5. Why Sunday’s game could come down to this
Valuing the football is of the utmost importance on Sunday. It’s an obvious statement, but it’s a factor that could determine who survives in the dance.
“It is a billion-dollar business, and the billion dollars is a little leather brown thing,” defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said of the importance of the football. “And in the end, that’s all that matters, is that little brown piece of leather. And the offense’s job, simply put, is to take that little piece of leather and put it in that 10 by 53 and a third box, and our job is to not let them and then take it from them.”
The Jaguars have been fantastic at forcing takeaways and taking care of the football this season. Jacksonville has a +13 turnover differential (3rd) thanks to their 31 takeaways (2nd) and 18 turnovers (tied 13th).
“They’re very sound in what they do,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “It makes for a big challenge for any team. That’s one of the big boulders of playing good football is taking care of the ball and taking the ball away. They’ve done a great job with that this year.”
One reason why ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky believes they’ve had 22 interceptions is because of the pressure they’re sending on different downs.
“The good defenses don’t wait (until) third down to do them,” Orlovksy said of Jacksonville’s pressure plan. “So, you’re going to get first down pressures where (Allen) is going to go, ‘Wait, where did that guy just come from?’…That’s why their backers have so many picks this year because they’re in the line of scrimmage and then they’re out of the line of scrimmage.”
Since they’ve taken the ball away at such a high rate, Jacksonville has given their offense more shots at scoring points. They have 189 offensive drives, which is the third most in the league. They also lead the NFL with 110 points off turnovers.
While that area of the game will pose a challenge to any opponent, Buffalo has improved in terms of valuing the football down the stretch. Since Week 15, Buffalo ties for the least turnovers with one. Since Buffalo’s bye week, the defense ranks top 10 with 15 takeaways (t-9th).
“I think we’re just getting into a groove a little bit,” Babich said of his defense’s rise as of late. “…It is important that we are hopefully peaking at the right time. I’ve talked about that the whole year, make sure we’re peaking at the right time. We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us. We’re playing a really, really good offense, and we got to take care of us first to make sure we’re ready to rock.”
