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PFT’s Week 17 2025 NFL picks: Florio vs. Simms

Last week was a lot better for me, straight up. It was even better for Simms.

He doubled his three-game lead, hitting on four of our five disagreements as part of a 14-2 slate. (I was 11-5.)

For the year, I’m now 156-83-1. He’s 162-77-1.

Against the spread, he was 8-7-1. I went 7-8-1. I still hold a nine-game edge: 127-109-4 to 118-118-4.

We disagree on three games this week. Which could cut his lead in half. Or expand it to nine.

For all Week 17 picks, keep reading.

Cowboys (-6.5) at Commanders

Josh Johnson is likely starting for Washington. Why is the spread only 6.5 points?

Florio’s pick: Cowboys, 34, Commanders 20.

Simms’s pick: Cowboys, 27, Commanders 20.

Lions (-6) at Vikings

Max Brosmer gets his second start for the Vikings. The first one couldn’t have gone worse.

Florio’s pick: Lions, 27, Vikings 20.

Simms’s pick: Lions, 27, Vikings 17.

Broncos (-12.5) at Chiefs

The Broncos will run up the score in this one, if they can.

Florio’s pick: Broncos 30, Chiefs 10.

Simms’s pick: Broncos 28, Chiefs 10.

Texans at Chargers (-2.5)

Justin Herbert, who may be playing better than ever, keenly remembers his four-interception afternoon against Houston in the playoffs.

Florio’s pick: Chargers 23, Texans 20.

Simms’s pick: Texans 20, Chargers 17.

Ravens at Packers (-2.5)

Green Bay gets closer to a playoff berth, and the Ravens start thinking about possible changes for 2026.

Florio’s pick: Packers 24, Ravens 17.

Simms’s pick: Packers 24, Ravens 20.

Seahawks (-7.5) at Panthers

Seattle has the top seed in its grasp. For the Panthers, it all comes down to Week 18.

Florio’s pick: Seahawks 30, Panthers 24.

Simms’s pick: Seahawks 28, Panthers 20.

Cardinals at Bengals (-7)

Joe Burrow is happy again. The smile spreads against a Cardinals team that just wants to get through Week 18.

Florio’s pick: Bengals 34, Cardinals 17.

Simms’s pick: Bengals 35, Cardinals 24.

Steelers (-3.5) at Browns

If the Ravens lose on Saturday night, Aaron Rodgers may get a day off. Which opens the door for Cleveland to get a late-season win.

Florio’s pick: Browns 20, Steelers 16.

Simms’s pick: Steelers 21, Browns 13.

Jaguars (-6.5) at Colts

The spirit is willing, but the flesh is 44 years old.

Florio’s pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 20.

Simms’s pick: Jaguars 34, Colts 20.

Buccaneers (-5.5) at Dolphins

If the Bucs can’t beat the Dolphins, the offseason in Tampa Bay could get very interesting.

Florio’s pick: Buccaneers 31, Dolphins 23.

Simms’s pick: Buccaneers 28, Dolphin 24.

Patriots (-13.5) at Jets

This would be a blowout even in Madden.

Florio’s pick: Patriots 35, Jets 10.

Simms’s pick: Patriots 31, Jets 10.

Saints (-2.5) at Titans

Tyler Shough is making a late run at offensive rookie of the year.

Florio’s pick: Saints 20, Titans 17.

Simms’s pick: Saints 20, Titans 17.

Giants at Raiders (-1.5)

The New York market will have to suffer through this one, instead of Eagles-Bills.

Florio’s pick: Raiders 27, Giants 24.

Simms’s pick: Raiders 20, Giants 17.

Eagles at Bills (-1.5)

Josh Allen’s foot could be an issue on Sunday.

Florio’s pick: Bills 30, Eagles 27.

Simms’s pick: Bills 24, Eagles 20.

Bears at 49ers (-3)

A win by the 49ers sets up a Week 18 opportunity to steal the No. 1 seed. They’ll have to overcome whatever magic the Bears have conjured this season.

Florio’s pick: 49ers 27, Bears 23.

Simms’s pick: Bears 31, 49ers 27.

Rams (-8.5) at Falcons

The Rams will be looking to counter their Week 16 debacle in Seattle.

Florio’s pick: Rams 34, Falcons 20.

Simms’s pick: Rams 31, Falcons 24.

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