Six games to kick off the wide-open NFL playoffs. Here’s what you should play.
The release of the NFL playoff schedule marked the end of one of the most storied traditions in all of sports. When the NFL decided not to place the Houston Texans in the Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET window to open wild-card weekend, a spot famously named “Shakey’s Game” by Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal, the league proved that nothing is truly sacred. The Texans have made the playoffs eight times in their young history, and all eight times, they played in that window.
This year, Houston will play on Monday night instead, against Pittsburgh, to cap off a weekend-long football extravaganza (which also includes the College Football Playoff semifinals!).
Three of the six games on wild-card weekend feature a quarterback making his playoff debut. Traditionally, debutants have not performed well against the spread. It has been one of the most widely cited trends in recent years; playoff-rookie quarterbacks are 20-39-1 (34 percent) against the spread and 20-40 straight up since 2002, per Action Network. This week, the trend will be tested by Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Drake Maye, who all play at home.
Here are my thoughts on all six games, including best bets. All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
The regular-season meeting between these two teams was decidedly weird because Matthew Stafford threw multiple first-half interceptions (including a pick-six). The Rams were stuck playing from behind, and Carolina leaned heavily on the run game, with 35 combined attempts for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. That type of game is pretty unlikely to repeat.
Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, formerly of the Rams, will have a considerably healthier roster for this game than he did for the first meeting. Star corner Jaycee Horn, safety Tre’von Moehrig, and linebacker Christian Rozeboom didn’t play last time. The Panthers probably won’t turn Stafford over three times again, but they should improve on their 7.6 yards per play allowed from that game.
My main concern for Carolina in this matchup exists on the other side of the ball. How will the team consistently score? For a month now, this offense has been pretty anemic.
The Panthers established an early-season formula that really worked for them by running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league. In the first nine weeks, Carolina had the sixth-most efficient run offense by EPA per rush.
Since Week 10, that plan has failed to continue producing dividends. The Panthers are still running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league (when compared to expected pass rates), but the offense has not maintained those impressive early-season efficiency levels. Their run game has dipped to 23rd in EPA per rush. You can definitely throw the ball on the Rams’ secondary, but how much faith do we have in Bryce Young to do that if he’s playing from behind and forced into clear passing situations?
One of my favorite ways to evaluate quarterback performance is to look at how efficient a passer is in obvious passing downs. Of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, Young finished 33rd in success rate on third or fourth down with 5-plus yards to go. For comparison, Stafford finished 13th in the same metric.
Home underdogs of seven-plus points have fared very well in the last 15 years of NFL wild-card history. Remember the Beast Quake? Tebowing? Taylor Heinicke going toe-to-toe with Tom Brady? This has all the makings of a potential Backdoor Bryce cover with a late score, just like Carolina’s Week 18 loss to the Buccaneers.
Verdict: Bet under 46.5 (–110)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
If the season’s first two games between these two are any indication, football fans are in for more late-game drama in this battle for NFC North supremacy. The market ratings on these two teams have changed considerably since the Packers were a 6.5-point home favorite on December 7. Green Bay pulled off a red zone stand in the final minute, won by seven, and claimed first place at 9-3-1. It was the last regular-season game they’d win. The injuries and losses piled up from there, and now the defense is borderline unrecognizable compared to the group that was as reliable and balanced as any in the league for the first three months.
The Micah Parsons injury, especially, swung the market against the Packers, who ended up an underdog in the second meeting between these two teams, on December 20. Fast-forward three weeks, and we have the same teams in the same building, and it’s priced as an effective toss-up. The market took note of the Bears’ horrid defensive showing against the 49ers in Week 17, as well as how Chicago followed that up at home with a dud against the already-eliminated Lions in Week 18.
The biggest challenge in assessing this game is trying to figure out what the Packers defense is at this point. Even before Parsons went down, the Packers were not exactly posting excellent defensive metrics week to week.
Green Bay’s Defense
WeeksEPA/DriveExplosive Play Rate
Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has dialed up the blitz rate in recent weeks to try to generate more pressure without Parsons, but it’s left the back end of the defense more vulnerable to the big plays they were so elite at preventing for the majority of the season.
Chicago’s revamped offensive line is graded among the league’s best this season, and as a result, Caleb Williams should have plenty of time to create the big plays out of structure that have defined his sophomore season.
With neither of these defenses generating much pressure on the opposing quarterback, this ought to be a higher-scoring game than the last meeting at Soldier Field. Add in the potential for some light snow to coat the field at the benefit of the offenses, and there should be more points scored than the market currently indicates.
When in doubt and dealing with two relatively even teams, I will take my chances with the superior passing offense. In this game, that is the Packers, who rank second in EPA per dropback.
Verdict: Bet Packers ML (–112)
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
On paper, this is the most evenly balanced and highest-projected-scoring game of the first round of the playoffs. With Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes out of the playoffs, Josh Allen may never get a better chance to reach the Super Bowl. To do that, he’ll have to overcome one of the worst overall rosters he’s had throughout his time in Buffalo. The Bills have had issues stopping the run at the second and third levels all year long. Their defense gives up explosive plays constantly. The offense lacks players who can separate at an elite level, and this was on full display when they played high-quality secondaries like the Texans’ and Eagles’ and could barely move the ball and score.
It’s hard to imagine this team actually lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February unless Allen goes on a generational run. This matchup is favorable on paper for the Jaguars for a few reasons.
- Jacksonville’s run defense has been quietly elite this year. The Jaguars rank seventh in rush success rate allowed and third in EPA per rush. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has a tendency to fall a little bit too in love with the run game, and the result is an offense that isn’t actually as efficient as one with Josh Allen at quarterback should be. Allen has done plenty to bail them out on the money downs (he has elite numbers in obvious passing situations), but it’s still a difficult tightrope to walk.
- The Jaguars are better on script than the Bills. The Jaguars are tied for fourth in the NFL in first-half points per game, while Buffalo is 10th. The Jaguars like to begin games by throwing the ball, whereas Buffalo looks to establish James Cook and the running game. Only the Jets and Ravens ran the ball more often in the first half this season than Buffalo. The Jaguars, meanwhile, actually passed the ball in the first half at the fifth-highest rate. If Brady tries to match the Jaguars offensively by running into the teeth of Jacksonville’s defense, that may not go well for Buffalo. There’s no reason Brady shouldn’t unleash his superhuman quarterback early, but will he?
- For all the talk of the Patriots’ easy schedule, Buffalo’s schedule doesn’t get enough press. Like the rest of the AFC East teams, the Bills benefited plenty from a favorable schedule of opponents. They did have a few tricky matchups against the Texans, Eagles, and Chiefs as a “reward” for finishing first in the division last year, but overall, they faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL by DVOA this season.
Verdict: Lean Jaguars +1.5
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (–4.5)
Even though the Niners offense was in supernova form for most of the final seven weeks, the 13-3 loss to Seattle at home last Saturday exposed some real cracks ahead of a road playoff game against one of the league’s best defenses.
Since Brock Purdy returned from injury in Week 11, he ranks second in the NFL in quarterback efficiency. Four of those last seven games came against bad defensive opponents (the Cardinals, Colts, Titans, and Bears), and the 49ers averaged 42 points per game in those four. However, when San Francisco stepped up in class and played much tougher defenses (Cleveland and Seattle), its performance dropped off considerably. In two games against the Browns and Seahawks, the Niners managed only 252 and 173 yards, respectively.
The market opened the Eagles as a three-point favorite on Sunday once the matchup was confirmed, and it’s been mostly one-way action toward the Eagles since then. These two teams are also trending in opposite directions injury-wise, as the Eagles are expected to have star right tackle Lane Johnson back, while the 49ers are even more injured now than they were a couple of weeks ago. Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall are both questionable to play, and the linebacker situation is dangerously thin following the season-ending injury to Tatum Bethune.
Williams is one of the most impactful players in the entire sport, but in this matchup, Pearsall is just as important. The Eagles are elite at defending tight ends and grade out well against top receivers thanks to their linebackers, as well as Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell in coverage. The Eagles’ biggest defensive weakness is against no. 2 wide receivers (where Pearsall would slot in); they allow the second-most yards per game against that position. This is not a favorable matchup at all for George Kittle, who was injured prior to the Week 18 loss in which he put up a measly 29 yards. Now, Kittle faces the defense that allows the second-fewest yards per game (28.6) to tight ends.
Offensively, the Eagles have one of the most fascinating profiles in the league. We’ve all watched them enough to know that their offense is not aesthetically pleasing, but under the hood, it’s also very unusual. The Eagles have the most efficient red zone offense in the NFL, but they also feature the fifth-highest three-and-out rate in the league. You would naturally expect these two numbers to balance each other out across an entire season, but they really haven’t. Which number do you believe is more signal and less noise? I would personally say that the red zone number is noisier and not something I would bet on to continue, especially since Philly was actually worse in the red zone last season despite a more effective tush push and a better overall offense.
The 49ers are super vulnerable over the middle of the field right now due to all of their linebacker injuries, but are the Eagles the team to actually exploit that? Philadelphia seldom throws over the middle in this Kevin Patullo offense. On paper, this is a very favorable matchup for Dallas Goedert, but the Eagles haven’t committed to regularly featuring him week to week.
The Niners should play a ton of zone coverage and force the Eagles to be methodical. With the Eagles offense typically showing up for only one half a game, and with the concerns about the Niners’ offensive matchup here, this could be a low-scoring battle controlled by the Philly defense.
Verdict: Bet under 44.5 (–110) and George Kittle under 59.5 yards (–110)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (–3.5)
At this point, I’m sure that Patriots fans are tired of hearing about how easy their schedule was. I get it. You can only play the teams you’re matched up against, and the Patriots did everything they were supposed to do and more against that weak schedule. At the same time, it’s difficult to make a proper judgment of them relative to their AFC playoff peers. They played only two games against teams with winning records all season long—their two matchups against Buffalo. Drake Maye could quite possibly win MVP, but he went up against the easiest schedule of opposing defenses by DVOA.
The key battle in this game will be Maye’s surgical ability to push the ball down the field—the Patriots lead the league in offensive explosive play rate—versus a defense that has allowed the second-fewest plays of 20-plus yards in the entire NFL. Curiously, Chargers coordinator Jesse Minter’s defense has seriously struggled when facing teams that can efficiently run the ball. When they were on the road against Jacksonville, or even facing a team like the pre-collapse Colts, we saw the limitations of their defense against those types of teams.
But New England hasn’t really had a consistent running game at any point this year. It has hit some big plays but is mediocre on a down-to-down basis. The Patriots will unleash Maye as a passer, and they’ll score points, but Justin Herbert should be able to match him against a considerably vulnerable secondary.
The Chargers’ offensive line is their biggest liability due to the injuries, but it’s not like the Patriots have an elite pass rush to exploit this. New England finished the regular season right around league average in pressure rate (12th overall, 15th in the second half of the season).
Verdict: Bet Chargers +3.5 (–110) and over 46 points (–110)
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
The market opened with the Texans as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday after Tyler Loop’s field goal sailed wide right. It jumped straight to three overnight, and the Texans peaked as a 3.5-point favorite before it settled into its current position.
The Steelers’ recent playoff performances have been shambolic, but there is a huge gap between the 2022 Chiefs, 2023 Bills, and 2024 Ravens and this version of the Houston Texans. The Steelers usually limp into the playoffs and draw a vastly superior foe with an elite quarterback and an excellent offense that can expose the limitations of the Steelers’ defensive scheme. That’s not the case with Houston’s inconsistent offense that still has issues keeping C.J. Stroud clean in the pocket. Pittsburgh has struggled against quality run games, too. Houston doesn’t have that at all. Even though Woody Marks has given them some more juice out of the backfield at times this season, the Texans finished the year 30th in rushing success rate.
Pittsburgh’s offense allows the lowest pressure rate in the NFL because Aaron Rodgers is getting rid of the ball so fast that the opposing pass rush can’t really get there in time. As a result, Rodgers also has the lowest average depth of target in the NFL. The Texans are the best pass defense overall, and that’s also true for passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Houston plays so aggressively downhill that the door is cracked open for Rodgers to leverage that against them and create an explosive play or two. Otherwise, it’s really hard to see Pittsburgh sustaining long and methodical drives in this game, but maybe it can hit enough big plays with the return of DK Metcalf to keep this game competitive. Personally, I think it will.
Verdict: Bet Steelers +3 (–110)
Wild-Card Bets
Rams-Panthers under 46.5 (–110)
Packers ML (–112)
Niners-Eagles under 44.5 (–110)
Chargers +3.5 (–110)
Chargers-Patriots over 46 (–110)
Steelers +3 (–110)
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.
