Tonight the first round of the College Football Playoff begins as Alabama heads to Memorial Stadium in Norman to face Oklahoma. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Alabama (10-3) is the 9-seed and just got rolled by Georgia 28-7 in the SEC Championship game, failing to cover as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Oklahoma (10-2) is the 8-seed and just held off LSU 17-13 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Alabama listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line flip in favor of Oklahoma, pushing the Sooners from a 1.5-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect a line to move if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have sided with the “dog to favorite” Sooners at home.
At Circa, Oklahoma is taking in 42% of spread bets but a whopping 86% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing the home team.
Many pros have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by targeting the Sooners on the moneyline at -115.
At Circa, Oklahoma is taking in 47% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, indicating a sharp discrepancy in favor of a straight up Sooners win at a cheap price.
Oklahoma has a notable 7-day rest advantage, having last played on November 29th while Alabama last played on December 6th.
The Sooners have the edge defensively, allowing 14.9 PPG compared to the Crimson Tide giving up 18.8 PPG.
Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 back in mid November, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs.
In terms of the total, it opened at 40.5, touched as high as 41.5 and has come back down to 40.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 30% of bets and 38% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 52% of bets and 54% of dollars. Both books are showing a modest “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for high 40s with clear skies and 15-20 MPH winds with gusts up to 30-35 MPH. This qualifies as a “windy under” system match.
CFP Champion Odds (DraftKings)
Ohio State +210
Indiana +290
Georgia +550
Texas Tech +800
Oregon +900
Texas A&M +2000
Ole Miss, Miami, Alabama +2500
Oklahoma +5000
James Madison +70000
Tulane +80000
