3 Keys to Victory for the Patriots in Sunday’s Regular-Season Finale vs. the Dolphins in Week 18

With the Patriots riding an emotional high from clinching their first division title since 2019, New England wraps up the regular season by hosting the Dolphins at Gillette Stadium on Sunday.

Before we get into the matchup, let’s discuss what’s at stake for the Patriots. By winning the AFC East last Sunday, New England is guaranteed at least one home playoff game, and due to their 13-3 record, they can’t fall any lower than the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. With a win this Sunday, the Pats will lock up at least the No. 2 seed but could climb to the No. 1 overall seed if the Chargers upset the Broncos. If the Patriots lose to Miami and the Jaguars win, Jacksonville would leapfrog New England for the No. 2 seed (conference record tiebreaker).

The Patriots are headed to the postseason and will host a playoff game at Gillette Stadium, whether that’s in the Wild Card or divisional round. There are also several permutations of matchups New England could draw, with the Chargers as their most likely first-round playoff opponent if they play on Wild Card weekend. The Patriots could also host the Bills or Texans, depending on how the chips fall in Week 18. Obviously, the Patriots can only control what they can control: Sunday’s game vs. the Dolphins. ​

After starting 1-6, the Dolphins are 6-3 over their last nine games, winning four games in a row to briefly climb back into the playoff picture. However, it was too little too late for Miami, as they’ll miss the playoffs for the second straight year, leading to uncertainty in Miami Gardens. After firing former GM Chris Grier mid-season and benching starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, the future of head coach Mike McDaniel is uncertain following back-to-back losing seasons. Miami made the playoffs in each of the first two seasons under McDaniel, but he has never won a playoff game as the Dolphins head coach.

Still, the Dolphins are a step up in competition from the Jets last week. Since Week 8, Miami is a respectable 13th in DVOA on defense and 18th in offense. Over the last two games, the Dolphins have turned to seventh-round rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who is 16th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in drop-back EPA. So, they’re more a league-average operation than a bottom-feeder, as their 7-9 record would indicate.

Last week, we wrote about using the final two weeks as a tune-up for the postseason. Unfortunately, the Jets didn’t offer much resistance, but if the Dolphins are motivated to play on a cold winter day in Foxborough, their explosive offense presents some real schematic challenges, as does their disguise-heavy defense. This week, there’s enough there to say Miami could be a true warmup to what the Patriots will face in the playoffs.

Let’s preview the chess match between the Patriots and Dolphins in Sunday’s regular-season finale with kickoff at 4:25 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.

Offense Key: Prepping for the Dolphins Explosive Run+Play-Action Offensive Scheme

Although opinions are all over the map about McDaniel as a head coach, nobody around the league doubts the Dolphins head coach’s ability to build a productive offensive scheme. ​

During his time in Miami, McDaniel has been one of the league’s best schemers on the offensive side of the ball, causing conflict for second-level defenders in particular, by marrying the run and play-action passing game together. When you face the Dolphins offense, you know you’re going to get plenty of eye candy: motion, false pullers, misdirection, and play-action. Plus, a lot of team speed at the skill positions, even without star WR Tyreek Hill (IR).

Although the Patriots won’t have to worry about Hill, the Dolphins still have star playmakers Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane to bring to the track meet. Achane is having a terrific season, leading all ball carriers with 40 explosive runs this season. Waddle can still ball, as he’s within 90 yards of going over 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his career, and the Dolphins also have speedy gadget receiver Malik Washington and newcomer TE Greg Dolchich.

After hitting a tipping point with Tagovailoa following a 28-15 loss to the Steelers in Week 15, the Dolphins made the difficult decision to turn the keys over to Ewers. Ewers was the quarterback at Texas a year ago for the Longhorns’ run to the College Football Playoff semifinals, but fell to the seventh round because of concerns about his physical tools as an undersized pocket passer with limited mobility at 6-2, 214 pounds.

However, Ewers can be a decisive decision-maker who is accurate to the first two levels in a play-action heavy offense. Over the last two weeks, Ewers’ film has been better than expected, especially in the first halves of games where the Dolphins are propping him up with great opening scripts: he looks poised, is seeing the field well, and is playing in rhythm. Miami is scheming up explosiveness in their passing by spamming play-action with motion and window dressing. In the last two games, the Dolphins lead the NFL in play-action rate (20.5%), are second in run+play-action usage (71.4%), and fourth in motion rate (76.4%) – basically, anything to keep Ewers out of traditional drop-back passing.