from -5.8% (20th) to -3.1% (18th). The Kansas City Chiefs drop from sixth to ninth in weighted DVOA. And here’s a really surprising one: the Miami Dolphins go from -5.1% (18th) to 2.3% (15th) in weighted DVOA. The Dolphins have climbed back into the playoff race with five wins in their last six games after a 1-6 start.
You can also see the difference between some teams when you compare the early season to recent weeks. The Philadelphia Eagles are a very good example, with a big split when they had the bye week in Week 9.
- On offense, the Eagles have gone from 10.9% DVOA (ninth) in Weeks 1-8 to -13.9% DVOA (26th) in Weeks 10-14.
- But on defense, the Eagles have gone from 0.0% DVOA (15th) in Weeks 1-8 to -18.2% DVOA (fourth) in Weeks 10-14.
The Cincinnati Bengals have also been improving on defense over the last couple weeks, but they’re still on the list of the worst defenses ever measured by DVOA. They’re just not as close to the bottom.
Worst Defensive DVOA Through 13 Games, 1978-2025
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
1981
BALC
1-12
25.3%
1979
SF
1-12
25.2%
1983
HOIL
1-12
23.3%
2013
SD
6-7
23.0%
2001
ARI
5-8
23.0%
2019
MIA
3-10
23.0%
1986
TB
2-11
22.5%
2025
CIN
4-9
22.5%
1999
CLE
2-11
21.7%
2000
ARI
3-10
21.6%
1987
MIA*
7-5
20.9%
2004
KC
5-8
20.8%
2016
CLE
0-13
20.8%
*12 games, not including strikebreaker games
More impressive, especially considering how bad the team is on offense and defense, the New York Jets have now climbed to be the top special teams unit ever tracked by DVOA through 13 games. Note that when I ran a similar table last week, I somehow missed the 1987 Saints, who have the highest special teams DVOA ever but in a 12-game season. So the Jets are now listed below the Saints, but they have a shot at surpassing them even with a 17-game schedule.
Best Special Teams DVOA Through 13 Games, 1978-2025
YEAR
TEAM
W-L
DVOA
1987
NO*
10-2
12.8%
2025
NYJ
3-10
12.3%
2006
CHI
11-2
11.2%
2011
CHI
7-6
10.8%
1994
CLE1
9-4
10.7%
1986
NO
6-7
10.6%
2001
PHI
9-4
10.6%
1978
WAS
8-5
10.6%
1997
DAL
6-7
10.2%
2007
CHI
5-8
10.1%
1985
LARM
9-4
9.9%
2000
MIA
10-3
9.8%
*12 games, not including strikebreaker games
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA ratings through 14 weeks of 2025. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.
RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK
1
SEA
42.0%
1
42.1%
2
10-3
12.2%
8
-21.4%
1
8.4%
2
2
LAR
41.3%
2
42.7%
1
10-3
28.9%
1
-14.7%
3
-2.3%
24
3
DET
30.1%
4
29.2%
3
8-5
15.9%
5
-10.9%
5
3.3%
7
4
IND
27.7%
3
23.8%
4
8-5
20.9%
2
-2.9%
14
3.9%
5
5
GB
21.1%
5
22.1%
5
9-3-1
17.0%
3
-5.4%
11
-1.3%
19
6
KC
14.2%
6
11.0%
9
6-7
16.6%
4
-0.1%
17
-2.5%
26
7
HOU
14.2%
8
15.1%
7
8-5
-5.6%
25
-19.5%
2
0.3%
18
8
DEN
13.1%
7
15.5%
6
11-2
1.6%
13
-10.5%
6
1.1%
16
9
JAX
10.5%
12
12.5%
8
9-4
-1.5%
17
-7.5%
7
4.5%
3
10
BUF
9.5%
9
9.9%
11
9-4
13.3%
7
4.1%
22
0.3%
17
11
SF
8.4%
10
10.8%
10
9-4
13.5%
6
7.1%
24
1.9%
12
12
PHI
6.4%
11
6.1%
12
8-5
1.2%
14
-7.5%
8
-2.3%
23
13
PIT
2.6%
13
2.5%
14
7-6
-2.0%
19
-3.4%
12
1.2%
14
14
NE
0.4%
14
4.1%
13
11-2
7.6%
10
8.4%
25
1.2%
15
15
LAC
0.3%
17
0.9%
16
9-4
-3.1%
21
-5.9%
10
-2.5%
25
16
BAL
-0.8%
18
-0.5%
17
6-7
0.5%
15
3.6%
21
2.3%
11
RK
TEAM
TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RK
W-L
OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RK
17
TB
-2.6%
15
-3.9%
19
7-6
-1.5%
16
-3.1%
13
-4.2%
27
18
MIA
-5.1%
23
2.3%
15
6-7
-5.2%
24
2.6%
20
2.7%
10
19
DAL
-5.2%
16
-5.0%
20
6-6-1
10.8%
9
17.5%
31
1.5%
13
20
CHI
-5.8%
19
-3.1%
18
9-4
4.6%
11
8.6%
26
-1.7%
21
21
ATL
-9.0%
21
-11.4%
22
4-9
-2.6%
20
-1.3%
15
-7.7%
30
22
ARI
-10.7%
20
-13.7%
24
3-10
-4.5%
22
0.5%
18
-5.7%
29
23
MIN
-10.9%
27
-11.1%
21
5-8
-20.8%
29
-7.1%
9
2.8%
9
24
WAS
-12.6%
22
-19.7%
27
3-10
-4.5%
23
11.6%
27
3.5%
6
25
CAR
-15.5%
25
-15.5%
26
7-6
-7.8%
26
6.3%
23
-1.3%
20
26
NYG
-15.6%
24
-14.9%
25
2-11
-1.6%
18
12.2%
29
-1.8%
22
27
CIN
-16.6%
28
-13.2%
23
4-9
2.8%
12
22.5%
32
3.1%
8
28
NYJ
-23.6%
26
-23.8%
29
3-10
-19.7%
28
16.2%
30
12.3%
1
29
NO
-25.3%
30
-22.0%
28
3-10
-17.8%
27
-0.3%
16
-7.9%
31
30
CLE
-27.4%
29
-29.3%
30
3-10
-29.3%
32
-13.3%
4
-11.5%
32
31
LV
-32.3%
31
-33.6%
32
2-11
-24.8%
31
2.1%
19
-5.4%
28
32
TEN
-32.5%
32
-30.6%
31
2-11
-24.5%
30
11.9%
28
3.9%
4
