The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (16-0, 4-0 Mid-American) and Toledo Rockets (9-6, 3-0) lock horns in a Friday MAC battle. The contest at Savage Arena in Toledo, Ohio, will tip off at 6 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA basketball odds around the Miami at Toledo odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.
Miami last played Tuesday when it defeated the +14.5 Western Michigan Broncos 87-76 (Over 160.5). A 3-bombing RedHawks team endured its worst perimeter-shooting night of the season (6-for-26, 23.1%), but Miami still managed to extend its program-best start to a season with its 16th straight triumph.
Toledo also played on Tuesday, winning 75-61 (Under 161.5) at the +8.5 Northern Illinois Huskies. The Rockets were a plus-8 in turnovers in earning their fourth straight victory.
Miami defeated Toledo 92-80 in Oxford in last season’s Feb. 11 meeting.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
Watch NCAA basketball on Fubo!
Miami at Toledo odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:14 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Miami -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Toledo +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Miami -1.5 (-105) | Toledo +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 163.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Miami at Toledo picks and predictions
Prediction
Toledo 81, Miami 79
Miami has not won at Toledo since 2011 (11 straight wins for the Rockets).
The RedHawks have a tremendous perimeter game. With a depth of distance shooters, MU ranks third in NCAA-I with a 3-point accuracy mark of 41.6%. But Miami has shot just 27.9% from beyond the arc over its last 2 games. The RedHawks are a terrific mid-major story so far, but one that has been written alongside a schedule ranked No. 354 on KenPom. A league road game, an injured point guard, and a mini-shooting slump of late make this trip to Toledo a big question mark. Junior G Evan Ipsaro, who was averaging 13.9 points per game (PPG), is out for the season with a knee injury.
Toledo has some iffy defensive numbers (76.7 PPG allowed), but the perimeter facet of those numbers figure as being due for some regression. The Rockets have been hurt by a 34.6% mark on 3s but from a shot-quality standpoint look better along the perimeter.
The Toledo offense usually has good handles on the ball, and the Rockets yield few trips to the foul line. Those present some strength-on-strength resistance against a couple key Miami strengths.
TOLEDO (+100) is a slight value in this key January MAC tilt.
No interest; PASS.
There is some Over tilt to this series (the Over has hit in 6 of the last 7 meetings), and both teams play up-tempo, high-possession games. But look for more of a rock fight in this contest.
Schedule-boosted Miami being on the road without a true point guard and Toledo having faced a weak defensive slate so far are some key factors in devaluing the offenses here. If Toledo can slow the Mimai distance brigade, this contest sets up with some tilt toward mid-range looks and a lot of 2-by-2 scoreboard adds.
The UNDER 163.5 (-115) is the value side.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Duke / Florida / Florida State / Georgia / Iowa / Kentucky / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / Washington / Wisconsin / College Sports Wire / High School / Recruiting
