New England’s adjustment to have the post-safety take the back might’ve been a response to Buffalo scoring on mesh earlier in the game. On James Cook’s first touchdown, the Bills ran mesh, and the Pats tried to track Cooks with LB Christian Elliss covering the flat from the middle of the field, a tough assignment to get to the edge before Cook did.
Despite playing their highest single-game man coverage rate of the year (51.5%), there weren’t enough late-down answers vs. a Bills offense that was going to churn out rushing yards and land some punches – a lack of turnovers and late-down stops decided the game.
4. Kickoff Coverage Issues Loom Large in a One-Score Loss to the Bills
Usually, we save the special teams notes for last. However, we’re moving it up because it was a huge reason why the Bills won. As for their kickoff coverage, the Patriots surrendered returns of 58 and 45 yards to Bills RB Ray Davis, and then allowed a 38-yard return that was made worse by a 15-yard penalty (53-yard net). Davis’s returns set up the Bills in Patriots territory on their first two scoring drives, where they needed 42 and 45 yards to score touchdowns. On the flip side, WR Kyle Williams had a 60-yard return wiped out by a holding call. In a big game like this, the field position battle is critical, and the Bills won it as well.
5. Patriots Run Defense Continues to Slump in Sunday’s Game
As mentioned, the Bills have one of the league’s best rushing attacks, so we didn’t come into this one expecting the Patriots to shut down Cook and company. However, with injuries catching up to them, New England hasn’t defended the run well of late. On Sunday, Cook racked up 107 rushing yards (101 yards after contact) on 22 carries and two touchdowns, with Buffalo posting a 48% rushing success rate (74th percentile). Since Week 10, New England is last in rush success rate allowed (53.3%).
Obviously, the hope is that the Patriots will get a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back for the stretch run, with Williams eligible to return in Week 17 vs. the Jets. With those two healthy, the Pats defense was fifth in the NFL in rush success allowed (36.2%). However, the personnel that played the Bills this week will mostly be the same group trying to stop Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry next week in Baltimore.
6. Patriots Offensive Line Holds Bills Defense to 17.2% Pressure Rate in Loss
On Sunday, the Patriots started their fourth different offensive line combination of the season, with rookie Jared Wilson back at left guard following a one-game absence, playing next to backup LT Vederian Lowe. Although there was one nitpick, the Pats O-Line held Buffalo to a 17.2% pressure rate and helped generate a 59% rushing success rate – pretty good. Lowe only surrendered two total pressures, while Wilson allowed one pressure in his return.
However, the lone blemish was that they called a drive with back-to-back penalties, a false start by Lowe, and a hold on RG Mike Onwenu. The Pats drove into Buffalo territory late in the third quarter with some positive plays, including a 16-yard completion to WR Stefon Diggs on third down, but the two flags were drive-killers, leading to a Maye arm punt on a 3rd-and-25. Overall, it was a solid performance for the offensive line, which didn’t come up as a negative much in Sunday’s game, but Maye had the offense moving while protecting a 24-21 lead.
7. Henderson and Stevenson Used in Two-Back Sets, and More on the Rookie RB
Taking a look at the backfield snaps, RB Rhamondre Stevenson technically out-snapped Henderson, with Stevenson getting 34 snaps to Henderson’s 25 plays. However, those two were on the field together for eight plays, which skews the numbers a bit. Henderson is clearly the team’s best back, but the Patriots are continuing to pick their spots with their rookie, while Stevenson is getting a lot of his work on third down because of his skills in pass protection.
Along with his 65-yard touchdown that we already discussed, Henderson had another 50-plus yard touchdown run in the first half, showing off his game-breaking speed numerous times.
