The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

admin-cdn4 hours ago

0 0 13 minutes read

The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Welcome to Week 17. Known to the initiated as FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK!

In case you’re wondering, yes, the Primer will be here next week as well to help everyone who still has active fantasy leagues and delayed championship weeks. If you’ve made it this far, we only have a little way left to travel. That pot of prize money is in sight. Let’s bring it home.

Welcome to the Week 17 Primer. Enjoy.

Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer

Fantasy Football Primer

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Since Week 5, Jaylen Waddle has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 24.2% target share, 65.9 receiving yards per game, 2.77 yards per route run, and a 32.2% first-read share. In those 11 games, Waddle has had six red zone targets and 13 deep targets. He’s been outstanding on a per-route basis. The problem with the Miami offense these days is its run-centric nature, which caps Waddle’s volume weekly. Waddle is a strong WR2 this week with WR1 upside if Quinn Ewers can have another solid performance. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Last week, Tampa Bay condensed its starting wide receiver room to only Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Only Godwin and Evans had route shares above 73% last week. Godwin logged a 76.7% route share with a 23.1% target share, 30 receiving yards, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 33.3% first-read share. Godwin maintained his role in the slot, running 65.2% of his routes from the inside. Since Week 13, Godwin has had an 18.6% target share, 45.8 receiving yards per game, 1.69 yards per route run, and a 24% first-read share. In those four games, Godwin has had four red zone targets and one deep target with three top-36 weekly finishes (WR33, WR27, WR24). This week, he’s a strong play again. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Baker Mayfield hasn’t been the same quarterback in the back half of the season. Maybe all the injuries have caught up to him, or he’s just in a funk. I don’t know, but Mayfield has fallen off from his strong early-season play. Since Week 12, he has been the QB27 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 12, among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, 27th in catchable target rate, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. This week offers a matchup for him to at least provide decent QB2 production. Since Week 12, Miami has ranked 15th in yards per attempt and success rate per dropback while allowing the 12th-highest passer rating and the tenth-most passing touchdowns (tied).

Quinn Ewers (QB)

Last week, Quinn Ewers was the QB26 in fantasy, but he played better than I expected he would. Yes, I know he had zero passing touchdowns and two picks, but his per-dropback numbers were surprisingly good. Last week, among 27 qualifying quarterbacks, Ewers ranked sixth in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 14th in aDOT, and sixth in catchable target rate. He could surprisingly flirt with QB1 numbers this week if he can withstand the Buc’s blitz, but their pass rush hasn’t been getting home (since Week 12 they have the 11th-lowest pressure rate) so Ewers should have time in the pocket. Since Week 12, the Bucs have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the third-highest CPOE.

Darren Waller (TE)

Last week, Darren Waller saw his route share dip to 51.6% with a 16.7% target share, 40 receiving yards, 2.50 yards per route run, and a 17.4% first-read share. Waller is essentially the Dalton Kincaid of South Beach now. He’s locked in a run-first offense with a part-time role in the offense. In his last four games, Waller has had three red zone targets and four deep targets. That’s enough high cholesterol usage and efficiency to propel Waller to a TE1 finish this week, but there’s risk here. There’s no doubt about that. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most yards per target and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

Last week was nightmare fuel for Emeka Egbuka stakeholders as his route share dipped to 50% and he became the clear third option in the passing offense, who was splitting snaps with Jalen McMillan. To make matters worse McMIllan had a higher target share and first-read share than Egbuka. Last week, Egbuka had only a 7.7% target share and 5.6% first-read share. It’s impossible to start Egbuka with any confidence this week. If his playing time bounces back this week, I could be massively wrong about him, but we have no assurances that WILL HAPPEN. Sit Egbuka this week. Since Week 10, Miami has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target and ranked 18th in fantasy points versus perimeter wide receivers.

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

*TreVeyon Henderson remains in the concussion protocol. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday. If he clears the protocol, he should be in your lineups.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Rhamondre Stevenson is a strong RB2/flex with his ceiling and floor being determined by TreVeyon Henderson‘s availability this week. Since Week 13, he has averaged 11.4 touches and 78.3 total yards. Among 48 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and seventh in missed tackle rate. He should have no problems finding running room this week against the Jets’ horrible run defense. Since Week 12, New York has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest explosive run rate, and the third-most yards after contact per attempt.

Breece Hall (RB)

Breece Hall is a strong RB2 again this week. Hall is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.6 touches and 85.7 total yards. Among 48 qualifying backs, Hall ranks seventh in explosive run rate and 16th in missed tackle rate. Hall should have running lanes this week despite dealing with a limited offense led by Brady Cook. Since Week 12, New England has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the highest rushing success rate, and the highest yards before contact per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Last week, Stefon Diggs saw his route share bump to 78.4%, which was the first game he had more than a 58.6% route share since Week 11. With the Patriots being big-time favorites this week, I expect the Patriots to give him a route share in the 50-60% range this week. Diggs is the WR27 in fantasy points per game with a 20% target share, 57.9 receiving yards per game, 2.39 yards per route run, and a 22.2% first-read share. Diggs has had 11 red zone targets and ten deep targets. Since Week 12, the Jets have allowed the 14th-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in receiving yards per game.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Over the last two games with Brady Cook at the helm, Mitchell has had a 22.3% target share, a 44.2% air-yard share, 50.3 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, and a 24.5% first-read share. He has had WR14 and WR55 weekly scoring finishes while seeing one red zone and three deep targets. Mitchell is a volume-based PPR flex. Since Week 12, New England has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Kyle Williams (WR)

Kyle Williams will play the Kayshon Boutte role this week as New England’s field stretcher. Williams has had a 12% target per route run rate, 1.36 yards per route run, and a 20.2 aDOT this season. Williams has seven deep targets (43.7% of his target volume) and zero red zone targets. Williams is a deep league flex with a wide range of outcomes this week. Since Week 12, the Jets have allowed the 14th-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in receiving yards per game.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with five TE1 weekly scoring outings this season. Henry has a 16.7% target share with 44.2 receiving yards per game, 1.63 yards per route run, and an 18.6% first-read share. Henry has had a whopping 18 red zone targets and six deep targets. Henry could be a TE1 again this week. Since Week 10, the Jets have allowed the 14th-highest yards per target and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Brady Cook (QB)

Brady Cook isn’t in play this week. In his two NFL starts, he has finished as the QB26 and QB31 in weekly scoring with a 1:4 passing touchdown to interception ratio. He hasn’t cleared 200 passing yards or 5.5 yards per attempt in either start. The Patriots have continued to field a strong pass defense. Since Week 12, New England has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, and the 11th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

*Harold Fannin Jr. popped up on the injury report late this week with a groin injury. He has stated he’ll be good to go this week. If he is active, he should be in fantasy lineups.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Jaylen Warren is the RB19 in fantasy points per game. Since Week 13, Warren has averaged 13.5 touches and 76.3 total yards with a 50% snap rate and 34.1% route share as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. Overall, among 54 qualifying backs, Warren ranks fifth in missed tackle rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Warren is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside again this week. Since Week 12, Cleveland has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB)

Since Week 13, Gainwell has been the RB10 in fantasy points per game, averaging 12.8 touches and 85.3 total yards with a 49.1% snap rate, a 48.1% route share, and a 16.7% target share. Overall, among 54 qualifying backs, Gainwell is 15th in explosive run rate and eighth in missed tackle rate. Gainwell is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside again this week. Since Week 12, Cleveland has allowed the 14th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest rushing touchdown rate, and the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Dylan Sampson (RB)

Dylan Sampson could be Cleveland’s lead back this week. He has been listed as questionable (hand) after practicing on a limited basis all week. Among 66 qualifying backs, Sampson ranks 25th in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackle rate, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Sampson is a solid volume-driven flex play this week that could easily push for 15-20 touches. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest rushing success rate.

Raheim Sanders (RB)

Last week, Raheim Sanders took over the early down role for Cleveland, finishing with 12 touches and 46 total yards. Sanders didn’t manage any explosive runs, but he had a 7% missed tackle rate and 2.86 yards after contact per attempt. If Dylan Sampson is active, he could operate as Cleveland’s bellcow, or he could take over the passing-down work while also having a prominent early-down role. Sanders is a risky flex play if Sampson is active, but he could be an RB2/3 if Sampson is out. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest rushing success rate.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers is the QB21 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings in weekly scoring this season. Rodgers should return low-end QB2 numbers this week. Among 45 qualifying passers, he ranks 11th in passing touchdowns (tied), first in percentage of passing yards from yards after the catch (65.9%), and 22nd in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback. The Browns’ pass defense has remained strong. Since Week 12, they have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the tenth-lowest CPOE, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Shedeur Sanders (QB)

Shedeur Sanders hasn’t finished higher than QB18 in weekly scoring outside of his game against Tennessee. Since Week 12, among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, he has ranked 18th in passing yards per game, 19th in yards per attempt, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 25th in catchable target rate. Sanders is a low-end QB2 again this week. Since Week 12, Pittsburgh has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 16th in success rate per dropback, and has allowed the fifth-lowest CPOE.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Since Week 12, Jerry Jeudy has been the WR52 in fantasy points per game with a 13.1% target share, 35 receiving yards per game, 1.16 yards per route run, and a 17.5% first-read share. In those five games, Jeudy has had zero red zone targets and five deep targets. Jeudy has finished higher than WR59 in weekly scoring only once during this stretch. Sit Jeudy again this week. Pittsburgh’s pass defense has toughened up. Since Week 12, the Steelers have allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyler Shough (QB)

Since Week 10, Tyler Shough has been the QB12 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings in weekly scoring. Shough has had at least 18 rushing yards in four of his last six games with two rushing scores. Since Week 10, among 33 qualifying passers, Shough has ranked 16th in yards per attempt, eighth in passing yards per game, second in CPOE, tenth in catchable target rate, and 19th in hero throw rate. Shough could easily be a QB1 again this week. Since Week 12, Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game, the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the second-highest passer rating, and the tenth-highest success rate per dropback. Shough should chuck (it).

Tony Pollard (RB)

Tony Pollard has been running like a man possessed over the last three weeks as the RB9 in fantasy points per game, averaging 20.3 touches and 125 total yards per game. He isn’t going to offer much in the passing game, though. During that span, he has only two targets, one reception, and eight receiving yards. He has rattled off three straight 100-yard rushing performances. Since Week 14, Pollard has been on fire with an 8.3% explosive run rate and a 17% missed tackle rate. Pollard should have success on the ground again this week. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the 11th-most rushing yards per game while having the 12th-lowest stuff rate and sitting at 17th in yards before contact per attempt.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Last week was a vintage Taysom Hill game as he had his highest snap rate of the season (43.6%) while catching four passes for 36 yards, chucking a 38-yard pass for a touchdown, and running the ball 12 times for 42 yards on the ground. Hill finished last week as the TE8 in fantasy. Hill could easily be a TE1 again this week with his Swiss army knife usage.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Since Week 14, Cam Ward has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns in each game. Last week, he eclipsed 8.0 yards per attempt for the first time all season. On the surface, it looks like Ward has been improving, but he’s still struggling with his accuracy. Since Week 14, among 36 qualifying passers, he has ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, 27th in catchable target rate, and 16th in hero throw rate. Ward will struggle this week against an improved Saints’ pass defense. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.

Audric Estime (RB)

Audric Estime was the Saints’ lead back last week, and he’ll reprise the role again this week. Unfortunately, the starting role didn’t amount to much for Estime last week. He played 57.7% of the snaps with only eight touches and 36 total yards. Taysom Hill essentially operated as the team’s “real” starting running back. Last week was essentially “it” if Estime was going to pay off as a flex play. Sit him this week. Since Week 12, Tennessee has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game, the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest missed tackle rate.

*I’m not trusting a Titans’ pass catching option this week with fantasy football championships on the line. The Saints’ pass defense has also improved a ton over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and the third-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers. I can’t trust the volatility of this passing attack in the most pivotal week of the fantasy season.*

admin-cdn4 hours ago

0 0 13 minutes read