With two weeks remaining, playoff possibilities remain intriguingly varied, and nearly every division is still in flux. To get a sense of where things stand and to pick which games to devote your time and attention to, here’s a rundown of each division and which games carry the most power in determining a winner. (Note: we won’t get too deep into first-round bye scenarios, since we can just wait a week and know for sure).
Staff picks for every game are below, but first let’s get into what’s on the line.
State of the NFC West
The Rams went from Ruling Kings to Besieged Castle, and the 49ers and Seahawks are now on a collision course.
Biggest game: Bears at 49ers
From an NFC West perspective, San Francisco needs to win this game to retain full control of its fate. The division and No. 1 seed would all still be in front of the 49ers, and their showdown with Seattle in the finale would be the game of the season.
They’ll need considerably better play out of both lines if they hope to get there, as Chicago’s run game has blossomed into a full-blown problem, and the pass rush has a knack for turning pressure into turnovers.
The Bears’ 49 percent rushing success rate is the NFL’s best. The 49ers have struggled all season to get push up front, and given that Chicago is gaining the second-most yards before contact per carry, and Caleb Williams has shown that, given enough time, his arm can solve problems, the Niners’ battered defense will need to get creative or pray for mistakes.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco has mostly managed to keep its quarterbacks safe. But run blocking is a mess, and while Brock Purdy manages to remain upright, he’s asked to complete a lot of passes out of structure or on the move. Chicago’s secondary is vulnerable to big plays, but tremendously opportunistic, leading the league in interceptions even as they allow the second-most touchdowns on deep balls.
It’s a bad combination for the 49ers, but 2025 has seen them beat the odds enough times that being at home with the division in sight and Christian McCaffrey on the roster is enough to keep the dream alive.
As for the NFC North perspective…
State of the NFC North
It is now Chicago’s to lose.
Biggest Game: Also Bears at 49ers
At some point, the Bears are going to have to beat a fully healthy starting quarterback, but that’s a problem for another time. One more victory (or Packers loss) secures a division title in Ben Johnson’s first season. This particular victory would open a path to the NFC’s top seed for Chicago, but we’ll cross that bridge should we come to it.
As Caleb Williams goes, the Bears follow, and the second-year quarterback has largely used his prodigious arm for good of late. He has thrown just two picks in the last eight weeks (270 attempts), while making some truly eye-popping throws in high-stakes moments. But he still has accuracy issues, posting the second-worst completion percentage when throwing to open receivers (75 percent). Williams continues to take longer than any quarterback in football to throw (3.21 seconds), and his season completion rate of 57.8 percent is the lowest of any quarterback to win 10 or more games since Andrew Luck in 2012.
But it has worked! The open receivers Williams hits convert those catches into touchdowns (14 on catches with at least three yards of separation), and he’s made up for his misses with throws that seem impossible until he makes them. The Niners’ secondary, as well as it has come together, is too hindered by poor run defense and a lack of a pass rush to be a legitimate threat. So long as Williams’ positive work continues to overwhelm, his underwhelming accuracy shouldn’t be fatal this week.
State of the NFC South
Should come down to Week 18, but who knows?
Biggest Game: Seahawks at Panthers
Carolina has made it painfully clear it will not be understood, and are now in a position to not only win the division, but also alter the NFC West and influence the NFC’s first-round bye.
If the Panthers upset the Seahawks, as they did the Rams and Packers before them, they would win the South if Tampa Bay loses to Miami, and Tampa could very much lose to Miami. The upset would also put Seattle in a position where it cannot win the West without tons of external help from unreliable sources. At that point, the Rams would be back in the mix, and the NFC’s No. 1 seed would be a three-team race not involving Seattle.
Do you see the power these maniacs wield? Look at all they can do with one little upset. This is where we would point out the fact that the Panthers cannot pressure opposing quarterbacks or protect their own, or that they have a negative EPA per play when passing and when rushing. It’s also the moment to mention the Seahawks are top five in both generating QB pressure and preventing it, are third in yards per play and points per game and have one of the NFL’s best downfield passing attacks.
But all of those things were true for the Rams and Packers, and look where that got them. This is Carolina, in Carolina, and if you think you can predict this outcome, you haven’t been paying attention.
State of the NFC East
Philly can set the “Out of Office” message up, since they’ve clinched the division and will not earn a bye.
Biggest Game: None.
Eagles at Bills is important elsewhere, but as far as the NFC East is concerned, let’s circle back in January.
State of the AFC East
The Patriots remain in control, but must keep winning for at least this week.
Biggest Game: Eagles at Bills
NOW we can talk about it. The division is a long shot for Buffalo, but the Bills can keep the Pats from getting any rest if they continue to win. The good news for them is that Philadelphia has little reason to try all that hard.
New England essentially has a bye week against the Jets, but they still have to expend enough effort to get a victory. If the Bills win, the Patriots will have to do it again next week against a Miami team that has already bitten several opponents who assumed they were dead.
The Bills will have the Jets that week, so if they can secure this win, at the very least, they’ll have kept their rivals from comfort.
State of the AFC South
☝🏻Obligatory, yes. Still earned. The Jaguars aren’t safe, but they have more control than anyone could have imagined they’d have at this point.
Biggest Game: Jaguars at Colts
Not only does a Jacksonville win put the Colts out of their misery, but it also effectively ends the AFC South race. The Jags have Tennessee in the final week, and while Liam Coen’s new unit is imperfect, it doesn’t have lose-at-home-to-the-Titans-level flaws. Two wins seal the deal, as does a Houston loss, so Jacksonville’s new regime is on the cusp of delivering everything they promised ahead of schedule.
The Jaguars were +550 to win the division as recently as Week 11, but coalesced right as the Colts fell apart. Indy’s thumping on MNF didn’t end their season mathematically, but the air is out of the balloon. Philip Rivers’ serviceable starts aside, Indianapolis is playing like a team that reached the acceptance stage, while Jacksonville is coming off a dominant win in Denver and playing its best ball of the season. The Texans and Chargers will be a much better show, but this is the game that moves the needle.
State of the AFC North
Mike Tomlin does it again. It’s unclear how valuable “it” ultimately is, but the Steelers are one win (or a Ravens loss) from another perfunctory playoff appearance.
Biggest Game: Steelers at Browns
For the love of God, Pittsburgh, end this already. This division has trundled along for weeks, with both the Ravens and Steelers acting like two people on a date hoping the other one reaches for the check.
Pittsburgh can bring the NFL’s least interesting drama to a close by beating Cleveland, a team on a four-game skid that’s been playing for next year since the preseason. Despite their many deficiencies, however, the Browns have managed to play good teams close and exhibit stretches of competency on offense. Couple that with a ferocious pass rush and a top-three defense against both the pass and the run, and Cleveland is more than capable of beating a Steelers team that has an immobile quarterback and tends to fade in fourth quarters.
To make matters worse for Pittsburgh, receiver DK Metcalf is suspended for two games for an altercation with a rowdy fan in Detroit, meaning the Steelers are without the guy responsible for roughly 30 percent of their receiving yards. Metcalf has more yards than the next two closest Steelers combined, is the only wideout with more than two touchdowns, and is responsible for 27 percent of the team’s first downs.
Aaron Rodgers will have to throw to his backs a lot, and the Browns allow the second-fewest yards per game to backfield targets. With the game in Cleveland and Myles Garrett one sack away from setting the all-time single-season record, Rodgers might not make it to halftime.
None of it may matter, since the Ravens have to beat Green Bay on the road to force a winner-take-all season finale, but given how the division has gone to this point, expect the AFC North’s version of Murphy’s Law to hold: The most exhausting thing that can happen, will.
State of the AFC West
Improbably, the Broncos could still lose this thing.
Biggest Game: Texans at Chargers
If Los Angeles pulls this off, it will have the hardest-won division title in recent memory. At 11-4, they can steal the AFC West from the Broncos by winning out, despite Denver rattling off 11 straight wins from Week 4 to Week 15. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they couldn’t be less equipped to face the two teams they have to beat.
Houston has one of the quickest pass rushes in the league and is on the verge of being the first team to allow fewer than 175 yards passing and 95 yards rushing per game since the 2008 Steelers (Super Bowl champs). And the Chargers have no way to stop it. Riddled by injuries up front, L.A. has used 15 different offensive line combinations for at least 10 snaps this season, and none of them have worked.
Justin Herbert has taken more hits than any other quarterback by a wide margin (106 as of Week 15), and suffered a broken left hand three weeks ago. He’s playing with plates and screws holding his bones together, and he’s being sacked on nearly 10 percent of his dropbacks. The Chargers’ run game runs hot and cold, which complicates playcalling since explosive runs are not something you can plan for. The Texans have allowed a negative EPA per rush against eight of their 13 opponents, and surrendered the seventh-fewest explosive runs thus far.
The Chargers face a black diamond-level challenge in Week 16, and if they somehow survive it, they’ll get a chance to play Denver one-on-one for a division title. The Broncos’ defense is better than Houston’s in every category, but no sense in worrying about that until you have to.
Staff picks
