Casagrande: Who gets an edge in potentially historic Rose Bowl rain?

This is an opinion column.

If this Rose Bowl needed another plot twist, the heavens are ready to deliver.

There’s not a forecast out there calling for a dry Thursday afternoon in Pasadena — setting the scene for something historic.

It just doesn’t rain on this game.

Not in generations.

The last significant rainfall to hit the Granddaddy of Them All came in 1955. That was 71 years ago.

There was a threat of rain and a few sprinkles for the 2023 Rose Bowl when Penn State beat Utah. Rain also fell in the days before Alabama lost to Michigan in Pasadena in 2024, before the clouds broke for an immaculate New Year’s Day.

This Thursday’s forecast would be fitting, in a sense, for a game where Alabama is a touchdown underdog to Indiana.

Why not drop a few bands of rain on one of the strangest role reversals in recent memory?

Former Hoosier receiver-turned-broadcaster Rhett Lewis can laugh at the dynamic here. Now appearing on the NFL Network, Sirius XM Radio and the Big Ten Network, Lewis was around for lean seasons in the early 2000s.

“You know what the best part of it is?” said Lewis, who also works with Future Fans Sports. “It’s gonna rain at the Rose Bowl.”

He chuckled.

“And that somehow favors Indiana,” he said in an interview with AL.com. “Because they can run the football. They can be physical in the trenches. And, like, this traditionally should be a game that Alabama muddies up and bloodies your nose. They do. And maybe they do. I’m not saying that Indiana’s gonna run away with the game. That’s just kind of the irony of this whole situation.”

He’s not exaggerating, either.

The numbers back him up, in stark contrast to the traditional reputations of these two programs.

If anything, it’s a challenge to Alabama’s front lines that aren’t quite as dominant as in the past.

And the forecasted rain only figures to increase the edge the No. 1 Hoosiers bring to this College Football Playoff quarterfinal game.

Indiana brings a balanced attack and an offensive line that’s plowed the way for the nation’s No. 10 rushing attack, which is averaging 221.2 yards a game.

If a wet ball becomes an issue with passing, Alabama’s 120th-best rush offense doesn’t inspire confidence. Only once has the Tide’s rushing total reached Indiana’s season average and that 269-yard game came against lowly Eastern Illinois (on 49 attempts).

The Tide have some experience in wet weather this season in a game to forget. The 31-17 loss at Florida State included a second-quarter downpour that saw Tide players on both sides of the ball struggle with footing.

The Rose Bowl field’s ability to handle rain is another question given the lack of rain the region is accustomed to receiving. A 2010 story in SportsTurf magazine described a fall 2009 drainage test that revealed a weakness in that area, so a new system was installed.

It was in place for the BCS National Championship Game that January. The one where Alabama beat Texas with now-IU head coach Curt Cignetti coaching the Tide receivers.

There’s no doubt Cignetti would relish the idea of beating Alabama using the formula the Tide used to dominate back then.

This was a ground-and-pound program in his tenure from 2007-10. Alabama beat the Longhorns in Pasadena while throwing for just 91 yards (on a dry field) in the 37-21 final.

Indiana’s physicality on the offensive line is evident on film and on paper. It allows just 3.85 tackles for loss per game, the 16th-fewest in the nation and 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. Alabama’s 3.4 yards per carry is 125th best while logging a more respectable 4.6 TFL average to rank 33rd.

But it would be hard to call this offensive line a group of maulers.

It’s not one that’s been able to dominate any of its elite competition.

And Indiana has defended the run as well as anyone in the nation. Its 77.6-yard average allowance is No. 3 in the FBS. Only one Big Ten team hit triple digits when Penn State ran for 117 yards on 33 attempts (the most Indiana faced all season) for a 3.6-yard average.

That’s a lot of numbers to say Indiana’s built to run the ball and to stop it.

Alabama’s also as healthy as it’s been at running back and up front on both sides of the ball.

So, the forecasted rain is just another interesting wrinkle in a Rose Bowl unlike anything we can remember.

It certainly sets the scene for a dramatic test of wills.

Either Alabama’s ready to be the bully or allow Indiana to stuff them in a locker.