Why Tom picked the Eagles: Gennaro nailed it; this one is tough. In the end, I had to make a decision between what I want and what I think is right, which is really the dilemma at the heart of this cursed exercise every week. I wanted to pick the 49ers for a number of reasons, including Brock Purdy’s renewed swagger, Kyle Shanahan’s coaching acumen and, ultimately, because I just like them more. As far as defending champs go, the Eagles have been, let’s say, unconvincing. They’ve notched some recent solid wins against competitive teams, like low-scoring squeakers over the Bills (13-12 in Week 17), Lions (16-9 in Week 11) and Packers (10-7 in Week 10), and they’ve handled themselves against also-rans like the Commanders and Raiders, but there is exactly one victory over a fellow playoff contender in which they broke the 20-point mark: that wild 33-26 win over the Rams back in Week 3, which was, don’t forget, padded out by a freak return TD from a 336-pound nose tackle. Over the last nine games of the regular season, Philly ranked 22nd in the NFL in EPA per play on offense — that’s Panthers/Cardinals territory, folks. And much worse than the 49ers’ extremely appealing placement of third in the span, with Purdy returning from injury in Week 11. I don’t have much faith in the Eagles’ ability to move the ball, especially compared to the significantly livelier operation coming to town.
So why don’t I permit myself to enjoy life and ride with San Francisco? Well, it’s that pesky other side of the EPA-per-play equation — the defensive side. In that arena, Philadelphia has been dominant, finishing sixth in the NFL on the season, well above where the Niners sit, in 25th — that’s Giants/Cardinals territory, folks. The last time San Francisco faced an elite defensive squad with a ho-hum offense, one whole week ago, things played out just how the magical numbers whispered they would, in a narrow Seahawks victory. And that was in Santa Clara. This Sunday, on the East Coast, with the Niners’ injury report including crucial names like Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall while the Eagles get healthier, I’ve got to obey the math spirits again.
