AFC Playoff Picture
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Division Leaders (and Closing Schedules)
The New England Patriots are simultaneously trying to catch the Denver Broncos for first in the AFC while also attempting to hold off the Buffalo Bills for the AFC East title.
At this point, to win the AFC, the Pats need to win both their remaining games at the 3-12 New York Jets and home vs. the 6-9 Miami Dolphins, who just lost 45-21 vs. the 5-10 Cincinnati Bengals. “Any given Sunday” is a mantra that holds true in the NFL, but chances are the Pats win those contests.
If New England goes 2-0, they still need the Broncos to lose to the Los Angeles Chargers at home to close the season. Denver holds the common opponents tiebreaker over New England because of the Pats’ 20-13 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
Ultimately, the Broncos control their own destiny for the No. 1 seed, but the Pats can steal it.
The Jags still have a shot at the No. 1 seed, but they would need to (a) win out, (b) see the Broncos lose to L.A. and (c) see the Pats lose one of two. They own the tiebreaker over Denver (head-to-head) and New England (conference record).
The Steelers may not need to do anything to win the AFC North. If the Ravens lose to the Green Bay Packers on Saturday, they will win the division. If Baltimore wins, the Steelers can beat the Cleveland Browns on Sunday and take care of business.
Wild-Card Teams (and Closing Schedules)
The Los Angeles Chargers have clinched a playoff berth, but they also control their own destiny for the AFC West. If they win their final two games, then they’ll jump the Denver Broncos. L.A. would own the tiebreaker against Denver by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record.
The Buffalo Bills can also win the AFC East, but that would be a tougher endeavor. In essence, the 11-win Bills need to make up a game in the standings against the 12-win Patriots. If the two teams finish tied, then Buffalo would get in via the conference record tiebreaker.
However, the Patriots have an easier schedule down the stretch at the Jets and home vs. Miami, so Buffalo simply may be destined for the wild card even with a 2-0 record down the stretch.
The Houston Texans, rolling after an 0-3 start, will make the playoffs if they win one game or the Indianapolis Colts lose one. However, they have greater aspirations to win the AFC South. There are a few ways for them to do that, including winning two down the stretch while the Jaguars lose their final two.
However, the Texans can also make up a game in the standings on the Jags and get in via a tiebreaker. Of note, if the Texans go 2-0 and the Jags go 1-1, then both teams will be at 12-5. The two teams split their season series, but the Texans would win the division thanks to the division tiebreaker (5-1 vs. 4-2).
Teams in the Hunt (and Closing Schedules)
The Colts are down but not out. They need to win their final two games and hope the Houston Texans lose at the Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs. If that happens, both teams would be tied at 10-7, and the Colts would get in on the strength of victory tiebreaker, per Jack McKessy of USA Today.
The Ravens have a very tough road to the playoffs, especially with quarterback Lamar Jackson now doubtful for Saturday at the Green Bay Packers with a back injury. If Baltimore loses that game, or the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the host Cleveland Browns on Sunday, then the Ravens are home for the postseason.
However, a Ravens win and a Steelers loss will lead to a winner-take-all game for the AFC North in Week 18. If Baltimore wins, the Ravens and Steelers would be tied at 9-8. However, Baltimore would have the better division record (4-2 vs. 3-3) and get the tiebreaker.
