The 2026 NFL quarterback carousel could turn into total pandemonium, as rebuilding teams with pricy veterans could be tempted to lean into hard resets that could flood the market with (somewhat) proven commodities.
It might also be a dud.
Whichever way this offseason unfolds, QB-needy teams have to get creative to fill the void. The draft class has intriguing prospects, but team executives haven’t identified anyone as a sure thing.
And yet, the draft class somehow yields more optimism than the most underwhelming crop of free agents in recent memory. So, for teams that feel reluctant to roll the dice in the draft or overspend for a flawed free agent, they’ll have to work the trade market to satisfy their needs.
Let’s run through the offseason’s main characters, from the quarterbacks up for grabs to the teams that figure to set the pace.
Free agents
Daniel Jones
The Indianapolis Colts quarterback was thriving until he was slowed in November by a fibula injury, which preceded a torn Achilles. Jones, who turns 29 in May, revived a career that was in the balance before joining the Colts, who have been so desperate to find a quarterback since Philip Rivers’ retirement in 2021 that they actually brought Rivers back this month.
Anyway, Jones and the Colts are perfect for one another. If he’s not ready for the start of the 2026 season, the Colts still have 2023 first-rounder Anthony Richardson under contract, or they could add an affordable veteran. There will be plenty of those.
Jones’ projected value could be in the neighborhood of three years and $100 million, which is similar to recent deals for Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. But there aren’t any great salary comps because of Jones’ Achilles injury. Kirk Cousins landed a four-year, $180 million pact in 2024 while rehabbing a torn Achilles, but he was seven years older and more accomplished than Jones. It’s also safe to say the Falcons wouldn’t have made that deal with the benefit of hindsight.
The Colts should be considered the favorites to keep Jones, but don’t rule out a wild card like the Minnesota Vikings or Pittsburgh Steelers if they view him as an upgrade.
Aaron Rodgers
Speaking of the Steelers, let’s not pretend to know what Rodgers is thinking.
Retiring, sticking with Pittsburgh, exploring greener pastures — it’s probably all on the table. And for the 42-year-old Rodgers, who is making about $14 million this season, he doesn’t appear to have much interest in a bidding war at this point in his career.
If Rodgers does continue playing, it feels like a stretch to think he’d want to start over with a new organization. And since the Steelers don’t have a starter in waiting, they’d probably be thrilled if Rodgers returned.
But Rodgers and the Vikings were flirting from across the room last offseason, so there could be some consideration to rekindling those flames, especially if the Vikings want to pause or even halt the J.J. McCarthy experiment.
Rodgers’ performance is in steep decline. He won’t carry anyone to the playoffs, but he is still capable of being a valuable contributor on a well-constructed roster. Rodgers should have suitors if he wants to entertain them.
Under contract … for now
Mac Jones
Jones is an imperfect fit in this category, as you’ll soon understand. But Jones is indeed under contract for 2026, and the 2021 first-round pick played very well in eight starts for the San Francisco 49ers in relief of starter Brock Purdy. In fact, Jones would have been on pace for the best statistical season of his career if he started 17 games.
Jones was similarly effective as a rookie with the New England Patriots before Bill Belichick torpedoed his development plan. Jones, 27, was competitive, if ineffective, over seven starts for a bad Jacksonville Jaguars team in 2024, but things seem to click this season with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.
The Niners owe Jones $3.25 million in 2026, and Purdy has dealt with injuries in all four years of his career. Shanahan has been fond of Jones since the draft process, just watched him succeed in his offense and has him under control at a bargain-bin rate. Why in the world would he surrender Jones, considering all the reasons to keep him?
Maybe the 49ers would be enticed by a package centered around a second-round pick, but even that doesn’t feel like enough to relinquish Jones. Conversely, a first-round offer feels incredibly aggressive for an acquiring team, which makes things a bit tricky.
Purdy is on the books for about $47 million guaranteed in 2026 but just $11.9 million in 2027. The Niners’ best strategy may be to keep Jones for another season and evaluate which QB is worth keeping from there.
But if they’re motivated sellers with uber long-term confidence in Purdy, the Niners should have an easy time moving Jones, and might even be able to start a bidding war for his services.
Kyler Murray
The Arizona Cardinals shut down Murray in rather precarious fashion this season, hinting at his impending return from injury in October before placing him on IR days later — all while backup Jacoby Brissett sparked the offense with his play.
Murray is owed $36.8 million guaranteed in 2026. General manager Monti Ossenfort has kept the Cardinals’ books in a good spot since his arrival in 2023, so they could withstand a temporary hit with Murray if necessary.
Team executives around the league are skeptical Murray would fetch much, if anything, in an offseason trade. Maybe the dynamic changes due to a lack of other options. He doesn’t turn 29 until training camp, so Murray is very much in the prime of his career.
The Cardinals are currently slated to draft at No. 6, and the QB-starved Las Vegas Raiders, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets are ahead of them. The Murray decision could be a lot easier if the Cardinals were in a premium draft position. They also have Brissett under contract for another year, so he could help serve as a bridge to a rookie playing in 2026 or if Arizona decides to wait until 2027 to find its long-term answer.
Tua Tagovailoa
Following a dud on “Monday Night Football,” Tagovailoa, who turns 28 in March, became the first $50-million quarterback in history to get benched for performance reasons.
Tagovailoa is owed $54 million guaranteed in 2026. If the Dolphins decided to cut him, it’d be terribly difficult to field a competitive roster due to the salary cap ramifications that would result. But with general manager Chris Grier already gone, the Dolphins could opt for a hard reset, setting themselves up for a potentially great QB draft in 2027 while getting a head start on clearing the books.
Rival teams don’t view Tagovailoa as a viable trade candidate. His performance hasn’t warranted the price, and opponents don’t typically rush to save a competitor from their own cap sins. And unless the Dolphins are prepared for a Brock Osweiler-style trade, attaching a premium pick for someone to take on Tagovailoa’s contract, such a move sounds like a fantasy.
The Dolphins might be better off keeping Tagovailoa through 2026 and opening more options and financial flexibility for themselves in 2027.
Geno Smith
Smith, 35, is owed $18.5 million in guaranteed money in 2026, so the Las Vegas Raiders can move on if they choose. It’s hard to fathom any quarterback playing well in that offense this season, so it’s tough to crush Smith too much for the bad trip to Vegas.
Regardless of who deserves the brunt of the blame, the Raiders have to take a hard look in the mirror this offseason and recognize how far away they are from challenging for an AFC West title. Smith could be useful to a team that’s better stocked around the QB.
The Raiders are currently lined up for the No. 2 pick in the draft, so they could use a first-round pick on a QB for the first time since 2007 with JaMarcus Russell. It’s not entirely inconceivable the Raiders could land a late-round pick for Smith in a trade, but a release could be the more likely option if the Raiders decide to part ways.
Kirk Cousins
The Falcons’ offense has operated more efficiently with the 37-year-old in charge this season, as Cousins has shown more improvement as he’s put more distance between suffering a torn Achilles. Even still, it’s hard to fathom the Falcons giving Cousins another $35 million in 2026 — not after paying him $100 million for 22 starts, assuming he suits up for the final three games.
The Falcons will need someone in case Michael Penix Jr. isn’t recovered from a torn ACL or if he struggles upon his return. But again, with so many other holes to fill, the Falcons shouldn’t continue to sink so many resources into quarterback after they paired the Cousins contract with the Penix first-round pick in back-to-back months in 2024.
If Cousins had any trade value, the Falcons would have been able to move him by now, and it’s far-fetched to think a team would acquire his $35 million base salary in 2026. Cousins would almost certainly have to be released if the Falcons decide to go in a different direction.
Justin Fields
Fields, who turns 27 in March, was benched this season. Assuming the Jets release him this offseason, he’ll have earned $30 million for his New York cameo.
The 2021 first-round pick has also lost his job with the Chicago Bears and Steelers, so Fields will likely be demoted from bridge quarterback to backup. But if he focuses on the right system and coaching staff for his development, Fields could still have a chance somewhere down the line.
No, Fields hasn’t played consistently well enough for any of his three teams, but his replacements didn’t play any better. At the very least, it’s fair to ask if Fields has ever been put in the best position to succeed. That’s why it’s up to Fields to find the right landing spot, as Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold and Mac Jones have all recently done.
Fields should seek out the Kansas City Chiefs, Colts or Vikings. Whether or not Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) will be ready for Week 1, Fields could do a lot worse than Andy Reid’s offense for a spell.
Welcome the competition
There will inevitably be teams that need to cycle down to Plans B or C.
Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis has played well in two spot starts and other relief appearances for Jordan Love. Willis isn’t likely to draw any starting offers this offseason, but he could try to link up with a team that drafts a QB. His veteran experience could yield a runway to start out of camp.
Trey Lance, Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett are recent first-rounders who are scheduled to hit free agency. Sam Howell, a 2022 fifth-rounder with 18 career starts, is another young backup with intriguing tools.
Teams looking for free agents with longer resumes might focus on Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz or Gardner Minshew.
Draft class
The 2026 draft class isn’t as strong as teams had hoped before the season. There were roughly a dozen prospects with intriguing potential who didn’t take the big step that teams anticipated.
However, Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza seems to be distinguishing himself as the favorite for the first quarterback off the board. The Indiana product, like his QB1 competition, could cement himself there with a big playoff run.
Oregon’s Dante Moore is the other one to watch. The 20-year-old first-year starter is an electric player, perhaps with the highest ceiling of the group, but he’s been inconsistent. If he flashes that tantalizing potential in the playoff, though, teams will have a hard time passing on Moore if he declares. There’s still discussion that he could return to school.
Moore’s decision is massive because he appears to be Mendoza’s biggest threat for QB1. The trade dynamics at the top of the draft will be greatly impacted by the possibility of two quarterbacks in the first two picks. If it’s only Mendoza, consider the bidding war a team like the New York Giants, currently slated to pick No. 1, could start to secure the Indiana QB’s services.
After Mendoza and Moore, Alabama’s Ty Simpson has faded recently. Still, while Simpson doesn’t have traits like Mendoza or Moore, he is shaping up as a likely first-rounder — if he declares.
South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers announced that he’ll be returning to school, so he’s an immediate name to watch for the 2027 draft with Texas’ Arch Manning, who’s been long believed to be returning to school, as well.
Teams on high alert
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders currently have the No. 2 pick in the draft, and they don’t appear to be in much danger of falling. Even better, the Giants are at No. 1, and they won’t be taking a quarterback with Jaxson Dart already on the roster. While the Raiders might still have to trade up to get the guy they want, an open door is better than a closed one.
If the Raiders have a clear path to draft a QB, it should expedite their decision with Smith. But if they win a game or two and stunt their draft opportunities, the Raiders might need to extend the bridge into 2027.
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson has $46 million guaranteed in 2026, but that shouldn’t get him anything more than an opportunity to compete in camp against Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel and another rookie. Sanders and Gabriel have shown bright spots, but there’s far too much chaos with the Browns to accurately assess their long-term viability.
The Browns currently have the fourth pick, behind the Giants, Raiders and Tennessee Titans, who won’t be taking a QB after selecting Cam Ward at No. 1 last season. But also armed with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ first-rounder, the Browns have the assets to make a competitive bid for the No. 1 pick.
New York Jets
The Jets benched Fields for Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook, so their post-Rodgers plan is still under construction. They’ve currently got the No. 5 pick, which means they’ll look at moving up if they don’t climb the draft order by the end of the season. They’ve also got the Colts’ first-rounder, which is No. 18 and improving by the week, so the Jets, too, are capable of making noise at the top.
That’s only part of the journey, of course. They’ve been in QB turmoil for years because of their whiffs with high draft picks and big-ticket veterans, and they’ll be in this position again if they don’t identify the right prospect or fail to properly support and develop him.
Teams on standby
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have the Falcons’ first-round pick, which is currently No. 10, as well as their own. If they like Simpson as a future heir to Matthew Stafford, this could be the time to get aggressive. While the Rams might be better suited to seek out a developmental prospect in the second or third round, don’t ever rule out an unorthodox move from general manager Les Snead and coach Sean McVay.
Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy could put a lot of talk to rest over the next three weeks with a strong finish, but the 2024 first-rounder needs much more time to develop. He’s got eight starts under his belt, so it’s exceedingly premature to make any long-term assessments on his career.
However, the Vikings might have second thoughts about allowing McCarthy to develop on the fly, as their roster is built to win with quality QB play. They’d be a wildly intriguing spot for Mac Jones, though the 49ers might require them to pay an NFC tax.
Atlanta Falcons
Penix tore his ACL in November, so the start of his 2026 season is in jeopardy. His play was spotty before going down with his fifth season-ending injury (three torn ACLs) since college. The Falcons may consider a mid-round QB as an insurance plan, but they should also seek out a veteran with starting experience for the short term.
New Orleans Saints
Second-rounder Tyler Shough has flashed plenty of potential, and the Saints did a ton — a ton — of work on Shough and the 2025 QB class. So they’re invested in his development. But currently holding onto the No. 7 pick, who’s to say the Saints won’t have a higher-graded QB on their board come April?
Only if necessary
Pittsburgh Steelers
If Rodgers retires, the Steelers will likely return to the veteran market. They’ve aggressively courted draft prospects in recent years, so it stands to reason they’ll use a premium pick on a quarterback sooner than later.
Indianapolis Colts
We can’t completely rule out the possibility of another team swooping in with an overly aggressive offer for Daniel Jones. If the Colts lose him, they should prioritize the veteran market. They gave up two first-round picks for cornerback Sauce Gardner and shouldn’t be letting off the gas.
Arizona Cardinals
Currently holding onto the No. 6 pick, consider the Cardinals another early hypothetical landing spot for Simpson. If they feel they’re in a position to draft a franchise quarterback, it could nudge their decision with Murray.
Miami Dolphins
While it makes more financial sense to keep Tagovailoa through 2026, the Dolphins need to prioritize the draft, even if it’s only in the second round. They’re at a pivotal point in the organization with leadership changes, and they need to determine where Tagovailoa fits.
