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Indiana vs. Miami: First thoughts on the stunning CFP National Championship matchup

The top-seeded and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers are one win away from their first football national championship in school history. And if they win that final game on Jan. 19, they’ll complete arguably the greatest — and unlikeliest — turnaround in the college sports history.

In just two years, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has turned the losingest program in college football history into a powerhouse. The Hoosiers do not have the most talent in the country, but they have, repeatedly, proven to be the nation’s best team. So far.

One very important game remains. And the team on the other side of the sideline wants to win it very badly, too.

The Miami Hurricanes will try win their sixth national title — and they’ll do so in their home stadium, the site of most of the greatest moments in program history. Oddly enough, Miami might win a national title before it wins an ACC championship. It might win a national title as the No. 10 seed in this year’s College Football Playoff, the very last team into the 12-team field as an at-large selection. It’s been that kind of season in the sport — wildly unpredictable and filled with storylines that even the best writers couldn’t have scripted.

“It’s a reflection of how awesome this sport is,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal after the Hurricanes defeated Ole Miss, 31-27, in the Fiesta Bowl. “Teams have the opportunity to get better as the year goes on. How young players get to develop, better players have a chance to get better, and all of a sudden you have a different dynamic and it carries you into the Playoff.

“You can get hot at the right time, and things could be pretty interesting in a hurry.”

Or you could be Indiana, a team that’s been damn good all year long. That’s pretty interesting, too.

Here are my first thoughts on the national championship matchup:

– Indiana doesn’t beat itself. Like, ever. So, Miami will need to play a much cleaner game than it did against Ole Miss in the CFP semis. The Hurricanes had a whopping 10 penalties in that game (plus four dropped would-be interceptions) and did their very best to keep the Rebels in the game … and give them every chance to win it late, too. Miami needs to be much more disciplined if it’s going to have a shot against the most fundamentally sound and best-prepared team in college football.

– Carson Beck might not want to watch tape of the Peach Bowl. If he does, he will see a disastrous first-half performance from Dante Moore. He had that pick-six on the very first offensive play of the game, a fumble forced by his running back bumping into him … and got sacked three times (after being sacked six times by Indiana the first time these two teams met). I know we all like to talk about the Hoosiers’ offense and its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, but this defense is unbelievable. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines deserves a ton of credit for the way his unit plays at all three levels. Beck is going to have his hands full, even if Miami is able to establish its run game (which might be difficult to do).

– Indiana’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line — and more specifically, its bookends, Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor — will be a hugely important matchup in this game. The Hoosiers were finalists for the Joe Moore Award, given annually to the nation’s best offensive line, and have handled some elite edge players this season. Bain and Mesidor will have to get pressure against Fernando Mendoza for Miami to have a chance in this game. Otherwise, he’ll methodically pick apart yet another defense and string together first down after first down, eating a ton of clock and putting a great deal of pressure on the Hurricanes’ offense.

– Regardless of what happens on Monday night, Miami is, indeed, “Back.” The ‘Canes beat two SEC teams and the defending national champions to reach the CFP title game. They have incredible athletes on their offensive and defensive lines and a bona fide star in freshman receiver Malachi Toney. Cristobal has returned his alma mater to its place among the sport’s elite teams, and expectations will be that it remains there moving forward.

– Indiana isn’t going anywhere, either. Didn’t you see that transfer portal haul??

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