We’ve reached the final week of the NFL season, and if you’re still playing in your fantasy leagues, be prepared for things to get weird. Like, really weird. The key here is going to be finding teams that are motivated to compete.
The crude list of teams with motivation in Week 18 features the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Texans, Bills, and Chargers, who all have clinched playoff spots but are battling for seeding. The Patriots, Broncos, and Jaguars are all alive for the number one overall seed. The Texans could technically still win the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss, and the Chargers have basically said they will rest their starters in the final game. That means, the Bills are just fighting to see who they go on the road to play. As long as they beat the Jets, they’l be the six seed, but they may not need to play their starters the whole game to do that. The Steelers and Ravens play a win-and-in game on Sunday night for the final AFC playoff spot.
In the NFC, the Bucs and Panthers will also play a win-and-in game on Saturday for the final NFC playoff spot. The Seahawks and 49ers will also play on Saturday, with the winner claiming the number one seed in the NFC. Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed, and every single other NFC team can change its seeding with the Bears and Eagles fighting for the second seed, and the Rams fighting with the loser of the 49ers/Seahawks game for the 5th or 6th seed, which means that’s not tons of motivation for the Rams.
That being said, I think you’ll find the most motivation from the Bucs, Panthers, Seahawks, 49ers, Steelers, Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos, and Patriots. Any team apart from those nine has either no motivation or middling motivation, which means you may get one half of the starters or even less. That’s a risk you need to factor in when you’re choosing your defense.
It’s an equation we had to do a little bit in Week 17, and we did OK, hitting on five of the top 10 defenses with Seattle, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Houston, and Jacksonville all coming home. We also had the Saints at 11th and the Eagles at 12th, and they both finished inside the top four defenses on the week, so we feel pretty good about that overall.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 17: 5-5
SEASON-LONG: 91-79
Taysom Hill is back in our lives once again, this time as the Saints’ top running back. Eligible as a tight end in most fantasy football formats, Hill is one of the best adds off the waiver wire heading into Week 17.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2)
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (3rd DOWN CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points per game over the last eight weeks, since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to account for injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
DST WEEK 18 RANKINGS
RankTier One DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING1Philadelphia Eaglesvs WAS22Houston Texansvs IND3
The Eagles have been a really strong defense over the last two months, averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game, and they come into Week 18 with plenty of motivation to secure the number two seed and an additional home playoff game. Over those two months, they rank 1st in the league in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 4th in pressure rate, and 11th in third-down conversion rate. They’re now going to go up against a Commanders team that will start Josh Johnson at quarterback and won’t have their starting center, so it’s hard to find any real flaw in this play.
The Texans technically have a shot to win the AFC south, but they’ll need the Titans to beat the Jaguars. Even if that is a tall order, the Texans should come out fully ready to play in this one. The Texans have been a really strong defense for much of the year and have carried that over into the last two months, ranking 1st in the NFL in pressure rate, 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in third-down conversion rate, and 9th in turnover rate, while averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. They now get a Colts team that will likely turn to Riley Leonard at quarterback, which is really good news for this Texans pass rush.
RankTier Two DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING3Minnesota Vikingsvs GB74Jacksonville Jaguarsvs TEN45New Orleans Saintsat ATL56Denver Broncosvs LAC107Cincinnati Bengalsvs CLE138Baltimore Ravensat PIT8
The Vikings’ defense has turned things around of late, looking more like the defense we saw last season. Over the last two months, they rank 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, 5th in third-down conversion rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, and 11th in turnover rate while averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game. They are now going to go up against a Packers team that is locked into the 7th seed in the NFC. Given that both Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs are currently battling injuries, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Packers give their starters some rest, which would make the Vikings a solid play for the week. I’ll likely update this during the week when we get a more firm understanding of the Packers’ plans.
The Jaguars are another team with plenty to play for as they still have an outside shot at the top seed in the AFC. Over the last two months, they rank 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 7th in turnover rate, which has led to 9.6 fantasy points per game. However, the Titans are no longer a great matchup and are allowing just 4.5 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. On the other hand, the Saints did finish as a top 10 defense last week, so there is certainly a path for the Jaguars to do the same.
The aforementioned Saints have been a really strong defense of late. Over the last two months, they rank 1st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in third-down conversion rate, and 11th in opponents’ scoring rate, while averaging 9.6 fantasy points per game. They have nothing to play for in Week 18, but they’ve had nothing to play for in weeks, and they keep delivering. The Falcons have also looked a little more spry on offense with Kirk Cousins figuring things out over the past few weeks, so I don’t love this play, but the floor feels safe with the way the Saints have been playing.
I hadn’t expected to rank the Broncos this high. Over the last two months, they rank 6th in pressure rate and 10th in EPA per play allowed, and average a solid but not great 7.6 fantasy points per game. However, we got news on Monday that Justin Herbert was going to sit out this game, which means Trey Lance is going to start for the Chargers. The Broncos need this win to lock up the number one seed in the AFC, so expect them to take full advantage of the situation.
The Bengals are another defense that has been much better of late, ranking 4th in the league in turnover rate and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last two months, which has led to 6.4 fantasy points per game, which may not seem impressive but is a clear step up from what we had seen out of them earlier. They now get to face a Browns offense that is allowing 10.5 fantasy points per game over the last month. I expect Joe Burrow and the Bengals to put up points, which will force Shedeur Sanders and the Browns to play catch-up and could lead to some fantasy goodness for the Bengals. There’s also a chance that the Browns will be without Harold Fannin Jr., who left last week with a groin injury, and they are already down three starting offensive linemen as well.
The Ravens and Steelers face off in a divisional game that has as much at stake as any game of the week. The winner is in the playoffs, and the loser has their season ended. Both defenses have been solid over the last two months, with the Ravens ranking 3rd in the league in third-down conversion rate, 8th in turnover rate, and 9th in EPA per play allowed, while the Steelers rank 12th in pressure rate and 13th in EPA per play allowed and have averaged 8.4 fantasy points per game, which is just ahead of Baltimore’s 8.3 mark. The Steelers won’t have DK Metcalf in this game, and the Ravens may be without Lamar Jackson, but Tyler Huntley has been pretty solid in his stead, so I lean with Baltimore here as my preferred option.
RankTier Three DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING9Kansas City Chiefsat LV2610Buffalo Billsvs NYJ1811Seattle Seahawksat SF112Los Angeles Ramsvs ARI1113New England Patriotsvs MIA1614Chicago Bearsvs DET1415Pittsburgh Steelersvs BAL15
The Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention and down to their third-string quarterback last week, but their defense certainly came to play against the Broncos. Now, maybe some of that was motivation to play spoiler, but they are going to get a far easier matchup this week against the Raiders. Over the last two months, the Chiefs rank 11th in pressure rate and have averaged just 3.0 fantasy points per game, so they’re not a super compelling play. However, the Raiders are clearly tanking and just allowed a top 10 performance to the Giants, so who’s to say the Chiefs can’t do the same?
This would normally be a situation where I rank the Bills higher. Over the last two months, they rank 12th in turnover rate and have averaged a mediocre 6.9 fantasy points per game, but they get a tremendous matchup against Brady Cook and the Jets. Yet, it’s hard to know how many starters the Bills will play in this one. With the Chargers sitting Justin Herbert, and the Texans facing Riley Leonard and the Colts, the Bills seem all but locked into the six seed in the AFC as long as they simply beat the Jets. That could allow them to sit injured players like Terrel Bernard, Joey Bosa, and others. For me, those questions are enough to move the Bills into tier three.
This is not a great matchup for the Seahawks. We know that. However, we also know that this is a very good defense. Over the last two months, the Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, 2nd in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 5th in turnover rate, and 8th in pressure rate while averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. With the number one seed and a bye on the line, at some point, you need to trust that kind of defense.
The Rams have very little to play for in Week 18. They’ll either be the six seed or the five seed if they win and the 49ers lose. There’s not a lot to be gained by moving up one spot, and if the 49ers win on Saturday night then the Rams will be locked into the six seed, so it’s hard to get too motivated to play this defense. That being said, this is a good matchup for them against a Cardinals team that figures to, again, be without Marvin Harrison Jr. Over the last two months, the Rams rank 8th in pressure rate, 9th in the league in turnover rate, 12th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 12th in EPA per play allowed, while averaging a modest 6.9 fantasy points per game. This has the feeling of a 7-8 point fantasy day if the Rams don’t sit their best players.
Over the last two months, the Patriots rank 7th in opponents’ scoring rate and 11th in EPA per play allowed, while putting up a pedestrian 5.4 fantasy points per game. Losing Milton Williams to injury has been a major blow. With the news that the Chargers are going to sit Justin Herbert, that seems to give the Broncos a really strong chance to earn the AFC’s top seed. Would that mean Mike Vrabel rests some of his starters? That makes me a little nervous, but I think the Patriots still want the number two seed and will take advantage of Quinn Ewers and the Dolphins. However, will that lead to fantasy success? The Dolphins have given up just 4.5 fantasy points to opposing defenses in Ewers’ two starts and, as we just mentioned above, this is not a Patriots defense that has been setting the fantasy world on fire of late.
Over the last two months, the Bears rank 6th in turnover rate and 9th in opponents’ scoring rate, and now face off against a Lions team that just allowed a top 10 performance to the Vikings and is eliminated from playoff contention. I don’t love this play, but considering the Bears are playing for the number two seed and a chance to get an additional home playoff game, I expect them to come out aggressively in this one.
RankTier Four DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING16Cleveland Brownsat CIN917Los Angeles Chargersat DEN618Atlanta Falconsvs NO1719Green Bay Packersat MIN1920Miami Dolphinsat NE1221Las Vegas Raidersvs KC2722New York Giantsvs DAL2223Dallas Cowboysat NYG29
Over the last two months, the Browns rank 3rd in pressure rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th in third-down conversion rate, while averaging a modest 6.8 fantasy points per game. They also get a confusing matchup against a Bengals team that has the firepower to put up huge point totals but has shown no consistency this season.
I will admit that my model really likes the Chargers this week as a top 10 play, which makes sense since, over the last two months, they rank 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 4th in third-down conversion rate, 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 8th in EPA per play allowed. However, Jim Harbaugh has already said that Justin Herbert is going to sit out this game, and that means he’s going to rest a bunch of other starters too, so I can’t trust the Chargers here.
Over the last two months, the Packers rank 5th in pressure rate but have averaged just 4.4 fantasy points per game. They do get to face Max Brosmer, but the Packers are also not playing for anything, so there’s a good chance they rest some key players, which makes it hard to trust them here.
You’d think the Cowboys are in a great spot, but, over the last two months, they rank 7th in pressure rate and have averaged a pretty poor 2.4 fantasy points per game. The Giants are also only allowing 7.0 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, so I’d just avoid these two altogether in Week 18.
RankTier Five DSTsOpponentBOD RANKING24Carolina Panthersat TB2125Tampa Bay Bucsvs CAR2526San Francisco 49ersvs SEA2427Tennessee Titansat JAX2028Indianapolis Coltsat HOU2329New York Jetsat BUF3030Detroit Lionsat CHI2831Arizona Cardinalsat LAR3132Washington Commandersat PHI32
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
