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Next Gen ATP Finals permutations: Best young men’s tennis players aim for semifinals

The Next Gen ATP Finals in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia started with an upset Wednesday, as Rafael Jodar of Spain beat overwhelming favorite Learner Tien of the U.S. in their opening round-robin match.

The final round-robin matches began with all eight players in the field still in with a chance of qualifying, with just Alexander Blockx of Belgium through after two wins out of two. There were a heady 20 qualification scenarios per group, so for those deeply invested, they are reproduced here, and eliminated after the relevant matches have been played.

Next Gen ATP Finals 2025 Blue Group qualification scenarios

1) Regardless of score, if Tien defeats Budkov Kjær and Landaluce defeats Jodar, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjaer qualifies 2nd.
2) Regardless of score, if Budkov Kjær defeats Tien and Jodar defeats Landaluce, then Budkov Kjaer wins the group and Jodar qualifies 2nd.
3) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 3 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 3 sets, then Tien wins the group and Jodar qualifies 2nd.
4) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 3 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 4 sets, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjær qualifies 2nd.
5) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in in 3 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 5 sets, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjær qualifies 2nd.
6) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 4 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 3 sets, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjær qualifies 2nd.
7) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 4 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 4 sets, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjær qualifies 2nd.
8) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 4 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 5 sets, then Tien wins the group and Budkov Kjær qualifies 2nd.
9) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 5 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 3 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Jodar qualifies 2nd.
10) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 5 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 4 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
11) If Tien defeats Budkov Kjær in 5 sets and Jodar defeats Landaluce in 5 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
12) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in in 3 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in in 3 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Landaluce qualifies 2nd.
13) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in in 3 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 4 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
14) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in in 3 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 5 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Jodar qualifies 2nd.
15) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 4 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 3 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
16) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 4 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 4 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
17) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 4 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 5 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
18) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 5 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 3 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
19) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 5 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 4 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.
20) If Budkov Kjær defeats Tien in 5 sets and Landaluce defeats Jodar in 5 sets, then Budkov Kjær wins the group and Tien qualifies 2nd.

Next Gen ATP Finals 2025 Red Group qualification scenarios

1) Regardless of score, if Blockx defeats Prižmić and Basavareddy defeats Engel, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
2) Regardless of score, if Prižmić defeats Blockx and Engel defeats Basavareddy, then Prižmić wins the group and Blockx qualifies 2nd.
3) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 3 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 3 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Engel qualifies 2nd.
4) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 3 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 4 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Engel qualifies 2nd.
5) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 3 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 5 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
6) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 4 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 3 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Engel qualifies 2nd.
7) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 4 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 4 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
8) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 4 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 5 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
9) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 5 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 3 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
10) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 5 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 4 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
11) If Blockx defeats Prižmić in 5 sets and Engel defeats Basavareddy in 5 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
12) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 3 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 3 sets, then Prižmić wins the group and Blockx qualifies 2nd.
13) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 3 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 4 sets, then Prižmić wins the group and Blockx qualifies 2nd.
14) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 3 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 5 sets, then Prižmić wins the group and Blockx qualifies 2nd.
15) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 4 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 3 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
16) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 4 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 4 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
17) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 4 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 5 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.
18) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 5 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 3 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
19) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 5 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 4 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Basavareddy qualifies 2nd.
20) If Prižmić defeats Blockx in 5 sets and Basavareddy defeats Engel in 5 sets, then Blockx wins the group and Prižmić qualifies 2nd.

Tien, who lost in last year’s final to João Fonseca, entered as world No. 28 after a successful first full season on the ATP Tour. The other seven players in the field, drawn from the best men’s players aged 20 and under, are clustered between world No. 116 and world No. 187; Jodar is No. 168, and has never played a full ATP Tour match, with the Next Gen ATP Finals played to first-to four games.

Two of the strongest eligible entrants, Jakub Menšík of Czechia and Fonseca of Brazil, who like Tien this year became mainstays on the regular tour, withdrew ahead of the event due to injury. Menšík and Fonseca finished first and second in the ‘Race to Jeddah,’ which counts ranking points won by season. That meant that Jodar, who finished No. 9 in the race, was eligible to play; No. 10, Rei Sakamoto of Japan, then also withdrew through injury, giving a spot to Justin Engel of Germany, who is the youngest player in the field at 18.

Jodar finished the year strongly by winning two consecutive ATP Challenger Tour titles, the rung below the main tour. Just below Tien in the race were Alexander Blockx, who made the second round of the Cincinnati Masters this summer, and Martin Landaluce, who won a Challenger Tour title in September by beating rising Belgian Raphaël Collignon in the final.

Dino Prižmić, the Croatian who memorably went toe-to-toe with Novak Djokovic at the 2024 Australian Open, qualified alongside Nishesh Basavareddy of the U.S., who took a set off Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open and recently added Gilles Cervara, Daniil Medvedev’s former coach, to his team. The final qualifier is Nicolai Budkov Kjær of Norway, who won four Challenger Tour titles this season.

This is how the draw shook out:

Next Gen ATP Finals Blue Group

PlayerAgeATP Ranking ‘Race to Jeddah’ Ranking

Learner Tien

20

28

3

Martin Landaluce

19

134

6

Nicolai Budkov Kjær

19

136

7

Rafael Jodar

19

168

9

Next Gen ATP Finals Red Group

PlayerAgeATP Ranking ‘Race to Jeddah’ Ranking

Alexander Blockx

20

116

4

Dino Prižmić

20

128

5

Nishesh Basavareddy

20

167

8

Justin Engel

18

187

11

Before Jodar’s stunning win over Tien in the first round-robin run, Blockx cruised past Engel 3-4(7), 4-2, 4-2, 4-2, while Basavareddy overcame Prižmić in a tighter match that went the same distance, 4-2, 4-3(7), 3-4(3), 4-2. Budkov Kjær then beat a nervy Landaluce 4-1, 3-4(7), 4-2, 4-3(4).

In the second round of matches:

Prižmić def. Engel 4-1, 2-4, 4-3(3), 4-1
Blockx def. Basavareddy 4-3(2), 4-3(10-8), 4-1

Budkov Kjær def. Jodar 4-1, 4-2, 1-4, 4-2
Tien def. Landaluce 1-4, 4-1, 4-3(4), 4-3(2)

Here’s everything to know about the event.

How does the Next Gen ATP Finals draw work?

The eight players who qualified were split into four pairs for the draw. The first pair is No. 1 and No. 2, the second is No. 3 and No. 4, and so on.

These seedings follow the players’ rankings in the ‘ATP Race to Jeddah,’ the table which only counts ranking points earned in 2025.

The No. 1 seed (Learner Tien) and No. 2 seed (Alexander Blockx) were drawn into the Blue Group and the Red Group respectively. The remaining three pairs were then allocated a spot at random, pair-by-pair.

What is the format for the Next Gen ATP Finals?

The ATP Next Gen Finals begins Wednesday December 17, with four matches per day in the group stages: two in the Jeddah afternoon from 11 a.m. GMT / 6 a.m. ET and two in the Jeddah evening from 4 p.m. GMT / 11 a.m. ET.

The final is Sunday, December 21 and the two semifinals will be played Saturday, December 20.

Each player plays three round-robin matches, before the top two in each group contest the semifinals, with 1st in the Blue Group playing 2nd in the Red Group and visa versa.

Each match is best of five sets, but the first player to win four games wins the set, rather than the usual six, and a tiebreak is played at 3-3 instead of 6-6. The tiebreaks are first to seven points with a two-point winning margin — 7-4, 7-5, 8-6, 9-7, etc.

The event also uses ‘No-Ad’ scoring. At 40-40, the server chooses to serve to the deuce court or the ad court and the two players play a deciding point. There were previously no lets, a feature of American college tennis in which a serve that hits the net but lands in the correct service box counts as a live ball, but that has been removed for 2025.

The shot clock between points, which has been a contentious issue on the ATP Tour, is also different to the main tour. If a point is fewer than three shots, the usual 25-second time between points is reduced to 15 seconds, with eight seconds allowed between the first and second serve at all times.

Who won last year’s tournament?

Fonseca defeated Tien 2-4, 4-3, 4-0, 4-2 to win the 2024 event. It was the first edition for which only players 20-and-under were eligible, with the ‘Next Gen’ having included players aged 21 and under prior to that.

How much prize money is there?

Each of the eight players gets $154,000 (£114,740) just for participating. A round-robin match win is worth $37,500 (£27,940); a semifinal win earns $113,500 (£86,425) and victory in the final is worth $157,250 (£117,155). If the eventual champion goes undefeated, they will take home $539,750 (£402,130).

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