Welcome to the Defector College Football Watch Guide, where Israel Daramola and Ray Ratto will tell you which of the weekend’s college football games are worth giving a crap about.
The first round of the expanded playoff was, predictably, a bit of a dud. But hey, the second round is here and the games should get better, or at least we hope they will. The potential for blowouts still lurks, and who knows what effect a three-week break from football will have on some of these teams.
At any rate, let’s get to the games.
Miami at Ohio State – Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
There is an argument to be made that Ohio State will just run over Miami here. But I am becoming convinced that Miami has the best defense in this tournament, and the last time we saw Ohio State QB Julian Sayin, he was put under control by an Indiana defense that got after him. He hasn’t played football for nearly a month, and he’s being welcomed back by Rueben Bain and a violent Miami defensive line. I do not have enough guts to say that Miami will win outright, though if they do, it’ll be another 13-10 type of game; depending on Miami QB Carson Beck to score even that many points is a losing proposition. Ohio State has enough to get out of this game, even if just barely. – Israel
Why are they hiding this game during the Jeopardy! Second Chance Tournament rather than planting proudly as a centerpiece on Saturday? Oh. Because Ohio State ought to make Miami pay for its we’re better-than-Notre Dame insolence. Of course the Hurricanes were better than the Irish; they beat them straight up. But to hijack the debate from where it belonged, which was Notre Dame-Alabama, well, shame be upon them. In fairness, though, this game might get the best rating of all, because it is a standalone on what is otherwise a crowded New Year’s Day slate of hangover-powered nonsense. – Ray
Oregon at Texas Tech – Thursday, 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
This is the hardest game to evaluate. These are two really talented offenses when they’re at the top of their game. Tech has the better defense, but if Dan Lanning is the coach everyone wants him to be, this is as good an opportunity as any for him to prove his bona fides. If Oregon can find a way to shut the run down, that will be their best bet. But that’s a lot easier to say than it is to accomplish against this Tech team. Those Texas guys spent a quarter billion on this team for a reason. – Israel
It’s too bad the game isn’t at Eugene, because the weather is supposed to be Cascadian turbo-ass—rainy and cold. Tech is famous for having thrown money at their perpetual competitive problem (which is of course the one surefire way of getting around their traditional top-o’-the-conference conundrum), but Oregon is a field goal-ish favorite despite playing in the opposite corner of the country, because Dan Lanning is a devil-may-care-swashbuckler who is rarely stymied by outside conditions (Indiana notwithstanding). As a more practical manner, college football needs Oregon to win simply because of the illusion that college football is still a quasi-national sport. Otherwise this is an all-east-of-the-Rockies proposition, and that as much as anything will cause the entire edifice to collapse in a heap of its own populist this-is-our-game bullshit. Or maybe this is just a fever dream at the end of an obnoxious season. – Ray
Alabama at Indiana – Thursday, 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
The worst thing about Alabama winning a football game, especially one they shouldn’t have, is that the entire media machine going brrrrrrr about the re-emergence of the dynasty. All of a sudden, Paul Finebaum and his gasbag ilk are predicting an Alabama run, and we’re right back to pretending Indiana isn’t as good as they seem. But don’t believe the hype. I am here to tell you that Alabama vs. Oklahoma was more about Oklahoma shitting the bed than it was about Alabama figuring anything out. This team is flawed structurally, and has no juice. Curt Cignetti is going to dance circles around this team. I know it’s hard to believe that an Indiana team is actually competing for a championship, but we’re here and we should get used to it. It would take a meltdown for Indiana to blow this game, and I for one would rather be wrong than think about the alternative. – Israel
This game has one value and one value only—to see if an Indiana win will cause Paul Finebaum to yank off his own head and coat his studio with a plasma shower of incandescent rage. I think we all know which way we’re voting there. – Ray
Ole Miss at Georgia – Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Can Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss win this game by himself? That’s really the only route to victory I can imagine for Ole Miss. Georgia football is annoying as hell to watch, but their whole boa-constrictor act of dominating football games works really well in the playoffs. There are people who want Ole Miss to win just to spite Lane Kiffin, and Georgia fatigue is already starting to set in. It would be the better story certainly, and Chambliss is capable of anything, especially against a team with a quarterback I do not trust to score more than 25 points consistently. I don’t know, it’s the first day of the new year, a perfect time for some magic to happen. – Israel
Oh, if only we don’t have to hear the Lane Kiffin story line this entire game. Oh, if only unicorns could fly from our nostrils. An Ole Miss win would blunt the prevailing narrative, and Kirby Smart is adorable when he’s pissed. That said, Ole Miss is not the way to bet, and truthfully, having the game in Kiffin’s new stomping grounds is just one more way that the galactic pixies want to make Pete Golding and the Rebels crawl for it. – Ray
Recommended
