For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 17 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. Disclaimer: Don’t actually listen to anything I say here, as I have had an absolutely horrendous season picking games.
We published our Christmas / Saturday game picks on Christmas. We’ll also note which outcome is best for the Eagles for each game.
Cardinals at Bengals (-7): In a recent article for NFL.com, Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero strongly hinted that Jonathan Gannon will return for a fourth season with the Cardinals.
It feels like ages ago that the Cardinals started 2-0. Since then, they’ve lost 11 out of 12 games as the offense was increasingly decimated by injuries, including a foot sprain that has sidelined quarterback Kyler Murray since Week 5 and countless hits to receivers and running backs.
Owner Michael Bidwill has been supportive of coach Jonathan Gannon, who overachieved with a rebuilding roster in his first two seasons, jumping from 4-13 to 8-9 last season. His young staff, including offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, has continued to grow into their roles on the job. And Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort have yet to pick their own QB, taking on Murray — with a contract that fully guarantees him $36.8 million next season, plus another $19.5 million if he’s on the roster March 15 — when they were hired in 2023.
With potentially a new QB, can the Cardinals make a leap back toward contention next season in a division in which the other three teams are all currently competing for the NFC’s No. 1 seed? If Bidwill decides the answer is yes, the sense is he’ll stay the course. Putting all the factors together and noting the overwhelming number of injuries this year, one wouldn’t expect a change in Arizona.
First of all, the argument that Gannon and Ossenfort “have yet to pick their own QB” is laughable, considering that they have been in place for three offseasons. The team has made 28 picks in the draft, and they’ve only used one to select a quarterback. That was Clayton Tune, in the fifth round of the 2023 draft. Not using any real resources on a quarterback does not give head coaches and general managers immunity from accountability. It should be the opposite, frankly.
Secondly, “overachieved?” GTFOH, lol. They were 6-4 last season, and then lost five of their last seven and missed the playoffs. Nobody could have possibly been happy with that season.
One measure that I like for coaches on the hot seat is career win/loss differential. If you’re deep into the negative teens, you’ve very likely done a bad job, and you’ve had a reasonable enough amount of time to turn things around.
Two head coaches got fired in-season this year, Brian Callahan (Titans) and Brian Daboll (Giants). Callahan was 4-19 (-15) when he got fired. Daboll was 20-40-1 (-20).
Callahan and Daboll aside, since 2022, 17 head coaches have been fired, and two — Bill Belichick (Patriots) and Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) — were categorized as “mutual decisions” to part ways. Here are those 17 head coaches (18 if you count Frank Reich twice) who have been canned in the last three years, and what their win-loss differentials were at the time of their firings:
Coach W/L +/- Coach W/L +/- Pete Carroll, Seahawks +48 Jerod Mayo, Patriots -9 Mike Vrabel, Titans +9Arthur Smith, Falcons -9 Frank Reich, Colts +7Frank Reich, Panthers -9 Brandon Staley, Chargers 0Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals -9 Dennis Allen, Saints -7Lovie Smith, Texans -10 Doug Pederson, Jaguars -7Ron Rivera, Commanders -14 Josh McDaniels, Raiders -7Robert Saleh, Jets -16 Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos -7Matt Rhule, Panthers -16 Antonio Pierce, Raiders -8Matt Eberflus, Bears -18
Gannon is 15-34 (-19), worse than all of the above coaches, with a chance to also pass Daboll’s -20. And he hit a player! Lol.
Just say the real reason Gannon has a chance to remain the head coach, which is that the cheap-ass owner doesn’t want to pay him to go be a a defensive backs coach for some other team.
Anyway, sorry. I went on a little rant there on a totally meaningless game. I just feel bad for the Cardinals’ eight fans.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: A Cardinals loss is ideal, as that would keep Arizona ahead of the Commanders in the draft order.
Seahawks (-7) at Panthers: The Panthers shocked the Rams a few weeks ago, which helped the Seahawks gain control of the NFC West. The Seahawks will try to avoid that same fate. A Panthers loss would ensure a Bucs-Panthers Week 18 games for the division. That would be mildly fun to watch.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: There are paths to the 2 seed with a Seahawks loss, but it’s probably best if the Eagles just lock up at least the 3 seed with a Panthers loss.
Steelers (-3) at Browns: With the Ravens’ win on Saturday, the pressure is on the Steelers to beat the Browns to win the AFC North.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: The Browns will jump the Giants in the draft order if they lose and the Giants win.
Saints (-1.5) at Titans: The Saints have actually been pretty good to close the season. They have won three straight, and have continued to play hard.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: A Titans loss is ideal, as that would keep Tennessee ahead of the Commanders in the draft order.
Buccaneers (-6) at Dolphins: NFC teams that made the playoffs in 2024, but are already eliminated in 2025: Lions, Vikings, Commanders, and maybe coming soon… the Buccaneers, who were 6-2 at one point, but have lost seven of their last nine games.
The Dolphins suck too, but they’ve been better in the back half of the season. I really want to pick them here, but Quinn Ewers is their quarterback, and they have like 20 guys on IR.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: Personally, I’d like to see a meaningful Bucs-Panthers playoff game Week 18, and a Bucs win ensures that.
Jaguars (-5.5) at Colts: The Jags were quietly pounding on lesser teams during a five game winning streak in which they beat their opponents by a combined score of 171-72. They then went into Denver and beat the Broncos by 14. They’re legit.
But also, while Philip Rivers was a fun story for a couple weeks and he improbably helped the Colts score 27 points on Monday Night Football in Week 16 solely via his football IQ, that dude has a rag arm. Which, I mean, of course he does! He’s 44! If he starts again, the Jaguars are going to sit on shorter routes all day and it’s going to be ugly. If Rivers doesn’t start, then the Colts will be starting someone they deemed to be not as good as a grandfather they had to pull out of almost five years of retirement.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: The Colts could jump the Cowboys in the draft order if they lose their final two games.
Patriots (-13.5) at Jets: The Jets have lost their last three games by a combined score of 111-36. The Pats can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Jets and a Bills loss to the Eagles.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: A Jets loss is ideal, as that would keep them ahead of the Commanders in the draft order.
Giants at Raiders (-1.5): This is actually a huge game that will likely decide who gets the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Via Tankathon:
The Raiders placed TE Brock Bowers on injured reserve and they informed an irate Maxx Crosby that he would be shut down for the season.
Scoopage: Raiders told Maxx Crosby they want to shut him down last two games. Crosby, who has played with injuries for much of the year, vehemently disagreed and has left the building @nflonfox has learned. This could lead to questions on his future in Vegas
— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) December 26, 2025
Bowers and Crosby are the Raiders’ only good players. Kudos to them for seeing the big picture and tanking for the No. 1 pick.
Of course, the Giants were furious back in 2020 when the Eagles tanked for a higher pick in a game against the Commanders. The Commanders won, and the Giants missed out on the postseason… with a 6-10 record. 😭
Remember Joe Judge’s angry rant?
Ah, memories. Anyway, the Giants will either be too stupid to tank, or they won’t do it as well as the Raiders, who are blatantly (and rightfully) trying to lose this game before it even starts.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: The Giants will likely have the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss. A Giants win is ideal.
Eagles at Bills (-1.5): If the Bills win out and the Patriots lose either one of their final two games, the Bills will win the AFC East. They also still have a shot at the 5 seed if the Patriots don’t cooperate, which would be ideal in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, because it would probably mean a trip to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, easily the worst likely divisional winner in the AFC. So there’s plenty for them to play for.
The Eagles will clinch at least the 3 seed if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks during the early games. They are still alive for the 2 seed, but that’s an unlikely outcome, even if they win out. The Eagles will play starters, but there may not be the same level of motivation in this matchup.
The Bills have the best rushing offense in the NFL, and they have a true home field advantage, with a 41-8 home record since 2020.
Bears at 49ers (-3): This a matchup between two of the hottest teams in the NFL, with the Niners having won five straight and the Bears winning seven of their last eight. The Niners have scored 85 points in their last two games, and are averaging 34.4 during their five-game win streak. I just trust their offense a little more than the Bears’ at the moment.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: The most likely Eagles path to the 2 seed requires two Bears losses:
#Eagles have 3 paths to the #2 seed:
Path 1:
– win 2x
– CHI loses 2x (@ SF, DET)
Path 2:
– win 2x
– SEA loses 2x (@ CAR, @ SF)
– SF loses to CHI
– LAR loses 1x (@ ATL, ARI)
Path 3:
– win 1x
– CHI loses 2x
– GB goes exactly 1-0-1 (BAL, @ MIN)
See chart for details. 👇 https://t.co/71UEdZZWXz
— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 27, 2025
A 49ers win is ideal.
Rams (-7.5) at Falcons: After starting 4-9, the Falcons have actually won two straight, ruining their draft positioning. That streak ends here, as they’ll be overmatched by this far superior Rams team that is still playing for the 1 seed.
Non-Eagles rooting guide: The Rams getting the 5 seed is ideal, as it would mean the Eagles would at least avoid them in the Wild Card Round. It’s better if they win.
Survivor pick ☠️
I took the Cowboys, and they won. Onto Week 18.
- Week 1: Eagles ✅
- Week 2: Ravens ✅
- Week 3: Bills ✅
- Week 4: Broncos ✅
- Week 5: Lions ✅
- Week 6: Packers ✅
- Week 7: Chiefs ✅
- Week 8: Colts ✅
- Week 9: Rams ✅
- Week 10: Seahawks ✅
- Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
- Week 12: 49ers ✅
- Week 13: Chargers ✅
- Week 14: Buccaneers ☠️, but 🙌
- Week 15: Jaguars ✅
- Week 16: Texans ✅
- Week 17: Cowboys ✅
Disclaimer: I got knocked out of my survivor pool Week 14. Or at least I thought I did when the Bucs lost. However, I caught a huge break, because all 14 people who were still alive in my survivor pool all picked teams that lost, such as the Bucs (like me), Browns, and Chiefs. So, all 14 survived! 🙌
• Picks against the spread: Saints (-1.5), Giants (-1.5) Jaguars (-5.5), Eagles (+1.5), 49ers (-3), Rams (-7.5).
• Eagles picks: 10-5
• 2025 season, straight up: 159-83-1 (0.656)
• 2025 season, ATS: 43-52-2 (0.454)
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 492-428-24 (0.534)
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