The Athletic has live coverage of Alabama vs. Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff first round.
Editor’s note: This article is part of our College Football Stadium Rankings series, highlighting the most interesting venues across the country.
When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, the format’s architects tried to preserve the sanctity of the regular season by giving byes to the top four teams and putting first-round games on the campuses of seeds 5-8. That decision means Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma will hold some of the biggest home games ever this weekend with matchups against James Madison, Tulane, Miami and Alabama, respectively.
So which team has the biggest home-field advantage?
To explore the answer, we (unscientifically) investigated seven sets of numbers, most dating back to 2015. We accounted for variables like talent and overall team success (the better team should win most of the time, regardless of venue). We excluded data from the 2020 season because attendance was limited amid the pandemic, and we mostly ignored results against nonconference cupcakes.
We ranked all four host sites in each category, giving 4 points for the top performer, 3 for the second and so on. Our methodology isn’t perfect, but the broad approach allows us to piece together an answer that definitely won’t upset anyone in College Station.
Home record
This category is self-explanatory. Because we wouldn’t expect home-field advantage to have much influence against an overpowered MAC opponent, we analyzed games only against power conference teams or the top of the Group of 5. For example, we counted Oregon’s win over 2024 Boise State (which made the CFP) but not its win this season over Oregon State (which went 2-10).
- Oklahoma: 37-7 (.841 winning percentage)
- Oregon: 42-9 (.824)
- Ole Miss: 26-17 (.605)
- Texas A&M: 24-16 (.600)
Scoreboard: Oklahoma 4, Oregon 3, Ole Miss 2, Texas A&M 1
Home/road differential
This is also obvious. We took each team’s home winning percentage and subtracted its road winning percentage to see how much better a team fares in its own stadium. Our road games included neutral sites (like Texas-Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl), conference championships and Playoff games. We excluded non-CFP bowls to avoid the messy complexities of opt-outs.
Oregon won 24.2 percent more games at home with Oklahoma (20.8 percent) in second. Ole Miss (13.6 percent) and Texas A&M (12 percent) were at the bottom in this category, too.
Scoreboard: Oklahoma 7, Oregon 7, Ole Miss 3, Texas A&M 3
Against the spread
Oddsmakers at BetMGM usually award 2 1/2 to 3 points to the home team. Oregon might get an extra boost this week because its opponent, James Madison, must travel more than 2,000 miles from Virginia.
Even though professionals factor home-field advantage into their lines, this category helps us in case some venues are still undervalued.
The Rebels (18-23-2) were the only team with a losing record at home and on the road against the spread in these matchups, according to Odds Shark’s historical database. Oregon covered about 53 percent of its games either way, while the Aggies went from five games under .500 on the road to two games above .500 at home. Oklahoma was the winner with the best record against the spread at home (25-19) and the largest home/road differential.
Scoreboard: Oklahoma 11, Oregon 9, Texas A&M 6, Ole Miss 4
Games expected to be close
Although we tried to weed out uncompetitive games, some conference opponents are still overmatched (think: Oregon-Rutgers or much of Oklahoma’s Big 12 tenure). For this category, we analyzed straight-up results in games where the spread was within seven points either way. A team with a stronger home-field advantage should perform better in games like this against comparable opponents.
- Oregon: 10-4
- Ole Miss: 14-9
- Oklahoma: 7-5
- Texas A&M: 10-12
The home/road differentials put the teams in the same order.
Scoreboard: Oregon 13, Oklahoma 13, Texas A&M 7, Ole Miss 7
Home results as the worst team
If an inferior team beats a visiting team that’s better, it’s reasonable to think home-field advantage might have played a role. To determine which team was better or worse, we used end-of-the-year SP+ rankings from ESPN. Last year’s Sooners, for instance, finished 29 spots behind Alabama, which makes their triumph over the Crimson Tide notable.
Oregon’s 4-5 home record was the best. The Ducks’ winning percentage was almost 20 percentage points higher at home than on the road, which was also No. 1 in our group.
We ranked Oklahoma next because its winning percentage at home (.200) was a tick higher than on the road (.154). Both Ole Miss and Texas A&M actually had higher winning percentages on the road as the inferior team than at home.
Scoreboard: Oregon 17, Oklahoma 16, Ole Miss 9, Texas A&M 8
Oklahoma upset first-round CFP opponent Alabama at home in November 2024. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
Home results as the less talented team
Same idea as the last one, except we tried to isolate talent as our variable. Our source was the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, which relies on high school recruiting rankings. It’s imperfect in the portal era, but it’s a good rough gauge to determine whether a home crowd pushed a lesser team to victory.
Oregon had the biggest home/road split; the Ducks posted a .714 winning percentage at home in these situations, compared to .300 on the road. Oklahoma was next (.800 at home, .438 on the road). Texas A&M (4-10) finished with a losing home record.
Scoreboard: Oregon 21, Oklahoma 19, Ole Miss 11, Texas A&M 9
Pre-snap penalties forced (last 5 years)
Coaches often credit the home crowd when an opponent moves before the snap or can’t get the snap off on time. Fortunately for us, TruMedia keeps track of the number of false starts and delay-of-game penalties each team has drawn at home against all opponents:
- Oregon: 2.45 per game
- Texas A&M: 2.18
- Ole Miss: 1.86
- Oklahoma: 1.77
The team that has drawn the most nationally? Boise State, followed by Utah, UTSA, Tennessee and Clemson.
Final score
- Oregon: 25
- Oklahoma: 20
- Ole Miss: 13
- Texas A&M: 12
Although Autzen Stadium doesn’t have the tradition or capacity of some of the sport’s other coliseums, its recent history and results are top-notch for Oregon. On the other end, our numbers suggest Kyle Field’s general reputation as one of the toughest home environments at Texas A&M might be slightly exaggerated.
Then again, each of these four venues will get another major data point this weekend in one of the biggest contests they’ve ever hosted.
— The Athletic’s Manny Navarro contributed to this report.
The College Football Stadium Rankings series is part of a partnership with StubHub. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
