The Red Sox have created a financial path for a big move. Alex Bregman should be their first choice

The Boston Red Sox will have no excuses if they fail to re-sign free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman. And they will need to pivot quickly and dramatically if Bregman lands with another club.

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as legitimate suitors for Bregman, according to sources briefed on the discussions. Other clubs, including the Chicago Cubs, also are said to be involved.

So, while Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow seemingly has created a clear financial path to bring back Bregman, he must continue exploring other options, knowing none might be as good.

The pending acquisition of first baseman Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals was Breslow’s first step toward boosting his offense. But if he does not add another bat somewhere, he essentially would be swapping out Bregman for Contreras without additional upgrades to a lineup that after the All-Star break ranked only 14th in runs per game.

Free agent Bo Bichette, who turns 28 in March, is four years younger than Bregman, and capable of moving from shortstop to second or third. A trade for Arizona’s Ketel Marte or St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan also could provide a major upgrade at second. And a number of other alternatives exist at third – Marcelo Mayer internally, Eugenio Suárez and Kazuma Okamoto in free agency, the Houston Astros’ Isaac Paredes and Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado in trades.

Bregman, who turns 32 in March, is still the best fit for the Red Sox. He is proven in Boston. And he is one of the game’s most respected leaders, that rare player who makes his teammates better.

Money should not be a problem. The company that owns the Red Sox, the Fenway Sports Group, agreed last week to sell the Pittsburgh Penguins for $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion, approximately double what it paid for the team in 2021. FSG surely prefers to view the Red Sox as a separate entity, but not to worry. Breslow, to this point, has conducted his offseason rather efficiently.

None of Boston’s three acquisitions – Contreras and pitchers Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo – suffocated the team’s payroll. And the Rafael Devers trade last June, which netted the Red Sox a savings of more than $220 million, left the team with money to burn.

Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox’s former chief baseball officer who is now the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, is practically serving as Boston’s personal piggy bank. To extract better returns in separate trades for Gray and Contreras, Bloom sent his old employer a combined $28 million.

For Bloom’s replacement, Breslow, it was a neat little bit of financial wizardry, considering the Red Sox’s local revenues dwarf the Cardinals’. Perhaps the Cardinals would like to contribute to the next round of renovations at Fenway Park, too?

Gray was paid down to $21 million for one year, Contreras to a reported $42.5 million over two. Oviedo, acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates, is projected to earn $2 million in arbitration.

No back breakers there, especially considering that Contreras’ fWAR the past two seasons was roughly the same as Pete Alonso’s. Contreras, who turns 34 in May, is 2 1/2 years older than Alonso. But aside from the three right-handers the Red Sox are sending the Cardinals – Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita – he will cost $112.5 million less.

Gray, 36, also is on the older side. But over the past three years, he was worth an average of $34 million per season according to Fangraphs’ dollar metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency. By the estimates some teams use, his value was even higher.

We’re talking, then, about two relative bargains, as long as Contreras and Gray are reasonably productive. Oviedo, if he pitches, say, 120 league-average innings in his first full season coming off Tommy John surgery in November 2023, will qualify as a third.

Bregman is projected by The Athletic’s Tim Britton to receive a six-year, $171 million contract. His leadership makes his value greater than the sum of his offense and defense. His impact on the Red Sox last season was transformative, even though he missed nearly seven weeks due to a strained right quad.

And if the Red Sox lose him?

They could turn around and sign Bichette, the younger player who Britton projects to receive eight years, $212 million. And if they played Bichette at second, perhaps they would be comfortable installing Mayer at third.

Mayer, who just turned 23, played well defensively last season filling in for Bregman, but is far from a proven hitter. He also missed the last two months after undergoing right wrist surgery, marking the third straight year his season ended due to injury. A back issue sidelined him in 2024, a shoulder problem in 2023.

If not Bichette, the Sox could trade for Marte or Donovan (another Cardinal!) to play second. Either of those moves, though, would come at a steep price in prospects. At this point, the Red Sox probably are disinclined to trade a top young arm such as Payton Tolle or Connelly Early when they already have parted with some of their pitching depth.

A full season of Roman Anthony would help the offense. But a trade of Jarren Duran, still possible, would make the group thinner. And if the Red Sox struck out on Bregman and Bichette, failed to trade for Marte or Donovan and were uncomfortable committing to Mayer, they would need to find an external solution at third.

Okamoto, 29, is thought to possess a higher floor but lower ceiling than Munetaka Murakami, who on Sunday signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. But even though Okamoto’s contact skills are superior to Murakami’s, he likely would require a period of adjustment to the North American game. And his defense, like Murakami’s, is not considered a strength.

Suárez, 34, is a streaky type who hit 36 homers in 106 games with the Diamondbacks last season, then 13 in 53 games after getting traded to the Seattle Mariners. He strikes out a ton. He rates poorly defensively. But his “good vibes” personality is infectious, and would help compensate for the loss of Bregman.

Paredes, the player the Astros acquired last offseason to replace Bregman, is perhaps the most intriguing of the third-base alternatives, if Houston is willing to move him. Astros general manager Dana Brown has not ruled out the possibility for the right return. But Paredes, 26, is under club control for two more seasons, with a projected salary of $9.3 million in 2026. The cost in prospects for the Red Sox almost certainly would be higher than it was in any of their past three trades.

Finally, there is Arenado, who seemed ready to waive his no-trade clause for Boston last offseason, only to remain with the Cardinals when the Red Sox signed Bregman to his three-year, $120 million contract with an opt-out after one year.

Arenado, who turns 35 in April, is in offensive decline and owed $37 million over the next two seasons. Maybe he would be energized playing at Fenway and reuniting with his old Colorado Rockies teammate Trevor Story. Or maybe he would just continue to fade.

The answer for the Red Sox is Bregman. If not him, Bichette. And the way Breslow has operated this offseason, making one economically shrewd move after another, the Sox are in perfect position to strike.

They have the money. Time to spend it.